A line of convection moved off the high plains during the evening of May 2nd, 2021. As the line of storms moved into central Kansas, they produced some significant damaging wind gusts ranging from 65 to 85 mph.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ICT wrote it up.
A line of convection moved off the high plains during the evening of May 2nd, 2021. As the line of storms moved into central Kansas, they produced some significant damaging wind gusts ranging from 65 to 85 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wichita, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 2, 5:31 PM CST, 3 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 631 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Forward propagating convective complex expected to develop over NW KS this evening and move towards central KS late this evening. This complex may produce some strong to marginally severe storms with 50-60 mph winds gusts in central KS before diminishing overnight. Widespread shower and embedded storm chances in southern KS on Mon night. Southern plains upper low is currently rotating over northeast TX at this time, with most of the heavier showers associated with this low moving into SW Ark, with just some sprinkles over SE KS. Latest HI- rez model solutions take most of the showers with this system into Ark and Ozarks, or east of the forecast area, with some light shower chances over SE KS. So will trim pops on the western edge. Concerns then turn to the shortwave in the Rockies, and the associated cold front expected to move into NW KS by this afternoon. As this cold front moves into NW KS, it is expected to run into better upslope flow and better quality low level moisture, with scattered convection expected to develop, along the front, with this convection expected to congeal into some sort of forward propagating complex of storms over NW KS this evening as the front drops southeast. NAM/GFS forward propagation vectors suggest this complex will move east towards central KS late this evening (after 03z), with the main question being how strong this line of convection will be once it arrives in central KS. Latest model solutions suggest that MLCAPE values will be around 1000 J/KG just to the west of the forecast area, as the complex approaches central KS, but diminishes the instability the further east you go towards KSLN. Some of the convective producing hi-rez solutions suggest that some bowing segments may move into central KS, but the further east the complex gets the less the instability gets, so this gives me pause when it comes to severe chances with this convection, even with the bowing segments. Think SPC may be too far east with its enhanced/slight risk, as the Day 1 discussion talks about inverted-V soundings across central KS, but latest bufkit soundings suggest that as low level moisture improves, the inverted-V profile diminishes. So think this convective complex chance may have more "bark than bite", as it moves further east. Still think there is a chance of some marginally severe wind gusts occurring along I-70 with 50 to possibly 60 mph wind gusts, but think this threat will diminish rapidly as it moves across central Kansas towards KSLN. As the front pushes SE overnight, not very confident in the convection making it too far south into south central KS, as it moves into less instability and towards warmer mid level (capping) temperatures across southern KS with mainly just some widely scattered showers and a few storms as it moves south late tonight. The frontal boundary will continue push south of the area for most locations, on Mon with cooler temperatures/cloudy skies expected for Mon afternoon. The southward plunging shortwave in the dampened mid level flow will move across the southern plains for Mon afternoon through Mon night. Previous model runs suggested that the frontal boundary may slow down over SE KS for early Mon afternoon, but latest short term model runs now push the front into SW MO, with a warm elevated mixed layer keeping any convection from developing over SE KS. Expect to see a lull in the shower chances for the rest of the area for Monday. But as the shortwave moves across the southern plains, Monday evening, increasing convergence along the mid level baroclinic zone, expected to still be located across the southern half of KS, will lead to increasing chances of showers and possibly some embedded thunderstorms for Mon evening/Mon night. This looks like the best chance for widespread rain for most locations over the next 24 to 36 hours. Most areas will probably see around a quarter of inch of rainfall, but the slow movement of the baroclinic zone may lead to some training of the showers, which may lead to some areas picking up a half to three quarters of an inch of rainfall. Slow progress of the baroclinic zone may lead to some of the showers lingering for the morning hours on Tue, but expect a cool and dry day for most locations on Tue. Zonal flow leads to another shortwave quickly moving across the area for Wed afternoon and Wed night. GFS looks way overdone on its QPF amounts as this shortwave moves across, with the ECMWF looking more reasonable given the limited moisture return expected ahead of this system, so latest NBM has cut way back on pops to mainly central KS. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 Pattern continues to look active going into the weekend, with chances of elevated showers and storms beginning Fri morning and especially on Sat morning. Lots of differences between the GFS and ECMWF moving into the rest of the weekend, with the GFS showing a more ominous chance of multiple rounds of strong/severe storms, as a dry line wanders across the area. The ECMWF shows the system further south, with the warm front situated along the KS/OK border. So lots of uncertainty for the weekend, but certainly increasing chances of storms. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 A line of strong/marginally severe convection is expected to move into central Kansas toward midnight with wind gusts of 40 to 50 kts possible. Scattered showers and storms will accompany a cold front overnight into early Monday morning as it moves southward across central and eastern Kansas with redeveloping and prevailing MVFR cigs across most of the area. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 59 69 49 64 / 40 30 70 30 Hutchinson 57 66 46 64 / 70 40 70 20 Newton 58 68 48 63 / 50 30 70 30 ElDorado 58 70 49 63 / 40 30 70 40 Winfield-KWLD 59 72 51 64 / 20 30 70 40 Russell 53 62 43 64 / 90 40 60 0 Great Bend 54 62 43 63 / 90 50 60 10 Salina 58 65 46 64 / 90 30 70 10 McPherson 57 65 45 63 / 70 40 70 20 Coffeyville 60 76 53 63 / 20 30 70 60 Chanute 59 75 52 61 / 20 30 80 60 Iola 59 75 51 61 / 20 30 80 60 Parsons-KPPF 60 76 53 62 / 20 30 70 60 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && SHORT TERM...Ketcham LONG TERM...Ketcham AVIATION...KED
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wichita KS 330 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-032030- Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase- Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper- Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette- 330 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas, South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight A complex of storms is expected to move into central Kansas late this evening as a cold front makes its way south. Strong to marginally severe storms and brief heavy rain will be possible for areas generally northwest of a Hutchinson to Marion line. The stronger storms will be capable of nickel size hail along with wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Showers and embedded storms will be possible Monday and Monday night. But any storm that develops is not expected to be strong or severe. Scattered storms will return to central Kansas for Wednesday and Wednesday evening with severe storms not expected with this activity. Thunderstorm chances will increase for Saturday morning into the weekend. There is some uncertainty on placement and timing of the storms chances, but strong to severe storms are possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed across central Kansas late this evening. && For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at: https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict Ketcham
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 159 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:30 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Widespread large tree limbs of 4 to 5 inches in diameter were knocked in east Russell.
Law enforcement dispatch reported the gust.
Several trees and tree limbs were knocked down. Power outages occurred in town.
Report from Mping.
A trained spotter reported the gust.
Report from Mping.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 956591, 956592, 956593, 956594, 956595, 956596, 956597, 956598, 956599.