A broad upper level trough developed over the western United States. Strong winds associated with the jet stream on the southern side of the trough brought brief strong winds to the Guadalupe Mountains.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A broad upper level trough developed over the western United States. Strong winds associated with the jet stream on the southern side of the trough brought brief strong winds to the Guadalupe Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 2, 11:31 PM CST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1231 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021
.DISCUSSION...
See 06z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through 00z Tuesday. There is a chance
of low ceilings after 00z but confidence is low at this point.
Winds will be out of the southwest to west overnight. Low level
wind shear is expected for CNM and HOB overnight and will be
possible at the other terminals. Winds increase out of the west
Monday around 18z. Winds will become elevated and gusty out of the
north Monday evening and overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1003 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021/
UPDATE...
Forecast update to cancel most of the Wind Advisory.
DISCUSSION...
Winds have subsided across the plains and GDP is currently below
high wind criteria. Latest model guidance suggests wind speeds
could increase again overnight across the Guadalupe Mountains and
adjacent plains due to the presence of a stout 700 mb jet and
persistent mountain wave signature. Therefore, we will continue
the High Wind Warning for the mountains and Wind Advisory for
Culberson and Eddy County until 11Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021/
DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought much of the area very beneficial rain the
last few days is on its way out soon to be replaced by another
trough to our west. The dryline continues to mix across the region
with strong west winds and very dry air pushing in behind it. The
strong winds will continue into this evening, especially in the
higher terrain. Temperatures are also on the way up with most
locations already in the 90's or close to it this afternoon.
The next trough will move across the area Monday shoving a Pacific
front through. This will help cool highs slightly back into the
80's and bring a slight chance for storms to northern portions of
the Permian Basin and SE NM late Monday afternoon/evening. A
stronger front follows Monday night ushering in much cooler
temperatures for Tuesday. Highs will generally fall back into the
70's to near 80 degrees. Strong gap winds are possible through
Guadalupe Pass behind this front Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Weak ridging builds back across our region mid to late
week with temperatures returning to normal. Hotter conditions
return next weekend ahead of another West Coast trough.
FIRE WEATHER...
Recent rainfall has been very helpful in raising fuel moisture but
near critical fire wx conditions are possible across the west this
afternoon as minimum RH falls into the single digits due to drier
air moving into the region. A 20 ft wind of 20 mph or greater out of
the W this afternoon will drop off around sunset. Extreme RFTI
across portions of SE NM and the Upper Trans Pecos but the highest
ERC are south across Presidio and Brewster County where not much rain
fell. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect this afternoon. Tomorrow
will see less wind with only the Guadalupes and adjacent plains
reaching near critical. A cold front moves through late Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 52 73 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 49 74 50 88 / 10 0 0 0
Dryden 60 82 57 88 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 53 76 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 46 70 54 81 / 10 0 0 0
Hobbs 47 72 49 83 / 10 0 0 0
Marfa 45 76 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 50 74 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 51 74 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 52 78 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MDT Monday for Eddy County Plains.
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains
of Eddy County.
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for Eastern
Culberson County.
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains
Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
High Wind Watch from Monday evening through late Monday night
for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
&&
99/99/99Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 921 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082- 270>282-040230- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains- Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines- Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler- Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County- Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin- Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County- 921 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 /821 PM MDT Sun May 2 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains through tonight. A Wind Advisory remains in effect Eddy County and the eastern parts of Culberson County through tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday A High Wind Watch is in effect Monday night for Guadalupe Pass. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Midland, can be found on the internet at... https://weather.gov/midland
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 953729.