A moist and moderately unstable airmass along with a weak surface front combined to produce isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over portions of north and central Georgia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FFC wrote it up.
A moist and moderately unstable airmass along with a weak surface front combined to produce isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over portions of north and central Georgia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 11:02 AM EST, 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1202 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 .UPDATE... Short-term forecast grids remain on track. Better coverage of afternoon convection expected across our central Georgia counties, but isolated convection remains possible across the north. Despite minimal adjustments to the grids, will re-issue products to remove morning references. Fog has dissipated, but hazy conditions will persist through the afternoon. 20 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 746 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021/ ..12Z Aviation Area Forecast Discussion... PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 457 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021/ SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/... A weak high pressure system extending from the surface to the mid- levels currently sits over the northern Gulf, roughly 250 miles south of LIX. Closer to home, a stationary boundary rests across North Georgia, though battered and bruised as mesoanalysis of the Theta-E and dewpoint gradients show the boundary is mostly washed out as of early Thursday morning. One of the sharpest differentiations between the two airmasses may actually be between precipitable water and vertically-integrated smoke originating from wildfires in the Northwest. PWATS in the southern airmass seem to range between 1.5-2+ inches with the northern airmass being inundated with smoke from the northwest mid/upper level flow regime bringing near-surface smoke concentrations to roughly 15-25 micrograms per cubic meter according to recent HRRR model runs (p.s., that's a lot!). Throughout the day, a pressure minima of the GA/SC coastline is expected to gain a bit of strength and organization which may organize the boundary and push it further south through the forecast area, but to what extent remains unclear. CAMs have shown the best chances for showers and thunderstorms to remain along and south of this potential frontal push with quite a bit of uncertainty of coverage between different high-res, convective models. This low-pressure system, expected to move over the warm Gulf Stream has also caught the eye of the NHC as a possible area of tropical development, but at this time chances remain low. By Saturday, high pressure will sneak down along the eastern side of the Appalachians, bringing some drier air with it that will push into southern and eastern Georgia, leaving a strip of higher moisture along the I-85 corridor where scattered rain/thunder chances will be focused. Mostly clear skies, high RH, and a possible boost of cloud condensation nuclei provided by low-level smoke particulates will also form patchy fog across the forecast area this morning as well as Saturday morning. Highs expected in the low 90s, outsides of mid- 80s in the higher terrain, with mostly low 70s for morning lows. Thiem LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... A persistent pattern will continue through the long term with a broad upper ridge over the central and southern states...and an upper trough over the northeast. This should bring some drier air to the area and PWAT values lowering generally below 2.00 inches. Even with a slightly drier pattern...latest model guidance still indicates diurnal convection. By the first of the week the upper trough deepens and pushes a frontal boundary into the southern Appalachians. The front stalls and washes out by the end of the period. Pops have mostly been kept in the chance category during the daytime hours and slight chance or less overnight through Thursday. Only very small chances of tropical low formation on stationary front off the GA/FL coasts this weekend. Even if that were to happen...storms would likely move north along the mid- Atlantic coast. 41 AVIATION... 12Z Update... A typical summertime forecast for GA this TAF period, with several wx thresholds on the margins. SHRA/TSRA increases from 20-30% for ATL/AHN to 40-50% for MCN/CSG during the afternoon. Winds will be light, mostly below 7kts, and waffle around 360. FU/BR/FG is limiting VSBYs through TAF area from 1-5 miles but very patchy across the area, but expecting improvement with late morning mixing to VFR. Overnight CIGs highly dependent on afternoon rains but no restrictions expected at the present time. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium on all elements. Thiem && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 71 90 71 / 30 30 30 10 Atlanta 92 72 90 71 / 20 20 30 10 Blairsville 87 66 85 66 / 30 20 40 20 Cartersville 94 71 91 71 / 20 10 30 10 Columbus 94 73 93 72 / 50 30 30 10 Gainesville 91 71 88 71 / 30 20 40 20 Macon 94 72 94 70 / 30 20 20 10 Rome 95 71 93 72 / 10 10 20 10 Peachtree City 92 71 90 71 / 30 20 30 10 Vidalia 94 72 92 70 / 30 20 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...20
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1126 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086- 089>098-102>113-241530- Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa- Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta- Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel- Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene- Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson- Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon- Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray- Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach- Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton- Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs- Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren- Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes- Wilkinson- 1126 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few storms could become strong and capable of producing very heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible across north and central Georgia Saturday through Thursday...mainly in the afternoon and evening. A few storms could become strong and capable of producing locally heavy rain heavy rain... gusty winds and frequent lightning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1259 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021
GAZ083-095-231730-
Houston GA-Twiggs GA-
1259 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...
At 1258 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Huber, or 10 miles
west of Jeffersonville...moving south at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
and heavy rain.
IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.
Some locations in the path of this storm include
Warner Robins, Centerville, Robins Air Force Base, Marion,
Tarversville, Bullard, Elberta, Fitzpatrick, Ripley and Huber.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.
LAT...LON 3258 8372 3268 8366 3266 8360 3267 8360
3268 8361 3270 8361 3270 8360 3274 8360
3274 8358 3278 8353 3276 8339 3251 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 014DEG 9KT 3271 8352
WIND...40MPHThe Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 18 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:00 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Twiggs County 911 center reported a tree blown down across Highway 129.
The Houston County 911 center reported a few trees blown down from southwest of Elko to the Houston Lake area.
The Fulton County Emergency Manager reported numerous trees blown down across the Grant Park/Zoo-Atlanta, Glenwood Park, Ormewood Park and East Atlanta Village areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 963799, 963804, 963808.