A long-duration winter storm produced widespread snowfall across central Pennsylvania from January 31 to February 2, 2021. Although the snow began on January 31st, warning criteria was not met in any central Pennsylvania counties until February 1st or 2nd.
Every event with a place to put it; 29 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A long-duration winter storm produced widespread snowfall across central Pennsylvania from January 31 to February 2, 2021. Although the snow began on January 31st, warning criteria was not met in any central Pennsylvania counties until February 1st or 2nd. Widespread snowfall amounts of 10-15 inches were observed, with more than 20 inches of accumulation in portions of Schuylkill County. This was a Miller Type B storm, with the primarily low pushing up the Ohio Valley before a center-jump to the Mid-Atlantic coast was observed. Snow was the predominant precipitation type, although the Lower Susquehanna Valley had a several hour period of light wintry mix before the coastal low strengthened. The system then very slowly pulled east-northeastward along the southern New England coast and out to sea.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 30, 11:09 PM EST, 3 hours 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1109 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet start to the weekend before a winter storm brings snow and travel disruptions Sunday morning into Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected across south-central Pennsylvania with widespread accumulations of 6 inches or more expected, and a swath of one foot or more over eastern areas. Dry weather returns by Wednesday with seasonal temperatures trending warmer to above average by the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Mid to high clouds thickening from west to east late tonight, and wiill lower during the overnight hours. Storm system on track to deliver snow before dawn over the southwest quarter of central PA && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... *Winter Storm to impact Central PA Sunday-Tuesday* Modified snow amounts slightly upward this evening to account for overall model trends and snow probs for Lycoming Valley to the Pocono Plateau. NAM 18z was a low outlier with dry slot significantly impacting snow accums over Lower Susq, but did not bite. 00z runs coming in robustly with 12"+ still in play. Major wildcard remains location and orientation of 850 mb LLJ around secondary low by Monday afternoon and evening, which will determine location and extent of areas that see 12"+ from this storm. This is simply unknown at this time, and we continue to message the uncertainty. Through collaboration with BGM, we are riding the WS Watch from the WC to the NC Mountains where a long duration Advisory is most likely to be issued later tonight, but subject to remainder of 00z model cycle which is now incoming. *Previous Discussion* A long duration snow event unfolding for central PA. Winter Storm Warnings in effect for much of the southern 2/3 of central PA, with a WS Watch area on the northern edge, where a combination of event duration and lack of intensity favor eventual Advisory issuances at this point. Far northwest areas not likely to see as much snow and may escape headlines altogether. There could be some potential across the southeast near the MD border early Monday, as dry slot arrives and snow tapers off at times, for a period of freezing drizzle, but on the whole, this is a snow event. Higher snowfall totals are based on storm lingering longer. Key to forecast is the potential for the upper level low to rotate more north, south, leading to a longer duration of deformation snow. Bust potential is significant over eastern/southeastern areas over the eventual timing/intensity and track of secondary low. 18z NAM is an indication of how critical the timing of this evolution is, limiting QPF and snow amounts to well less than 10 inches over the Lower Susq River Valley. This is considered to be a low outlier at this time, but the three distinct phases of this storm (1.) Initial WAA tonight-->Mon AM, 2.) Dry slot/Lull in precip intensity 3.) secondary deepening and more intense snowfall rates late Monday and Monday night. The third part is where bust potential and uncertainty remain the highest, so stay tuned. If all goes as planned, the low deepens offshore on Monday, and a robust cold conveyor belt (CCB) and anomalous easterly LLJ is likely to develop just north of the dry slot, which will be aligned with intensifying NE to SW deformation. Exactly where this occurs is still very much in question, and there has been a notable shift northward in the guidance. A band of snow should pivot over south- central PA and produce heavier amounts seemingly focused toward the lower Susquehanna Valley. However, shifts in the placement of the deformation band would impact area of max snow accum. Wind gusts 30-35mph are possible across the far southeast zones particularly early Monday as the low deepens offshore the Delmarva/NJ coast. Eastern Lancaster county would be the main area of concern. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Snow lightens and exits to the east as low pressure moves north into New England on Tuesday. In its wake, a chilly north wind will persist into Wednesday, with wind chills in the single digits and teens Wednesday through Thursday morning. Other than a few flurries on Wednesday, dry weather will persist through Thursday as a high pressure ridge builds in with temperatures trending warmer to above average into late week. By late week, considerable uncertainty remains with the amplitude and speed of an upper level trough moving in from the west. The ECENS is a bit more progressive and less amplified, which would result in precipitation arriving Thursday night into Friday. The GEFS is comparatively deeper and less progressive with the upper trough, which would favor milder temps Friday, a stronger frontal passage for the weekend, and colder temperatures early next week. Have gone with chance PoPs for Thursday night through Saturday morning in attempt to split the difference. Steadiest precip remains confined to NW half of CWA into the weekend. It should be warm enough ahead of the main cold front for precip to be mainly rain over the SE, a rain/snow mix central, and snow NW. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... With a mature cyclone approaching from the Ohio valley overnight, a band of snow on the northeastern periphery of the system will overspread southern PA just before sunrise. The arrival of snow will drop vsby to MVFR in JST first and then snow will continue to spread northward from there through the day. As snow becomes heavier in the late morning and afternoon, conditions will likely drop to IFR or lower. Winds will be from the E at 5-10 kts and strengthening into Sun night with some gusts to 20-30 mph across the eastern half of PA. Outlook... Mon...Widespread snow, +SN possible in eastern PA. Tue...Breezy with AM snow poss, mainly eastern PA. -SHSN poss NW. Wed-Thu...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 5 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ019-024>028-033>036-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. Winter Storm Watch from 3 AM EST Sunday through late Monday night for PAZ012-017-018-037-041. && SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Martin NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Martin SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Martin LONG TERM...RXR/Banghoff AVIATION...Colbert/Banghoff
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 945 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 PAZ019-042-045-046-049>053-058-010245- Southern Centre-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union- Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- 945 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ012-017-018-041-010245- Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Northern Lycoming- 945 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004>006-010-011-010245- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron- 945 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. 2 to 4 inches of snow is probable Sunday morning through Monday night and will likely result in slippery roads and travel disruptions. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ037-010245- Tioga- 945 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-010245- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 945 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
29 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A winter storm produced 8 to 12 inches of snow across Adams County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced around 8 inches of snow across Bedford County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 8 to 10 inches of snow across Blair County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 8 to 12 inches of snow across Columbia County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 10 to 16 inches of snow across Cumberland County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 10 to 15 inches of snow across Dauphin County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 16 to 20 inches of snow across Franklin County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 9 to 16 inches of snow across Fulton County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 9 to 13 inches of snow across Huntingdon County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced around 12 inches of snow across Juniata County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 9 to 16 inches of snow across Lancaster County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 10 to 16 inches of snow across Lebanon County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 10 to 13 inches of snow across Mifflin County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 11 to 14 inches of snow across Montour County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 9 to 18 inches of snow across Northumberland County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 11 to 18 inches of snow across Perry County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 14 to 21 inches of snow across Schuylkill County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 10 to 15 inches of snow across Snyder County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 8 to 17 inches of snow across Somerset County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 10 to 15 inches of snow across southern Centre County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 8 to 12 inches of snow across southern Clinton County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 11 to 15 inches of snow across southern Lycoming County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 11 to 14 inches of snow across Sullivan County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 14 to 16 inches of snow across Union County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 8 to 12 inches of snow across York County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 9 to 11 inches of snow across northern Centre County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 8 to 10 inches of snow across northern Clinton County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 9 to 11 inches of snow across northern Lycoming County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
A winter storm produced 12 to 14 inches of snow across Tioga County from January 31 to February 2, 2021.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 942483, 942488, 942489, 942491, 942492, 942494, 942495, 942496, 942497, 942498, 942499, 942500, 942501, 942502, 942506, 942507, 942508, 942509, 942510, 942511, 942512, 942513, 942514, 942516, 942517, 942503, 942504, 942505, 942515.