A cold front crossed southwest Virginia in the late afternoon, providing forcing for thunderstorms as it crossed a very humid environment. |.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A cold front crossed southwest Virginia in the late afternoon, providing forcing for thunderstorms as it crossed a very humid environment. A few if these storms produced damaging winds.|.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 11:06 AM EST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1206 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front move southeast through the area today into tonight, stalling across North Carolina into early next week. Remnants of Fred are expected to track into the Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1100 AM EDT Saturday... Cold front to bring better threat of storms today into Sunday... A cold front extends from Pittsburgh, PA to Lexington, KY. An outflow boundary ahead of the front brought showers to parts of southeast WV and the Highlands of VA this morning. This outflow will likely be a key player in where storms fire this afternoon. Low level wind fields indicates an outflow boundary extends from near Lexington VA to Bluefield WV, basically along a CHO- ROA-BLF line/arc. Upstream of the boundary, debris clouds covered much of the Highlands and into southeast WV. Downstream, or southeast of the boundary, the air was generally void of debris cloud which is allowing for a rapid warmup and increasing instability. Expectation for the afternoon is for thunderstorms to fire along this boundary and move east with greatest chance for rainfall for areas east of I-81. Strong to severe storms are expected as combination of increasing CAPE and DCAPE drive strong updraft/downdraft combinations this afternoon. Modified RNK sounding for peak heating suggest CAPE will eclipse 2000 j/KG and DCAPE will be near 900 j/KG. Mean wind is a little stronger today due to increasing low/mid level wind field ahead of the approaching cold front. This should make for faster moving cells with a better chance for cell organization. The portion of the outflow that trails west through the New River Valley may see opportunity for cells to backbuild and train over the same area, so in addition to the severe threat, there is a greater excessive rainfall threat compared to recent days. Forecast reflects likely to near categorical pops (60-80 percent chance of receiving at least 0.01 inch of rain) ahead of the outflow boundary this afternoon. This includes the Roanoke and New River Valleys and into the foothills and piedmont east of the Blue Ridge. Northwest of the boundary, there is greater uncertainty with respect to rainfall. Greater stability will exist where debris clouds persist, so probability of measurable rainfall there is less than 50/50. This includes the Greenbrier Valley, which will not necessarily be a bad thing since the WV State Fair is ongoing near Lewisburg and the fair goers and entertainers would probably like to see dry weather. The actual surface cold front is expected to move southeast through the region tonight. This should introduce a northerly wind, more cloud cover, and cooler temperatures. Not expecting the front to make it very far, maybe into northern North Carolina before stalling Sunday. The 850 MB front may never make it through the area at all, due to blocking high pressure to the southeast. As such this will maintain an atmosphere with high moisture content and provide a convergence zone for additional showers and thunderstorms. The forecast tonight into Sunday morning will reflect lingering showers and a few storms. Once the front stalls expect isentropic lift over the front to result in a greater coverage of clouds and showers with embedded thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This afternoon should be the last of the heat with highs in the 90s for the piedmont...heat indices around 100. Temperatures tonight into Sunday will be cooler, but the high moisture content of the atmosphere will still allow the humid conditions to persist... lows tonight in the 60s to lower 70s and daytime highs Sunday mainly in the 70s...maybe 80 for Southside and the the NC piedmont if there are any breaks in the cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Saturday... Surface high pressure moves over New England Sunday and wedges south into the Carolinas Sunday night. With the upper level ridge remaining off the Southeast Coast, tropical moisture will overrun the wedge. Rain chances will be best near the front (along the VA/NC border) Sunday evening, then fade through the overnight into Monday morning. The area will be deeper into the wedge on Monday. As the winds become southeasterly, we are most likely to see extensive cloud cover with areas of light rain, moreso along the eastern slopes of the NW NC/SW VA Blue Ridge. Rain may gain intensity Tuesday as remnants of TS Fred moves inland over the southeastern states with surface winds increasing from the southeast along the southern Blue Ridge ushering in deeper tropical moisture. With widespread cloud cover, persistent cool air wedge, along with rain, temperatures will run around 10F cooler than normal through Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Saturday... Overall synoptic setup remains the same Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Ridging in the Atlantic, surface high pressure to the north and a weak stationary boundary still lingering within the area. Fred begins to lift north and looking more likely to track just to the west of the Appalachians. Model guidance differs on how fast the remnants pull out of the region, but current thinking is tropical moisture will linger through at least Wednesday night. This should allow for some much-needed rainfall for the area. Pattern towards the end of the week shifts back towards a more typical summertime pattern with daily afternoon convection. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal for Wednesday. Temperatures return to near normal on Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of Noon EDT Saturday... Expecting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area this afternoon and persist through this evening as a cold front enters the region from the northwest. Confidence is moderate to high that storm activity will impact all terminals along and just east of the Blue Ridge at some point during the 17z/1PM and 00z/8PM window. Passage of the front tonight will also introduce a northeast to east wind which is expected to result in an MVFR CIG. Front will then stall over the area with low cigs persisting Sunday. Confidence is low with respect to how low the cig/vsby will be for Sunday. A lot may depend on how widespread the rain is this afternoon/evening to provide the low level moisture needed for low level stratus and fog development tonight and Sunday. Extended Aviation Discussion... Frontal boundary lingers into early next week, potentially enhanced by tropical moisture from the remnants of Fred. Will likely see periods of sub-VFR in rain through next week, but VFR will also occur, so expect variable conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...BMG LONG TERM...BMG AVIATION...PM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 437 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-150845- Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin- Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham- Halifax-Charlotte- 437 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could become strong to severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, along with localized flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding into early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-150845- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski- Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke- Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- 437 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms today into this evening could cause localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 151 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:37 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A swath of numerous trees were blown down by thunderstorm winds in a path from Buckingham to the Dillwyn area.
Thunderstorm winds knocked down on tree onto vehicle.
Thunderstorm winds blew down a tree on Sunny Side Road.
Thunderstorm winds knocked down a tree near Ivanhoe Road.
Thunderstorm winds blew down a tree near Cripple Creek Road.
Numerous tree blown down around Draper, with a few falling onto power lines.
Several trees were blown down around the Pedlar Reservoir.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 980361, 980363, 980362, 980364, 980365, 980366, 980367.