Tropical Storm and Storm Surge in Florida, August 16 to 17, 2021

Name: Tropical Storm and Storm Surge in Florida, August 16 to 17, 2021
Start: 2021-08-16T10:00
End: 2021-08-17T06:00
Location: Florida

August 16 to 17, 2021 · NWS TAE · 61 events in 23 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 21 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 1
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $13 million
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 61

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TAE wrote it up.

After moving across the Greater Antilles and weakening, the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred strengthened into a tropical storm once again in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near Cape San Blas with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph on August 16th. The storm brought flooding and strong winds to numerous areas of the tri-state region. Rainfall amounts were generally in the 3 to 9 inch range with the highest amounts in Bay and Washington counties. Inundation along the coast generally remained below 3 ft MHHW, except for Apalachicola which measured 3.37 ft MHHW. One man was injured when a tree fell onto his car in Millville in Bay county, and one indirect fatality of a 51 year old male occurred due to hydroplaning in Bay county.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 5:01 AM EST, 4 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 5:01 AM EST, 4 hours 59 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
601 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL STORM FRED STILL STRENGTHENING, EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL LATE TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Monday] VFR conditions will give way to MVFR/IFR
conditions from south to north as the outer bands from Fred begin
to rotate on through this morning. Rain showers with gusty winds
around 35 knots at times will move in after 18z with conditions
continuing to get worse, especially at ECP, through the rest of
the afternoon and early evening as stronger bands from Fred move
in. These conditions will spread inland through early Tuesday with
improvements expected from south to north after 6z or 12z on
Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [356 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

Fred is forecast to have weakened to a tropical depression with the
center located over east-central Alabama at 12z Tuesday. Fred is
expected to become post-tropical as it lifts to the northeast into
northern GA by Tuesday night. While most of the local threats and
impacts will have been lifted or expired by early to mid Tuesday,
the heavy rain threat will continue as models show trailing north to
south oriented convective bands across our area that will gradually
shift eastward during the day. There should be enough breaks in the
cloud cover between these bands to allow max temps to reach the mid
to upper 80s. On Wednesday, surface and upper level ridging will
build in from the northeast in the wake of the departing remnants of
Fred. Deep moist south to southwest flow on the western periphery of
the ridging will keep above seasonal chances for for diurnal
convection in the forecast. Went with 60% across the board. Tuesday
night will be muggy with min temps in the mid to possibly upper 70s.
Highs Wednesday should return to seasonal norms in the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

A wet pattern will continue through the remainder of the week into
the weekend with near to above seasonal chances for diurnal
convection that will mainly sea breeze driven. Temperatures will be
near to above normal with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in
the lower to mid 70s.

.MARINE...

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Very strong winds will
cause hazardous boating conditions will continue through
Tuesday evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Coastal
waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL. There will be a
slow improvement in conditions heading towards mid-week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong winds associated with Fred are expected across primarily the
Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama today and tonight with winds
decreasing farther east. Winds will decrease area-wide on Tuesday.
However, the abundant rainfall over the next few days will keep the
fire weather concerns low through the period.

.HYDROLOGY...

Flood Warnings continue for the following rivers: Steinhatchee
(US- 19) and Suwannee - Rock Bluff/Manatee Springs. Branford bares
watching over the next couple days as forecasts show borderline
minor flood stage by Monday morning. Additional rises are possible
from tropical rains.

The main hydro concerns through early this week are from Tropical
Storm Fred. Rainfall amounts for the eastern panhandle are
expected to range from 4-8" (up to 12" possible) mainly over the
Florida Panhandle coast. Rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches are
expected across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. A Flash
Flood watch is in effect for those areas through Tuesday evening.
These values are track dependent and subject to change.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Coastal Franklin, Wakulla,
Jefferson, and Taylor counties where 3-5 feet of surge is
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   82  75  86  76  92 / 100  80  60  40  60
Panama City   81  77  87  78  90 / 100  80  50  40  60
Dothan        81  73  84  74  90 /  80  90  50  30  60
Albany        83  74  86  75  92 /  90  80  70  30  60
Valdosta      84  74  87  74  92 /  90  80  80  30  60
Cross City    85  76  86  76  92 /  90  60  70  30  60
Apalachicola  82  79  85  79  89 / 100  80  60  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla.

     Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland
     Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South
     Walton-Washington.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Tuesday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Baker-Calhoun-
     Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Clay-Decatur-Early-Miller-Seminole.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
     Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Barry

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 80 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:33 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

35 flash flood, 22 tropical storm, 2 flood, 1 storm surge/tide, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.

Tropical Storm, Coastal Taylor

When: August 16, 10:00 AM EST to 10:00 PM EST
Where: Coastal Taylor forecast zone
Property damage: $2,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 30.020, -83.619 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Scattered trees and power lines were blown down.

Tropical Storm, Inland Taylor

When: August 16, 10:00 AM EST to 10:00 PM EST
Where: Inland Taylor forecast zone
Property damage: $2,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 30.020, -83.619 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Scattered trees and power lines were blown down.

Tropical Storm, Coastal Jefferson

When: August 16, 10:00 AM EST to 10:00 PM EST
Where: Coastal Jefferson forecast zone
Property damage: $2,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 30.424, -83.900 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Scattered trees and power lines were blown down.

Tropical Storm, Inland Jefferson

When: August 16, 10:00 AM EST to 10:00 PM EST
Where: Inland Jefferson forecast zone
Property damage: $2,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 30.424, -83.900 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Scattered trees and power lines were blown down.

Tropical Storm, Leon

When: August 16, 10:00 AM EST to 10:00 PM EST
Where: Leon forecast zone
Property damage: $50,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 30.458, -84.278 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

More than 50 trees were blown down across the county with power lines down as well.