Low pressure tracked north of the region while a cold front approached the Mid-South from the west. As a result, the pressure gradient increased across West Tennessee causing strong southerly winds during the morning hours of October 11, 2021.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Low pressure tracked north of the region while a cold front approached the Mid-South from the west. As a result, the pressure gradient increased across West Tennessee causing strong southerly winds during the morning hours of October 11, 2021.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 11, 5:45 AM CST, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 645 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021/ DISCUSSION... Currently...A 995 mb low pressure system is located over NE OK/SE KS border with a cold front extending to the south into the Red River Valley. Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a pre-frontal trough ahead of the cold front and are pushing across western AR overnight. The activity is weakening as it moves eastward into a less favorable environment. Clouds are increasing across the Mid-South and light SSE winds are helping to keep temps a little milder overnight with readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints are generally running in the mid 60s. Today and tonight...The surface low and supporting mid level trough will quickly lift NE during the day and weaken. The initial round of activity associated with the pre-frontal trough will continue to weaken due to lack of instability this morning while moving into eastern AR and the MO Bootheel. Later this morning as the cold front approaches and surface based instability ticks up a bit (250-750 J/KG) there should be an increase of convection along and and east of the MS River and north of the TN/MS border. The upper support will quickly exit this afternoon so not expecting widespread or even scattered vigorous development. Mostly likely scenario will be a a few strong storms with perhaps an isolated storm or two with damaging winds. Best timing will be late morning (MS River) to late afternoon (TN River). Further south into north MS weak capping from 700-800 mb will limit development. Leftover showers will push east of the TN River and into middle TN and AL during the evening with the front stalling just SE/S of the Mid-South. Some cooler and drier air filters into much of the area behind the front with lows dropping into the mid and upper 50s north of I-40 while temps only fall into the upper 60s toward Monroe County near the stalled front. Tuesday and Wednesday...Upper ridging rebuilds over the area as the next system ejecting out of the SW US lifts NNE toward the northern plains. The stalled front could produce a few showers across north MS Tuesday afternoon while northern sections of the Mid-South see lower humidity levels and a very pleasant day. Highs will be in the lower 80s. The stalled front lifts north as a weak warm front on Wednesday with a few showers possible over NE AR/MO Bootheel. Higher dewpoints will surge back north and highs will reach into the mid and upper 80s. Thursday through Friday night...The upper ridge starts to weaken slightly across N/W sections of the Mid-South as western US trough starts to push east. Upper disturbances moving through the increasing SW flow aloft will interact with the stalled front leftover from the previous system resulting in increasing rain chances across N/W sections of the Mid-South Thursday/Thursday night. Rain chances drop off significantly toward the SE...think Tupelo... where the upper ridge will still hold sway. The western US trough will accelerate east on Friday and Friday night pushing the cold front through the Mid-South and spreading rain chances across the entire region. This system will be weakening as it moves eastward and attm the severe weather threat appears low. Saturday and Sunday...Latest guidance favors the front being east of the TN River by 12z Saturday so other than a few left over showers expect quickly improving weather for the weekend. A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread over the region. Expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Lows Saturday night will be widespread in the 40s. Fall is coming. SJM && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF VFR conditions to start. Winds are starting to pick up and will remain elevated through the morning. Maintained WS for a few more hours at JBR/MEM. SSW winds will be 10-20kts with gusts nearing 30kts. Latest radar imagery shows a general weakening trend in showers/storms to our west. There could be some redevelopment of activity later this aftn during peak heating. Maintained VCSH wording at all sites with the exception of MKL where VCTS is briefly mentioned. With the passage of the front, winds will diminish and turn to the NW shortly after 12/00z. The sfc front will stall near TUP where winds will remain from the W/SW. MVFR conditions can be expected in any showers or storms during the period. 17 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 425 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121130- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 425 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few strong to severe storms are possible today across the Mid- South, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River and north of the Tennessee and Mississippi border. The main threat will be damaging winds. The most likely time for strong to severe storms will be from late morning along the Mississippi River to late this afternoon near the Tennessee River. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. SJM
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A metal flag pole (5 inches in diameter) was snapped by gusty winds in Sardis.
A historic wooden church built in the 1800s collapsed due to strong winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 988308, 988694.