A potent and compact upper level low was located near the Four Corners region on the afternoon of the 16th. Strong surface cyclogenesis developed in the eastern Texas Panhandle this day allowing the dryline to surge well into the Rolling Plains.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A potent and compact upper level low was located near the Four Corners region on the afternoon of the 16th. Strong surface cyclogenesis developed in the eastern Texas Panhandle this day allowing the dryline to surge well into the Rolling Plains. Higher dew points surged northward east of the dryline allowing for strong instability by late afternoon from the eastern Rolling Plains into the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle. Although the atmosphere was weakly capped, strong height falls aloft allowed a couple of thunderstorms to develop in Cottle and Childress Counties. These storms did not persist for very long but were able to produce hail up to the size of golf balls.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 5:45 PM CST, 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 645 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 .AVIATION... Strong winds at the surface and aloft are the main aviation concern for the next 24 hours. An AWW may be required for KLBB for a period Wednesday morning due to sustained wind speeds of 30+ kts. In addition, areas of BLDU will likely result in visibility reductions during the day Wednesday. There is also an outside chance of TSRA in the vicinity of KCDS between 00Z and 05Z this evening. On Wednesday, as a compact storm system moves across the Panhandle, a BKN to OVC deck of clouds may result in a period of MVFR ceilings at KPVW and KCDS, and less likely at KLBB. Finally, some -SHRA are possible at KPVW and KCDS on Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ SHORT TERM... 17Z analysis shows a potent and compact upper-level low pivoting across the Four Corners region with an intense 500 mb jet streak near 90 kt rounding the base of the shortwave trough. At the surface, the dryline was located across the eastern Rolling Plains and into the Texas Big Country with the associated surface low located across the Texas/Oklahoma border along the 100th meridian. Cyclogenesis of another surface low is underway in central New Mexico with intensifying pressure falls observed across the forecast area by the West Texas Mesonet at around 1-2 mb/hr. This surface cyclone is expected to move into the central Texas Panhandle later this afternoon while deepening to around 994 mb. The aforementioned shortwave trough will eject into the southern Great Plains later this evening, causing the strongest surface winds to be offset from peak fire weather conditions this afternoon in the western South Plains/southwestern extreme southern Texas Panhandle. Please refer to the Fire Weather section below for additional details regarding the ongoing critical fire weather conditions. A Wind Advisory also remains in effect this afternoon and evening between 16/21Z-17/04Z for the western South Plains as the low- and mid-level flow intensifies from the arrival of the jet streak. Further east across the low Rolling Plains, surface convergence remains weak in vicinity of the diffuse dryline amidst weak theta-e advection. However, isallobaric wind response from the resultant pressure falls associated with the deepening surface low will act to sharpen the dryline as winds back to the southeast ahead of it, increasing low-level convergence as the mid-level jet streak arrives. The former should result in the development of an EML with SB/MLCAPE increasing around 1,500-2,000 J/kg this evening along and east of the dryline, though latent heat release should decrease with eastward extent (i.e. a more vigorous EML just to the east of the CWA border). The orientation of the deep-layer shear profile favors the formation of isolated supercells capable of producing large hail. However, any storms that form across the eastern Rolling Plains will be limited in both space and time before exiting the forecast area given right-moving storm motion vectors to the east at around 30 kt as a Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline. Following the passage of the Pacific cold front, westerly gradient winds will steadily increase into the 20-25 mph range overnight with patchy blowing dust expected on the Caprock. As the intensifying upper-level low progresses overhead early Wednesday morning, a secondary cold frontal surge is expected with winds shifting to the northwest in its wake. Winds may near Wind Advisory criteria across portions of the South Plains and southern Rolling Plains region, with the potential for High Wind criteria across the north- central and northeastern South and Rolling Plains. A High Wind Watch has been issued for all counties except the southern row (i.e. Yoakum to Stonewall) to account for this upcoming wind event. Blowing dust can be expected area-wide during mid- morning to early afternoon hours Wednesday. Precipitation chances from a deformation band on the backside of the system will remain confined to the extreme southern Texas Panhandle through the early afternoon hours. Wet-bulb temperatures are not particularly favorable for snow; however, a rain-snow mix may be realized in portions of Parmer County while light rain will be possible across the rest of the aforementioned areas. Winds will gradually decrease late tomorrow night, and despite the strong northerly flow, temperatures will range from the middle 20s in the northwestern South Plains to the upper 30s in the southeastern Rolling Plains. Sincavage LONG TERM... Our tightly wound upper level storm system should have made it to eastern OK by Wednesday evening leaving the region in NWRLY flow aloft. UL ridging will influence the weather through the end of the work week with zonal flow returning on Saturday. As an upper level storm comes off the West Coast, we'll see H5 winds veer to southwesterly by Sunday evening with a well defined short sweeping through on Monday. As the winds taper Thursday morning, this will open West Texas up to some fine business spring weather. Light winds are expected during the day (as the dust settles from tomorrow) with pretty typical springtime weather through the weekend. Winds will increase to near 20-25 mph for the weekend followed by increasing rain chances Sunday evening through Tuesday. While the best rain chances over the upcoming week look to exist Monday afternoon, it doesn't look like much of a drought buster either. FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8:00 pm CDT this evening for the western South Plains and southwestern extreme southern Texas Panhandle. A Fire Danger Statement also remains in effect through 8:00 pm CDT for the immediate I-27/Highway 87 corridor. Conditions remain highly favorable for ignition and spread across areas within the Red Flag Warning, while elevated conditions are developing within areas in the RFD. Southwesterly winds will shift to the west at around 20-25 mph later tonight near 17/01-02Z as a Pacific cold front surges eastward through the region. Despite the wind shift, relative humidity values will spike with frontal passage, recovering above 20 percent within 1-2 hours after the front moves through the Llano Estacado. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027- 028-033-034-039-040. Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for TXZ027-028-033- 034-039-040. High Wind Watch from 6 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for TXZ021>038. && 33
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 301 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 TXZ021>044-172015- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 301 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Very warm, dry, and windy conditions are resulting in critical fire weather conditions for the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains. Elevated fire weather conditions are occurring along the immediate Interstate 27 and US Highway 87 corridors. A red flag warning and rangeland fire danger statement are in effect for the remainder of the afternoon. The western and southwestern South Plains will see sustained winds at or greater than 30 mph through this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. A secondary cold frontal surge will occur tomorrow morning, with very strong winds to follow out of the northwest. Localized, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across the far southwestern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. Beyond Wednesday, the probability for hazardous weather remains low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0508 PM TORNADO 1 SW SILVERTON 34.46N 101.32W
03/13/2021 BRISCOE TX STORM CHASER
DELAYED REPORT. NEAR CR 77 AND FM 2286. PHOTOGRAPH
RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB2100186
MCONDERPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0405 PM TORNADO 7 E HAPPY 34.74N 101.73W
03/13/2021 SWISHER TX UNKNOWN
DELAYED REPORT. VIDEO DOCUMENTION BY STORM CHASERS. NWS
DAMAGE SURVEY FOUND BROKEN POWER POLES NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF CR B AND CR 16. TORNADO CROSSED INTO
RANDALL COUNTY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB2100187
MCONDERPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM TORNADO 3 SE NAZARETH 34.51N 102.07W
03/13/2021 CASTRO TX BROADCAST MEDIA
UPDATED REPORT. VIDEO RELAYED BY 25NEWSKXXV ON SOCIAL
MEDIA.
&&
CORRECTED LOCATION...REMARKS...SOURCE
EVENT NUMBER LUB2100188
MCONDERSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Lubbock TX 659 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 TXZ025-026-031-032-170030- Childress TX-Motley TX-Hall TX-Cottle TX- 659 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHILDRESS... NORTHWESTERN COTTLE...NORTHEASTERN MOTLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT... At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5 miles west of Cee Vee, or 18 miles northwest of Paducah, moving north at 35 mph. Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Childress, Northfield, Cee Vee, Tell and Estelline. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3409 10046 3415 10066 3456 10049 3445 10017 TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 200DEG 30KT 3420 10053 PAZOS
The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 136 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:16 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained weather spotter reported golf ball size hail in the town of Cee Vee. No damage was reported.
A trained weather spotter reported ping pong size hail in the city of Childress. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 940353, 940354.