Thunderstorms developed and trained along a stalled front in a high moisture environment leading to a report of flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CAE wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed and trained along a stalled front in a high moisture environment leading to a report of flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Columbia, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 9:25 AM EST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1025 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A nearly stationary front, and copious atmospheric moisture, will continue to provide high chances of showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday. A transition to more typical summerlike weather, with a chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, expected mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A front is expected to move south to near the northern Midlands late today as upper trough shifts southeast. The air mass appears to be quite moist with precipitable water near 2 inches. Continued moisture flux into the area as 850mb trough sets up from the Carolina Mountains southwest to north Gulf coast. This results in a persistent southwest low level jet 14 to 20 knots through the day. Instability looks weaker than past few days but possibly still moderate especially in the east Midlands. Think severe threat low but heavy rain remains an elevated threat with deep warm layer. Guidance pops are high especially this afternoon and evening as the front approaches and instability increases. Focus for highest qpf appears to be in the east Midlands/Pee Dee where low level convergence may maximize. Timing of short waves difficult but stayed close to guidance on high pops into the early evening. Temperatures should be a little cooler than last few days with considerable clouds and showers. Convection should diminish late tonight with muggy conditions. Max temps low to mid 80s and mins near 70. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Guidance indicates upper disturbance will cut off into a closed upper low over the Lower Miss/Tenn Valley area, maintaining a SW upper flow for our forecast area (FA) with embedded disturbances moving through. This, plus a frontal boundary remaining in the vicinity along with copious atmospheric moisture, with precipitable water (PW) values 2+ inches, to provide high chances of showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavy rain possible. WPC indicating MRGL risk of excessive rainfall Tue. Wednesday, array of guidance in good agreement that the closed low will retrograde westward into TX, while the upper trough deepens over the NE and Mid Atlantic coast. Upper flow over our region will transition into more W/NW, with h5 streamline analysis indicating appearance of some convergence aloft. Band of greatest moisture appears will shift south towards the S FA and the coast while some drier air moves in across the north. NBM responds with some lowering of the POPS, ranging from chance north to likely south, which appears reasonable. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ensemble guidance all in good agreement that the closed low will remain nearly stationary over TX while gradually weakening, with east coast upper trough to dig a little deeper. This provides our region with a NW flow aloft, which allows for some drier air to enter the forecast area. Latest GFS and EC ensembles indicate PW values lowering to near climatological normals. NBM showing chance POPs, with max temps trending higher. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ceilings at AGS/OGB/DNL have improved to MVFR and will likely remain variable through early afternoon. IFR at CUB/CAE but should become MVFR by noon. A front to our north will slowly inch south but should remain north of the area today. Conditions will improve to VFR later in the afternoon but scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop shortly after and may cause brief restrictions. Ceilings will drop late tonight and stratiform rain and fog may reduce visibilities as well. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day within thunderstorms and early morning stratus/fog. Restrictions may be more widespread Tuesday as a cold front stalls in the area. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Columbia SC 352 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115- 116-135>137-200800- Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick- Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee- Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster- Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg- Southeastern Orangeburg- 352 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Locally heavy rain possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Locally heavy rain possible Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Columbia radar (KCAE), 40 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:43 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain overwhelmed a culvert along Duncan Creek causing part of Hwy 391 south of Bethlehem Rd to be closed off by law enforcement. Video sent on social media showed water along the road which was estimated to be around 2 ft deep. Time of flash flooding estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 961461.