Hail in South Dakota, August 14, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
624 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Storms have developed over the Black Hills this evening. This
forecast area remains on the edge of the best instability. However,
25 kts of shear, 2000 J/kg of CAPE and 1600 J/kg of downdraft CAPE
do stretch into south central SD. With an expansive cu field in the
area of the llj from central SD to the James Valley, expect a few
storms may develop today before daytime heating wanes especially
across south central SD.

Southwest flow tonight will keep the downslope winds going along the
Prairie Coteau into Sunday morning. The llj may interact with a
couple of shortwaves early Sunday morning to produce some additional
showers or thunderstorms across northeast SD/west central MN and
central SD. Models have been a bit more consistent with the
potential over southeast ND and west central MN where the late night
llj will be stronger than across central SD, but the sfc trough
setting up over central SD may provide a better boundary interaction
for development than currently represented in the forecast.

The southerly sfc flow and upper ridge will keep the region baking
on Sunday with highs mostly in the 90s. The llj will strengthen
across the east again Sunday night, so may need to consider
increasing pops again for that time frame even though no shortwaves
will be there for added instability.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

The long term begins on Monday with a trough moving into the Pac NW,
with a down stream ridge over the Northern Plains. A fairly tight
surface pressure gradient will cause breezy to wind conditions
Monday and Tuesday. The Pac NW trough will deepen midweek before
slowly crossing the Northern Plains during the second half of the
work week. While there will be some instability ahead of the trough,
and surface cold front Wednesday afternoon in the western CWA, warm
700 mb temps should limit the overall severe potential. Depending on
model used, the trough and surface frontal boundary should cross the
region on Thursday, per the GFS, or Thursday night into Friday as
the ECMWF suggests. Timing of the frontal boundary will greatly
determine highs on Thursday and Friday, as well as pcpn chances.
Significantly cooler temperatures should move into the region on
Saturday with highs possibly in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Isolated thunderstorms will affect KPIR, KMBG and KABR through
sunset. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Scarlett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
433 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-150945-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
433 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021 /333 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across central South Dakota, and again tonight into Sunday
morning across portions of northeastern South Dakota and west central
Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
530 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

SDZ006-142315-
Brown SD-
530 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Brown County
through 615 PM CDT...

At 529 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westport, or 8 miles north of Aberdeen, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Columbia and Sand Lake Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4551 9847 4559 9857 4578 9834 4563 9818
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 226DEG 15KT 4558 9846

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mohr