Increasing winds and a small northerly swell resulted in life-threatening rip currents along the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Increasing winds and a small northerly swell resulted in life-threatening rip currents along the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 28, 11:53 AM AST, 3 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1153 AM AST Tue Dec 28 2021
.UPDATE...Scattered showers were observed across the north and
east sections of PR, but the accumulations were minimal. The
shower activity, however, has become lighter and more isolated as
the morning progressed. It is expected for the shower activity to
dissipate in the early afternoon hours. Therefore, some
adjustments were made to the morning and early afternoon forecast,
adding shower activity to the forecast. This afternoon, isolated
showers are forecast for portions of southwestern PR since we have
an ENE wind flow. The daytime high temps are expected to be in the
mid 80s across the lower elevations, while the higher elevations
would be in the mid 70s to low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. VCSH expected at TJSJ and TJBQ this morning, but improving
after 28/18Z. ENE winds at 10-15 KT expected through the day, with
sea breeze variations at TJPS. Winds decreasing after 29/00Z to
10KT or less.
&&
.MARINE...No changes from the previous discussion. Choppy seas
expected today and tonight, up to 5 feet. Winds at 10-20 knots,
with the stronger winds across the offshore Caribbean waters. Seas
to increase up to at least 6 feet on Wednesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM AST Tue Dec 28 2021/
SYNOPSIS...Fair weather will continue across the islands for most
of the week through the weekend. Winds will increase starting
tonight, and seas will become choppy to hazardous.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...
A low-to-mid level ridge over Florida will move over the
southwestern Atlantic, and it will remain as the main weather
feature through the short term period. This will continue to promote
stable conditions aloft and dry air across the local area. Northeast
trades are expected to prevail during the next several days, and as
the ridge tightens the pressure gradient on Wednesday, winds will
increase from 10-15 kt today to 15-20 kt through the second part of
the workweek. Embedded in this northeasterly steering wind flow, the
remnants of an old frontal boundary will move over the local
Atlantic waters on Wednesday. This should cause an increase in low-
level clouds and showers along the northern and central sections of
Puerto Rico. However, only minor rainfall amounts are forecast due
to the influence of the mid-level ridge. For today, fair weather
conditions will continue across the islands, with little to no
rainfall activity. On Thursday, trade wind showers should increase
during the overnight/early morning hours and minor rainfall amounts
could be observed over land areas across the USVI and east/northeast
sections of PR.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Model guidance now suggests a slightly wetter pattern for the latter
part of the long-term forecast period than previous model cycles.
However, mainly fair and stable weather conditions are still
expected to prevail across the region, especially for Friday through
the weekend. At mid-to-upper levels, ridging will maintain a
generally strong trade wind cap and unfavorable conditions for
shower development. Precipitable water values will remain close to
one inch or below maintaining moisture content well below normal for
this time of year through at least Sunday. Under these weather
conditions, shower activity, if any, will be very isolated with
minimal to trace rainfall accumulations. A patch of moisture, mainly
confined to the lower levels, will reach the forecast area by late
Monday. This slightly higher moisture content in combination with a
slight weakening of the trade wind cap and diurnal local effects may
promote somewhat higher chance for showers. Highest impact can be
expected for portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands during Monday night and Tuesday morning and later moving to
western Puerto Rico by the afternoon.
At the surface, a building high pressure will maintain moderate to
fresh winds at 15-20 mph for Friday through early next week. Then,
winds are forecast to diminish at 5-15 mph while gradually turning
from the east southeast as the high pressure moves away into north
central Atlantic, weakening the local pressure gradient. Under this
flow, expect warmer temperatures by Tuesday.
AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all
terminals during the next 24 hours. Low-level winds will continue
from the east-northeast at 8-15 kt.
MARINE...Light to moderate winds will prevail today across the
regional waters with seas 5 feet or less. Increasing winds and a
small northerly swell starting tonight should result in choppy to
hazardous seas. For the beaches today, the rip current risk is
high for the northern coast of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St.
Thomas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 84 74 / 30 30 30 30
STT 80 78 80 78 / 30 30 20 20
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for Culebra-
Mayaguez and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San
Juan and Vicinity.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.
AM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....ERG
PUBLIC DESK...CAMPerspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR 320 AM AST martes 28 de diciembre de 2021 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-290730- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra- Vieques-Las aguas costeras cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe- 320 AM AST martes 28 de diciembre de 2021 Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche. .Viento...Viento sostenido en exceso de 20 MPH (17 nudos) se espera a traves de las aguas del Mar Caribe. .Corrientes Marinas...Hay un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas para todas las playas desde la costa noroeste a noreste de Puerto Rico, incluyendo Culebra. .Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes Es probable que el riesgo entre moderado a alto de corrientes marinas persista hasta la proxima semana. Se espera que una marejada del norte llegue para mediados de semana causando oleaje peligroso de hasta 7 pies y condiciones costeras peligrosas. Vientos sostenidos de hasta 20 nudos se esperan a traves de las aguas regionales durante la segunda parte de la semana laboral. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar cualquier informacion sobre corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-290730- San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes- Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 320 AM AST martes 28 de diciembre de 2021 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche. .Viento...Viento sostenido en exceso de 20 MPH (17 nudos) se espera a traves de las aguas del Mar Caribe. .Corrientes Marinas...Hay un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas para las playas del norte de St. Thomas. .Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes Es probable que el riesgo entre moderado a alto de corrientes marinas persista hasta la proxima semana. Se espera que una marejada del norte llegue para mediados de semana causando oleaje peligroso de hasta 7 pies y condiciones costeras peligrosas. Vientos sostenidos de hasta 20 nudos se esperan a traves de las aguas regionales durante la segunda parte de la semana laboral. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar cualquier informacion sobre corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A 62-yeard-old tourist drowned while practicing snorkeling in Flamenco Beach, Culebra on the 28th of December in the afternoon.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Culebra | 2021-12-28 | 62 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1000242.