Between July 1st and July 4th, Deaf Smith County received 100 to 200 percent of July normal in the matter of the first four days. This lead to the improvement of drought status where the far southwest was still in severe drought (D2).
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
Between July 1st and July 4th, Deaf Smith County received 100 to 200 percent of July normal in the matter of the first four days. This lead to the improvement of drought status where the far southwest was still in severe drought (D2). A West Texas Mesonet located in Bootleg was well within the drought area and had received a little over 5 inches of rain in the first four days of July. The county had already been greening up by this time, but this rain had helped mitigate the deficit since last year.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 11:46 PM CST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021 .AVIATION...06Z TAFs... VFR conditions should prevail through the first 18 hours of the TAF period. Concern in the immediate term is the potential for stratus to develop overnight. However, only a couple locations are showing any low clouds, so have discounted this possibility in the TAFs. Immediately upon issuance, an IFR ceiling developed at DHT. This will be monitored and an amendment issued if it seems like it will be more than transient. Attention then turns to the potential for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. While sporadic showers may occur during the morning and early afternoon, best chance for precip resides during the late afternoon and particularly the evening hours, shifting from the northeastern Panhandles to the southwest with time. Have thus pushed back timing of thunder until after 00z for GUY and removed mentions entirely from AMA and DHT, with probabilities peaking after the end of this TAF period. Ferguson && PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021/ SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday Night... Decent moisture helped keep the low levels saturated this morning, given the fog, and with little to no surface winds today all it took was some limited heating from the clearing of the fog to get popcorn storms to develop across the Panhandles. Today there's better clearing and heating and thus some of the showers have already produced lighting. Upper high over central TX continues to spin anticyclonic flow over the Panhandles. In general that puts a southwest to northeast flow over the Panhandles this evening as far as the shower/storm motion. Showers/storms will be mainly brief heavy rain producers, but still could put out 1-2" per hour if they manage to expand in coverage and last over a area that long. A half an inch fell in just 10 minutes at the Palo Duro Canyon rim. PWAT's are very high for this time of year at 1.50"-1.90". Tomorrows PWAT's are looking to be 1.7"-2.0", so again heavy rain producers will be on the way. Tomorrow will be contingent on what happens this evening. Models are depicting a surge of east winds, raising dewpoints into the 70s across the eastern Panhandles. This is due to a stalled frontal boundary over southern KS, and the outflow from potential storms tonight. As that outflow surges towards the eastern Panhandles, it will likely push the dewpoints higher. The question is will the outflow stall into a stationary boundary, and if so, will there be clearing/heating on the back side. If that does come to play, there is very good low level turning, and given the high dewpoints the LCL's will be lower, and decent shear aloft. So can't rule out an isolated supercell or two to develop along that boundary. No severe outlooks at this time, as it's all contingent on the mesoscale factors that we have yet to see. Storms will also be possible in NM and will likely try to follow the rich low level Theta E ridge in the western and central Panhandles. Depending on how the outflow from the storms that (may) occur in the northeast, will possibly play a role on the instability being cutoff in the southwest. If the storms can stay ahead of the outflow, then there is a better chance for showers and storms in the west on Thursday. Weber LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday The unsettled pattern continues. Forecasting exact timing for rain showers in this period will be impossible as mesoscale processes will run rampant against the synoptic scale backdrop. Synoptically- speaking...a modest upper high will begin this period in an elongated fashion with an axis from roughly Gallup, NM to Midland, TX. This high will wobble its way slowly westward and eventually strengthen just west of the Four Corners Saturday. This high will take up at least temporary residence there until midweek, and depending on which long range model is to be believed, may apply for a permanent residence and expand after that (or continue westward to the Pacific). So long story short, it's mid summer, there's a ton of moisture and little in the way of synoptic subsidence to keep convection at bay. Atop the aforementioned synoptic groundwork, the mesoscale will continue to drive the finer details of our sensible weather. The outflow boundary mentioned in the short term will likely be pushing SW of the area Friday and a bit of upr support should allow showers/storms to linger through much of the day with even some heavy rain/isolated flooding possible. Rain chances should trend downward late in the day Fri and Fri night. Sat then looks like the best chance over the weekend to stay dry, with precip chances slightly increasing around/after sunset as it looks now. Sunday through Monday night look similar overall. Finally some westerly component to the low level flow may develop by Tue and Wed which could lead to less precip coverage. High temps will be below normal with lows near normal. Simpson && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && 77/7
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1127 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-011100- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 1127 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight. Thunderstorms will remain possible the rest of tonight. Any storms that form should remain below severe levels at this time. However, locally heavy rainfall could result in flooding or flash flooding concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorms are also possible Thursday through Tuesday. Chances for thunderstorms reaching severe criteria are low, but heavy rainfall could result in flooding or flash flooding concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Deaf Smith County along with the areas to the south that were still in severe drought (D2) going into the month of July saw immediate improvement the first week. These areas saw between 100 to 200 percent of the July normal just within the first few days of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 968841.