Dust Storm and High Wind in Texas, January 30, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
823 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

.UPDATE...
No changes to the High Wind Warning or Wind Advisory. But we
updated for latest expected wind speeds. We expect the high winds
and blowing dust to begin in the next 1 to 2 hours. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021/

AVIATION...
A strong cold front is surging eastward at this time with westerly
wind gusts near 50 knots as per nearby mesonet data at Levelland.
Expect significant cross winds from the initial frontal passage at
KLBB and KPVW, and gradient winds will quickly intensify behind
the front as the morning progresses at all terminals.

Sustained, westerly winds of 30-40 knots with gusts up to or
potentially in excess of 50 knots can be expected at KLBB and KPVW
through the late morning to early afternoon hours today. Blowing
dust may significantly reduce visibility, potentially into IFR
criteria on the Caprock and MVFR at KCDS, and this has been
included within TEMPO groups in this TAF cycle.

Winds will begin to diminish later this afternoon, becoming light
and variable after dark. VFR prevails thereafter for all
terminals. An Airport Weather Warning is in effect at KLBB between
6 am and 4 pm CST today.

Sincavage

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021/

SHORT TERM...
An intense, mid-level shortwave trough is currently digging into the
Four Corners region as per latest water vapor imagery. Fast-moving,
non-surface based showers/weak thunderstorms continue to progress to
the northeast across the northern areas of the CWA this morning in
response to the 700 mb trough nosing its way into the Texas High
Plains. Measurable rainfall greatly limited due to the magnitude of
dry air beneath cloud base. The highest convectively-driven wind
gust measured early this morning was 42 mph at Vigo Park, and the
risk for locally strong convective wind gusts will continue
within these elevated showers for the next couple of hours.

At the surface, a Pacific cold front was located across central New
Mexico, and is propagating eastward at a decent speed--the front
should cross the Texas/New Mexico state line by 11Z. Cyclogenesis of
a deepening surface low near the Palmer Divide in eastern Colorado
is currently underway, with pressure falls at around 1 mb/hr. Winds
were breezy across the forecast area with southerly winds now at
around 15-20 kt along with pressure falls of around 2 mb/hr.
Conditions will remain breezy the rest of the night as the
aforementioned cyclone continues to deepen and move southeastward
towards the CWA in response to the amplifying, negatively-tilting
shortwave trough.

The synoptic-scale flow is rather impressive, and is near record
territory as per 30/00Z SPC Sounding Climatology at select RAOBs
across the Four Corners region, characterized by: 140 knots at 250
mb; 100 knots at 500 mb; and 50 knots at 700 mb. As the shortwave
pivots into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region later this morning
along with the passage of the Pacific cold front, the pressure
gradient will tighten with post-frontal boundary-layer mixing
heights extending to around 750-700 mb beneath the subsidence layer
aloft. The combination of the isallobaric wind response from the
resultant pressure falls and downward momentum transport (owing to
vertical mixing heights extending into amplified winds speeds aloft)
will result in sustained, westerly winds at around 35-45 mph with
localized gusts to 60 mph, particularly on the Caprock. This has
warranted the issuance of a High Wind Warning across the central and
northern South Plains, and the central and western areas of the
extreme southern Texas Panhandle, from 6 am to 4 pm CST today. A
Wind Advisory is also in effect for the southern South Plains and
the Rolling Plains from 6 am to 4 pm CST today as well.

Widespread blowing dust can be expected, especially in the late
morning and early afternoon hours when winds reach peak intensity as
the 996 mb surface cyclone and intense shortwave quickly progress
eastward. Visibility will be reduced to the order of a few miles at
times, along with poor air quality due to the concentration of
blowing dust. Winds will begin to diminish quickly by the late
afternoon and early evening hours as the low begins to wane in its
compactness and expands into a broader, 1000 mb low across eastern
Kansas/Oklahoma while the mid-level shortwave de-amplifies as it
pivots into the Tennessee River Valley. Benign and calm weather is
in store after dark with light northerly winds overnight.

Sincavage

LONG TERM...
The weekend will conclude on a much quieter note as today's storm
system moves up into the Great Lakes. Surface ridging will spill out
of the Intermountain West, providing breezy northerly winds and near
average temperatures Sunday afternoon. Upper ridging will the take
hold of the region through the first half of coming week, and when
coupled with return flow on the back side of the departing surface
ridge and the development of surface troughing in the lee of the
Rockies, that will promote a nice warming trend. Highs will rebound
into the 60s and 70s by Tuesday, with a few lower 80s not out of the
question Wednesday afternoon as winds rise to breezy levels.

The weather will turn more unsettled and cooler/colder thereafter,
though the details will have to be ironed out over the coming days.
There is general agreement that a broad trough across the western
CONUS will split, with the northern stream sending a cold front
southward into the region on Thursday. At the same time, the
operational GFS and ECMWF have trended slower and deeper with the
southern stream wave, though their ensembles are a bit more mixed.
If the operational trends continue to hold, the potential for
precipitation returning to West Texas looks more favorable by
Thursday as the southern stream upper trough/low approaches through
New Mexico, providing lift and moisture over the invading front.
Initially, it should be mild enough for mostly/all liquid, but as
the cold air deepens it could bring a risk for wintry precipitation
late Thursday. Beyond that, it still appears even colder (Arctic)
air could visit next weekend, perhaps even with a shot of snow.
Obviously, this is still beyond the scope of this forecast, but it
will be something to watch over the coming days. Either way, after a
mild/warm stretch of early February weather, the end of the extended
forecast will conclude with temperatures well below average.

FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are
expected this afternoon as an intense mid-level shortwave trough
digs into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region, with a deepening
surface low progressing through the aforementioned area. Minimum
relative humidity is expected to fall to around 20 percent on the
Caprock and Rolling Plains following the passage of a Pacific cold
front later this morning, and ERC percentiles will remain at or
below 50 percent while fuel moisture remains normal to above normal.
Despite the well-behaved fuels and modest relative humidity values,
any ignition that occurs will spread rapidly due to sustained,
westerly winds of 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph. A High Wind
Warning and Wind Advisory are in effect from 6 am to 4 pm CST today.
Winds will begin to diminish quickly this afternoon as the surface
and upper-level low progress to the east, with light, northerly
winds expected overnight as relative humidity recovers to above 50
percent.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ025-026-031-
032-037>044.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036.

&&

05/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
342 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

TXZ021>044-310945-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
342 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph, with localized gusts up to 60 mph,
are forecast for most spots on the Caprock today. A High Wind
Warning is in effect from 6 am to 4 pm CST today for the central and
northern South Plains, and the central and western areas of the
extreme southern Texas Panhandle. Where winds will be about 5 to 10
mph lower, a Wind Advisory is in effect from 6 am to 4 pm CST today
for the remainder of the region, including the southern South Plains,
southeast Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains. Widespread
elevated to briefly near critical fire weather conditions are
expected during the wind event, along with reduced visibility in
blowing dust.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The next storm system to affect the region could bring a potential
for strong winds or wintry precipitation late next week.