Winter Storm in Texas, February 14 to 15, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1050 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

.AVIATION...

MVFR holding at KLBB and KPVW with VFR holding at KCDS for now. As
the night progresses weather conditions will deteriorate and CIGS
will fall to IFR/LIFR as a storm system approaches and then moves
through the area tonight and tomorrow. SN and BLSN due to gusty
northeasterly winds will create low visibilities through early
Sunday afternoon. Lastly, aircraft icing remains an issue through
this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021/

SHORT TERM...
The system that brought some moisture and light snow to our area,
and a wintry mix to areas to our south, continues to move east
across northern Mexico into southern Texas. The upper-level trough
that will be the main player in the upcoming event is currently
entering the four corners region. This trough will deepen and
continue eastward towards the region.

A surface high will dip into central Texas, allowing for moist
isentropic upglide ahead of the incoming trough. Along with the lift
from the isentropic upglide, upper-level divergence will allow for
the potential for light snow to begin this evening ahead of the
front. As the upper trough and associated front nears, lift over the
area will increase. With progged sounding indicating much of the
saturated column within the Dendritic Growth Zone(DGZ), frontal
lift, and lift from WAA combined at times, there could be periods of
heavy snow. Modals are also indicating the possibility of enhanced
frontogenetical lift over the far southeastern Panhandle and
northern Rolling Plains which could result in greater amounts of
snow in these areas.  As it is rather cold, the liquid content will
be low. This low liquid content will allow for the formation of very
dry snow, which will blow around easily and cause drifts. Some areas
may see drifts of up to 4 feet. Blowing snow will also reduce
visibility at times.

Snow should begin to reduce in intensity early Monday morning,
starting from northwest to southeast. We are expecting 4-8 inches
for much of the area and could see 12" in any enhanced bands of
snow. More cold air will move into the FA with this system bringing
wind chill values to the area of -15 to -25 F for tonight through
Monday afternoon. With the concerns for extreme cold and significant
snow accumulation and drifting, we have issued a Winter Storm
Warning and Wind Chill Warning for the area. The Winter Storm
Warning will be in effect from 9 pm tonight (Saturday) until 6 am
Monday and the Wind Chill Warning will be in effect from 6 am Sunday
until noon on Monday.

Kendrick

LONG TERM...
Northwest flow aloft will develop in the wake of the departing storm
system. With a healthy snowpack in place temperatures will be quite
cold again Monday night into Tuesday morning with temperatures
ranging from 0-5 degrees above zero. Our next weather system will
approach the region Tuesday morning as a trough sharpens to our
west. Confidence with this system continues to remain on the low
side especially since this system is still out over the Bering Sea
at this time. Currently appears that the best upper level dynamics
would favor the Panhandle but we will continue to monitor this storm
system. As things currently sit, at least some additional snowfall
will be possible for the area with amounts generally below 4". This
troughing, combined with the snowpack and persistent cloud cover
will keep temperatures below guidance (and below freezing) for much
of the upcoming week. As the upper level trough finally moves east
of the area on Thursday temperatures may approach or exceed freezing
however this is dependent on the snowpack that remains across the
area. It does appear that moisture will be scattered out in the wake
of this system so sunny skies may finally return to the region for
Thursday afternoon. If the Tuesday into Wednesday snow event is
heavier than currently expected then temperatures may have to be
kept even lower as this snow pack would keep temperatures colder.
/WCI

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ021>044.

Wind Chill Warning from 6 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
TXZ021>044.

&&

99/99/28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
312 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

TXZ021>044-142115-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
312 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Accumulating snowfall is likely to begin late tonight, especially
across the extreme southwestern Panhandle and the northern South
Plains. A Winter Storm Warning takes effect at 9 pm tonight for all
of the South Plains area for heavy snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through early Monday Morning for
all of the South Plains area for heavy snow. Additionally, a Wind
Chill Warning is in effect from 6 am Sunday through Monday morning
for dangerous wind chills colder than 15 below zero.