Numerous showers and thunderstorms continually redeveloped on the afternoon and evening of the 16th behind a large outflow boundary. A very moist atmosphere with weak shear allowed storms to produce very heavy rainfall.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms continually redeveloped on the afternoon and evening of the 16th behind a large outflow boundary. A very moist atmosphere with weak shear allowed storms to produce very heavy rainfall. One of these storms produced heavy rain over the northern portion of the city of Plainview (Hale County). Several roads were reported to be flooded on the north side of Plainview.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 5:44 PM CST, 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 644 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 .AVIATION... VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period with showers and thunderstorms expected to be in the vicinity of all three terminal until around midnight. Winds could change quickly from outflow boundaries from these storms. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021/ SHORT TERM... Thunderstorms already ongoing and fairly numerous across the Texas Panhandle in proximity to an upper level short wave trough located from the Great Lakes to the Panhandle. Meanwhile, further south, some isolated thunderstorms have developed across the Rolling Plains in a zone of surface confluence with additional isolated thunderstorms forming across southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin in an area of weak capping and midlevel monsoonal moisture. Hi- res models show little agreement with development and evolution of the precipitation fields this afternoon and tonight, which is not terribly surprising given the relative weakness to the forcing apart from the upper trough. In general, think that chance category PoPs will suffice for tonight to start given the lack of clarity from the models. With the upper trough progged to move slowly to the southeast through tonight and Tuesday, the extreme southeastern Panhandle and Rolling Plains may be more in play to get thunderstorms than previously anticipated, and have upped PoPs some there. Will then begin to trim PoPs from north to south with time from late tonight into Tuesday morning as the trough moves further east. By Tuesday afternoon, the departing upper trough should allow for the deeper monsoonal moisture to move back over a larger part of the forecast with chance PoPs looking reasonable Tuesday afternoon given the increased moisture and weak capping. LONG TERM... There has been a subtle shift to the south for precipitation chances Tuesday night into Wednesday with the upper level trough overhead sharpening and becoming more positively tilted, though the highest POPs remain over the southern Rolling Plains. This same upper level trough lifts north somewhat on Thursday, stuck between the area of high pressure building to the north of what will be left of Fred, and strengthening closed low in the intermountain west. Deep boundary layer moisture will remain in place for Thursday with increased instability late Thursday afternoon and evening. The GFS continues to show upwards of 2000 J/Kg, with the NAM indicating a peak as high as 2500 J/Kg early Thursday evening in the southern South Plains. There will be a chance for strong to marginally severe wind gusts from outflow where storms are able to initiate. Locations on the Caprock will have slightly cooler air aloft to work with, while the Rolling Plains will have deeper surface moisture/convergence. It's too early to pinpoint attm exactly where the strongest convection will develop. The upper level trough associated with the Pacific Low sweeps E/NE Thursday night with drier air gradually mixing down to the surface through the day Friday. PWATS will drop below 1.25" for the first time in awhile, though slight chance POPs linger into Saturday afternoon as the upper level trough drags east. The Bermuda High centers itself over Texarkana for the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week, providing warmer temperatures but holding off precip chances well to our west. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 55/99/99
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 251 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 TXZ021>044-170800- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 251 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight. The stronger storms are not expected to be severe, but will bring the possibility of wind gusts to 55 mph. Localized heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with some storms because of their slow movement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorms will be possible much of the week with the highest probabilities and areal coverage on Tuesday. On any particular day, if storms develop they will likely be slow moving and bring the potential for heavy rain with localized flooding concerns.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A very slow moving thunderstorm tracked across the northwestern portion of Plainview and produced heavy rainfall. The Sheriff's Office in Hale County reported that Farm to Market Road 194 was flooded on the north side of Plainview.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 969318.