A wave of low pressure tracked along a stalled front across portions of the southern Coastal Plain. The combination of day time heating and the aforementioned frontal forcing and moisture pooling along the front lead to the development of heavy rain and isolated flash flooding in Sampson County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A wave of low pressure tracked along a stalled front across portions of the southern Coastal Plain. The combination of day time heating and the aforementioned frontal forcing and moisture pooling along the front lead to the development of heavy rain and isolated flash flooding in Sampson County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 2:55 PM EST, 2 hours 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A boundary will keep cooler temperatures and a chance of rain in the forecast through Wednesday. Conditions should dry out for the end of the work week before the chances for rain increase again this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 PM Monday... The surface frontal boundary currently is positioned southwest to northeast over the southern Sandhills and Coastal Plain, with upper 60's to lower 70's dewpoints behind and lower to middle 70's dewpoints east of the boundary. This front, along with a frontal wave of low pressure currently near Fayetteville, will track east- southeast into the southern Coastal Plain this evening. The main frontogenetical forcing for ascent will be prior to 00Z, with mid- level forcing also weakening after this period. As a result, rain showers, with embedded thunder over the southeast, should continue to taper off after 00Z, with only lingering light rain showers over the Coastal Plain up to 06Z. Only patchy showers or drizzle over the northwest Piedmont for the rest of the night. Scattered to broken clouds have inched into the northern and northwest Piedmont, with temperatures rising into the mid and upper 70's. Some patchy breaks in the clouds are possible this evening over this region. Patchy fog is favored over the northern Piedmont with lingering low-level moisture from rainfall and light winds. Dewpoints in the low to middle 60's over VA will slowly ooze into the Piedmont overnight behind the front. Lowered overnight lows a few degrees, mainly in the north, to account for this slight drying trend. Forecast lows are in the middle 60's up north to around 70 to the south. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Monday... Today's surface boundary will slide towards the southern portion of the state, but not move far from where it is today. However, latest models have backed off on the amount of precipitation coverage that is expected tomorrow afternoon. Have removed most of the likely coverage, thinking that the majority of the rainfall will be to the south across South Carolina. Kept likely pops in the eastern Charlotte metro area, with nearly the rest of the forecast area under chance pops and only a slight chance of thunderstorms. High temperatures will be a little unusual in that with less sky cover along the VA-NC border, high temperatures should actually be a couple degrees warmer in northern counties than they will be in the south. An isolated upper 70 degree high cannot be ruled out, but otherwise all locations are expected to rise back into the lower 80s, still below normal. Lows will also be a couple degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 PM Monday... At the start of Wednesday, the cold front will roughly parallel the I-95 corridor and will continue to sag south during the day. Have continued a dry forecast near the VA/NC border, while keeping chance pops generally south of US-64. The front will continue to linger into Thursday, with slight chance pops south of Raleigh and chance pops contained to southern counties. Considering it is summer in North Carolina, that's about as minimal as the coverage will be through the week, with chance pops returning everywhere on Friday and continuing through the weekend into Monday. Pops are actually the highest next Monday when another front might help to serve as a forcing mechanism for precipitation. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny Wednesday through Friday, with a little more cloud cover Saturday through Monday. While high temperatures may be a couple degrees lower than normal on Wednesday, the rest of the period should have temperatures near climatology, around 90/70. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday... INT/GSO are likely to see a period of VFR conditions for a few hours this afternoon into early evening, but otherwise MVFR to IFR conditions will dominate through mid morning Tue, and some LIFR conditions are expected late tonight through daybreak, mainly 08z- 13z. A weak surface front sitting across NC will continue to push slowly toward the SSE through tonight, just ahead of an upper level disturbance also moving SSE through the region. While INT/GSO will see patchy light showers diminish, the rest of the area will see areas of rain continue this afternoon, slipping slowly to the SE into the evening, and FAY will have a risk of an isolated storm as well. While the N Piedmont may see partial clearing through this evening, the moist ground and light low level winds will foster fog and stratus development later tonight, supporting the anticipated IFR to LIFR conditions starting after 06z. This will lift and break up with heating Tue morning, with a trend to VFR areawide between 14z and 16z. FAY will see a lingering shower risk through the end of the TAF valid period, plus a better chance of IFR cigs late tonight into Tue morning. Looking beyond 18z Tue, drier air will continue to arrive from the N. Mainly VFR conditions will continue at INT/GSO/RDU/RWI with minimal rain chances through Sat. At FAY, rain chances will persist through Wed before ending, with a potential for MVFR conditions, except for brief IFR cigs 09z-12z Wed morning. VFR conditions are likely Thu through Sat, although there will be an isolated storm risk near FAY late Fri and again Sat. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Kren/GIH SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Hartfield
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 418 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-201200- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 418 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur throughout the day today. Periods of heavy rain could lead to flooding, especially in low lying or poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
512 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021
NCZ078-192200-
Wayne NC-
512 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM EDT...
At 511 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goldsboro, moving southeast at 15 mph.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Walnut Creek, Seven Springs, Brogden, Cliffs Of The Neuse
State Park, Elroy and Mar-Mac.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.
&&
LAT...LON 3518 7783 3516 7788 3515 7789 3516 7790
3517 7793 3516 7797 3518 7799 3518 7800
3519 7800 3519 7804 3531 7810 3538 7795
3526 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 329DEG 14KT 3530 7799
GIHThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 76 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:38 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain and flash flooding wash out a portion of a road in Autryville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 977138.