Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, August 26, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
648 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Main challenges in the short term will be the timing of various
shortwaves moving through southwest flow aloft -- and the ability of
this upper level forcing to produce strong to severe convection as
well as heavy rain over the next couple of days.

Disorganized and scattered warm air advection/elevated showers and
thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the northern CWA this
morning. Meanwhile another area of convection aligned with a more
distinct shortwave and the nose of a 30 KT LLJ is tracking into far
northwest South Dakota. CAMs don't entirely depict the ongoing
scenario, however a majority suggest the convection out west will be
able to maintain, increase in coverage and track across the CWA
between ~09-18Z. Steep mid level lapse rates, 1000-2000 J/KG of
MU CAPE and 50 KT of effective shear should be a sufficient
environment to support such a scenario. Hail is a threat, along
with strong winds. The big question will be if the storms can
persistently mix the strongest winds down to the surface. Lastly,
heavy rain will be a concern over the next couple of days. PWATs
are expected to top out over 1.5 inches this afternoon...topping
the scales for this time of the year.

Models suggest a break early this afternoon before another round of
convection develops later in the afternoon/evening tracking
northeast out of central South Dakota. And potentially a third round
of nocturnal convection into Friday morning. The threat for strong
to severe storms persists through the time period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Friday night into Saturday it appears we'll see a surface boundary
draped from the NE panhandle northeastward into southeast SD, and
into central MN. Aloft, shortwave energy will be digging into MT and
the western Dakotas. This will set the stage for shower and
thunderstorm potential through this time period. Chances look pretty
good given the upper level support and overall dynamics and
parameters. Could be dealing with strong to severe storms as well.
Models then agree fairly well in showing a brief lull in precip
chances Saturday night into Sunday as surface high pressure moves
across the area. After the high departs, it would appear we get into
a bit of an active pattern for a couple days as a few waves of
energy move across the northern plains. There is still quite a bit
of uncertainty regarding the timing and overall strength of these
waves, but it would seem the area will get into an unsettled pattern
again towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A couple of rounds of thunderstorms are possible today. A line of
storms is expected to impact the KABR and KATY TAF site before
18Z. Additional thunderstorms activity is possible later this
afternoon/evening over south central South Dakota, tracking
northeast into parts of east central South Dakota. Periods of
MVFR cigs and vsbys will be possible with any thunderstorms. IFR/MVFR
cigs will settle in through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...Serr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Serr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-270845-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 /232 AM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. The
first round will track from west to east across the region through
the morning and early afternoon hours. A second round of
thunderstorms will likely track northeast from south central South
Dakota later this afternoon and evening. Yet another, third round of
thunderstorms is possible overnight and into Friday morning. Strong
to severe storms are possible at any time. Hail, strong winds and
heavy rain are all threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The unsettled pattern persists through the weekend, with several
rounds of strong to severe storms possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Weather spotters are
encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in
Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook
page, or our Twitter feed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
524 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 WNW MCLAUGHLIN        45.85N 100.91W
08/26/2021  M54 MPH          CORSON             SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 205 MCLAUGHLIN (SDDOT).

&&

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
526 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 AM     TSTM WND GST     11 S BULLHEAD           45.61N 101.06W
08/26/2021  M56 MPH          CORSON             SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GRRS2 BULLHEAD 10 S.

&&

TMT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
537 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

SDZ003>005-009-015-016-261130-
Dewey SD-Walworth SD-Campbell SD-Potter SD-McPherson SD-Corson SD-
537 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Corson,
Campbell, northwestern Potter, Dewey, northwestern McPherson and
Walworth Counties through 630 AM CDT/530 AM MDT/...

At 536 AM CDT/436 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of
Pollock to near Grand River Casino to 6 miles northwest of Eagle
Butte. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Pollock around 545 AM CDT.
  Grand River Casino and Indian Memorial Rec Area around 445 AM MDT.
  Mobridge around 550 AM CDT.
  Indian Creek Rec Area and Revheim Bay Rec Area around 555 AM CDT.
  Parade around 455 AM MDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Herreid, Glenham,
New Everets Resort, Ridgeview, Selby, Artas, Lake Hiddenwood Rec
Area, Java, Lowry and Greenway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Aberdeen.

If on or near the Missouri River, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 9956 4539 9980 4488 10066 4493 10114
      4499 10114 4500 10150 4510 10149 4553 10082
      4595 10061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1036Z 280DEG 31KT 4599 10039 4552 10061 4508 10130

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TMT