Isolated thunderstorms developed over the South Carolina foothills during the late afternoon and evening, producing gusty winds.
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The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed over the South Carolina foothills during the late afternoon and evening, producing gusty winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 5:08 PM EST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
608 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Air quality should improve somewhat over the weekend while afternoon
showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage and intensity through
Monday. A backdoor cold front builds into the forecast area early
next week, bringing more active weather at least through Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 PM: Scattered convection continues to develop and drift
S/SEWD across the western third of the FA. So far, a few storms
have been strong, but sub-severe. Cannot rule out a severe storm
or two before convection wanes, as we have strong instability and
high DCAPE in the area. Fortunately, the atmosphere is relatively
suppressed under ridging aloft. Other than some tweaks to the PoPs,
the forecast was left as is.
The CAMs and synoptic guidance have generally backed off on the
previous forecast of an uptick in convective activity this evening
and early overnight. That said, isolated showers may linger,
especially in upslope areas, as a moist, low level southerly flow
continues. This flow may also help low clouds to develop near or
just after sunrise. Mountain valley fog and stratus is expected
once again. Lows will be near to slightly above normal.
Heights rise slightly through the period in the northwesterly flow
aloft as a short wave ridge moves over behind a departing trough.
Guidance generally agrees on a lee trough developing and some
weak upper divergence moving through despite the slight increase
in heights. The guidance disagrees on the resulting coverage of
convection. The do agree that the mountains have the best chance,
but some guidance moves the convection off the mountains and across
the piedmont during the late afternoon. Others show only isolated to
low end scattered across the Piedmont. Have gone with the guidance
blend which favors the mountains and foothills, with less coverage
over the Piedmont. Highs will be near to slightly below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday: With a 500mb ridge entrenched over the
western CONUS, Sunday's opportunity for synoptic forcing will be
severely restricted. A Bermuda high over the western Atlantic will
help to maintain southerly surface flow...which in turn will help
PWATs ramp up to near 2" by Monday afternoon. A deep 500mb trough
will spread eastward, though the best DPVA will remain well north of
our CWA. Global models at least indicate some enhanced QPF response
starting Sunday night and extending through Monday evening, ahead of
a slowly-advancing cold front swooping in from the north. PoPs on
Sunday afternoon are largely restricted to slight/chance in the
mountains and foothills, as points east appear to be increasingly
well-capped in model soundings, which should inhibit widespread
coverage of convection despite modest SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.
Monday afternoon should fare somewhat better as increased moisture
content, lowered LFCs, and less-stable profiles allow for more
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to crop up ahead of the
advancing front. Activity gradually winds down late Monday night
into Tuesday morning, as the front attempts to clear the region.
For now, have lowered temps a degree or so to more closely match
the latest guidance, which seems to be trending toward slightly
cooler temps for the next few days. This does little to offset
the unseasonably warm temps forecasted for the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: Upper ridging continues to dominate
the western half of the CONUS. Following Monday night's frontal
passage we should at least see some improvement in air quality, as
the intrusion of continental air clears out any residual low-level
smoke/haze in the area. There's a good bit of uncertainty in
the forecast following this fropa, however, as the models haven't
yet reached a consensus on whether the front clears the Carolinas
entirely or stalls for a bit. What's clear is that the Bermuda high
refuses to budge, and as such we should retain our diurnally-driven
afternoon convection on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon - something
that the presence of a stalled boundary might work to enhance.
Late week may feature the arrival of another robust midlevel
trough, which would drive a wave of renewed precipitation by
Friday afternoon. Expect temps to remain at least a few degrees
above normal throughout the medium range forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Haze has diminished and no longer expect any
restrictions, but 6SM may continue off and on through the day. Low
VFR cumulus has developed and may have a brief cig from time to time
as well. Convection just now developing near the GA/SC portion of
the Blue Ridge escarpment. Expect coverage to be higher in this
general area, but VCTS retained at the Upstate sites and KAVL where
chance is highest. Guidance has trended away from lingering
overnight convection, but isolated -SHRA are possible. Chance too
low for the TAFs. With a moist, southerly flow in place, MVFR
stratocu may develop toward daybreak or with sunrise. Have SCT
coverage developing, but cigs can't be ruled out. Mountain valley
fog and stratus likely again overnight, have included at KAVL as
well. Did not mention convection for Saturday, but this will need to
be added on the next TAF set. Light southeasterly wind this
afternoon becomes light and variable overnight. Light S to SW wind
expected on Saturday.
Outlook: Diurnal thunderstorm chances will steadily increase through
early next week. Early morning fog or low stratus will be possible,
primarily in the mountain valleys.
Confidence Table...
22-04Z 04-10Z 10-16Z 16-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 95% High 97%
KAVL High 100% Low 42% Med 60% High 97%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 97% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 90% High 94%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 90% High 91%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...RWHHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 342 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-036-048>053-056-058-059- 062>065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-240745- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander- Iredell-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba- Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee- Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- 342 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. The main potential threat will be cloud-to-ground lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ037-057-240745- Davie-Rowan- 342 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
503 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021
GAZ017-018-SCZ001-232130-
Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
503 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS...EAST CENTRAL HABERSHAM AND WEST CENTRAL
OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...
At 503 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles north of Toccoa, or near Tallulah Gorge
State Park, moving south at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Tallulah Falls, Tallulah Gorge State Park and Long Creek.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and half
inch hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3474 8339 3473 8338 3472 8335 3474 8335
3475 8333 3477 8332 3477 8326 3460 8320
3460 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 003DEG 11KT 3470 8332
CACSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
520 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021
SCZ002-232145-
Pickens Mountains SC-
520 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...
At 520 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles northwest of Pickens, or near Jocassee
Gorges, moving southeast at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Jocassee Gorges, Keowee Toxaway State Park, Lake Keowee, Sunset and
Nine Times.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and half
inch hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3501 8291 3501 8279 3489 8274 3487 8277
3487 8290 3490 8291 3490 8290 3491 8290
3492 8291 3494 8290 3494 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 334DEG 9KT 3497 8284
CACSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 527 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 SCZ005-010-232200- Greater Pickens SC-Anderson SC- 527 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL ANDERSON AND EAST CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT... At 527 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with intense lightning near Easley, moving southeast at 10 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Easley and Liberty. In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors. Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary appliances before the storm approaches. && LAT...LON 3483 8271 3486 8261 3471 8247 3465 8267 TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 334DEG 9KT 3480 8264 CAC
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
532 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021
NCZ052-232200-
Haywood NC-
532 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
HAYWOOD COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM EDT...
At 531 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning over Waynesville, moving south at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Waynesville, Lake Junaluska, Maggie Valley, B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap
To Black Balsam Area and Sunburst.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3541 8289 3541 8304 3543 8307 3554 8304
3554 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 359DEG 9KT 3549 8299
CACSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 550 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 SCZ002-005-232215- Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC- 550 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT... At 550 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with intense lightning near Pickens, moving southeast at 10 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Easley, Pickens, Liberty, Norris, Keowee Toxaway State Park, Jocassee Gorges, Six Mile, Central, Lake Keowee and Sunset. In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in these areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles. Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm arrives. Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary appliances before the storm approaches. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3497 8292 3503 8280 3484 8249 3470 8275 TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 327DEG 10KT 3487 8272 CAC
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 609 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 SCZ004-005-010-232245- Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC- 609 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS AND EAST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT... At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with intense lightning near Clemson, moving southeast at 5 mph. Locations to be impacted include... Clemson, Central, Pendleton, Norris, Six Mile, Lake Hartwell and Sandy Springs. In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors. Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary appliances before the storm approaches. && LAT...LON 3473 8292 3483 8280 3469 8258 3453 8283 TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 318DEG 6KT 3470 8281 CAC
The Greer radar (KGSP), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:33 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Public reported (via social media) a tree blown down on two vehicles on Lindsay Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 975630.