Freezing rain and sleet moved across the area starting Tuesday, February 9th, and continued intermittingly into Thursday morning, February 11th. A band of one-quarter inch of ice accumulated from east-central Arkansas and northwest Mississippi through western parts of the Memphis metro into northwest Tennessee.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Freezing rain and sleet moved across the area starting Tuesday, February 9th, and continued intermittingly into Thursday morning, February 11th. A band of one-quarter inch of ice accumulated from east-central Arkansas and northwest Mississippi through western parts of the Memphis metro into northwest Tennessee. Lesser amounts of ice accumulated southeast of this area. Some trees and numerous limbs were broken due to ice loads with some power outages. The cold air deepened more than expected across parts of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel resulting in more sleet, though impacts were still significant since roads were covered and slippery.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 9, 5:21 PM CST, 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
521 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021
.UPDATE...
Updated 00z Aviation Discussion.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021/
DISCUSSION...
A significant ice storm appears likely across portions of the Mid-
South over the next 48 hours as moist air is forced over the top
of a shallow arctic air mass. The forecast is complicated enough,
but the messaging of hazards covering multiple periods is even
more so. In trying to simplify the process, we've opted to start
the Ice Storm Warning to 6 PM this evening for portions of
northeast AR, the Bootheel, and northwest TN. The remaining areas
in the Watch remain unchanged. Now for the nerdy part...
A broad trough is affecting much of the CONUS this afternoon with
a deep vortex centered southwest of Hudson Bay. The flow aloft
remains quasi-zonal with a low-amplitude shortwave trough located
off the CA coast. Closer to home, the quasi-stationary arctic
front extends across north MS into middle TN, separating
temperatures in the 20s and 30s from those in the 50s and 60s.
Automated stations currently range from 28F at Kennett (MO) to 68F
at Aberdeen (MS). Light freezing rain has already occurred in
Jonesboro this afternoon and temperatures aren't expected to warm
much, if at all, over the next 24+ hours.
We're watching a strong upper tropospheric jet over the Great
Lakes which will enhance large scale ascent tonight via the
thermally direct circulation in the absence of strong QG forcing.
Isentropic ascent will increase overnight, especially in the
285-290K layers. This will maintain broad lift, resulting in
periods of freezing rain and freezing drizzle north of the quasi-
stationary front. While significant accumulations of ice aren't
anticipated tonight, there may be enough to create some travel
issues along/north of a line from Harrisburg, to Dyersburg, to
Martin. With this in mind, we went ahead and pushed the start time
of an Ice Storm Warning up to 6 PM this evening, running through
noon Thursday. We won't see freezing rain or continuous impacts
throughout the duration of the warning as the main focus still
lies in Wednesday night into Thursday as QG forcing for ascent
increases and rain/freezing rain becomes more widespread.
As we saw yesterday, warm advection in the layer around 850 mb
will produce a prominent warm nose around 6-8C. The subfreezing
air north of the arctic front will only be up to 2000 ft deep,
resulting in a classic freezing rain/drizzle sounding. As the cold
air deepens, we may see some sleet (and perhaps some snow) mix in,
but freezing rain looks to be the predominant weather type at the
onset. The front will sag south Wednesday night and Thursday,
allowing the subfreezing air to to approach the I-40 corridor. The
southern extent of where the freezing line will set up by 12z
Thursday is a huge area of uncertainty. This makes the forecast
less certain from Memphis to Jackson but points to the north look
more certain to see significant ice accumulations.
The 25th-75th percentiles ice accumulations for the whole event
range from roughly 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice from Jonesboro to
Union City. Worst case scenario (90th percentile) has a full inch
of ice in this swath with near 1/2 inch as far south as Memphis
and Jackson. On the other end of the spectrum, the 10th
percentile calls for roughly 2/10 within the Ice Storm Warning.
Needless to say, an inch of ice would be devastating. With all of
this in mind, the official forecast of up to 0.35 inches of ice is
quite conservative and may need to be increased depending on
where the bands of heavier rain develop. We're certainly watching
this closely and will adjust as needed.
This system looks to move east of the area Thursday evening with a
wintry mix possible as precip winds down. Little in the way of
additional accumulations are expected after sunset. Then the cold
air settles into the Mid-South. We'll see several days with highs
in the 20s/30s with lows in the teens. Wind chill readings Friday
and Saturday will be quite cold, approaching single digits in
some areas. A fast-moving trough will bring a chance for very
light snow to portions of the area Saturday evening, but no
impacts are anticipated. A reinforcing cold shot will arrive by
Sunday (and Monday), where wind chill values may fall below zero.
Another deep trough is progged to affect the region early next
week, bringing another chance for snow to the Mid-South. Given
the plethora of moving parts between now and then, confidence
remains limited but low PoPs were included Monday and Tuesday.
MJ
&&
.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/
MVFR conditions will prevail through the evening eventually
becoming IFR by tonight. Showers and wintry precipitation will
affect most areas with JBR having the best potential for freezing
rain into tomorrow morning. Winds will mostly be NNE between 5 to
10 kts through much of the period.
SGW
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
morning for Lee AR-Phillips.
Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Thursday for Clay-Craighead-
Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Mississippi-Poinsett-St. Francis.
MO...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Thursday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
morning for DeSoto-Tunica.
TN...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
morning for Benton TN-Carroll-Crockett-Fayette-Gibson-
Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lauderdale-Madison-Shelby-Tipton.
Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Thursday for Dyer-Lake-Obion-
Weakley.
&&Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 417 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-101100- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 417 AM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few areas across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel could see some patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain through early this afternoon before temperatures warm above freezing. Additional light icing will be possible tonight as temperatures drop back below freezing in this region of the area. Widespread travel impacts are not expected at this time...but some patchy slick spots may be seen on area roadways. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is a threat for additional wintry precipitation across portions of the Mid-South, mainly Wednesday night into Thursday. Timing and amounts still remain somewhat uncertain for now, though it appears that areas along and north of I-40 from Wednesday night into Thursday stand the best chance of seeing some freezing rain. Ice accumulations may exceed one quarter inch in these areas, with lesser amounts just south of I-40. This may result in some hazardous travel concerns...and possible damage to trees and power lines. Please refer to the latest forecasts in the coming days for details regarding the evolution of the cold air surge and any potential wintry weather. Wind chill values may drop into the single digits along and north of I-40 Friday morning and across much of the Mid-South Saturday and Sunday mornings. Below zero wind chills are possible across northern areas of the Mid-South Sunday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Around one-tenth inch of freezing rain fell before precipitation changed to sleet. Sleet accumulated one-tenth to three-tenths of an inch. The main impacts were slippery roads with numerous accidents and a few broken tree limbs.
Around one-tenth inch of freezing rain fell before precipitation changed to sleet. Sleet accumulated one-tenth to three-tenths of an inch. The main impacts were slippery roads with numerous accidents and a few broken tree limbs.
Around one-tenth inch of freezing rain fell before precipitation changed to sleet. Sleet accumulated one-tenth to three-tenths of an inch. The main impacts were slippery roads with numerous accidents and a few broken tree limbs.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 944018, 944019, 944020.