NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 10, 9:30 PM EST, 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 10, 9:30 PM EST, 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
930 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Several storm systems are forecast to move near and just south
of the area tonight through Saturday night. High pressure tries
to build toward the area Sunday into Monday, before another
storm system affects the area around next Tuesday. High pressure
will again build toward the area next Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The 0000 UTC run of the NAM has arrived with slightly lower
precipitation amounts for tonight and Thursday morning, so there
should be no need to make any changes to the Winter Weather
Advisory. It continues to appear as though snowfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches will be common in the advisory area with some
locally higher amounts. The precipitation should end from
northwest to southeast in our region between about 7:00 AM and
11:00 AM Thursday.
Otherwise, the gist of the forecast remains unchanged.
The leading edge of the precipitation should overspread our
region from west to east before midnight. Lift will continue to
be driven by the mid level perturbation as it moves east along
with right jet entrance dynamics associated with the upper level
jet as it moves east. In the low levels, warm air advection
pattern spreads east as well. This set up will result in factors
lining up best for ascent over SE PA into southern NJ into
Delmarva. At the surface, wavering front looks to stay just to
our south but a warm nose looks to intrude aloft near 850 mb
over southern Delmarva into extreme southern NJ. The upshot is
that most of the region will see snow. As a result, the Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect. We are forecasting a swath
of 3 to 5 inches total (overnight into Thursday)over SE PA into
southern New Jersey and northern Delmarva. It's even possible a
few locally higher amounts up to 6 inches could occur as there
will be some F-Gen forcing and this will need to be closely
monitored since these amounts are not far from Winter Storm
Warning Criteria.
The snow should be light to potentially at times moderate if
any heavier bands develop with the heaviest amounts most likely
falling during the 6-11z time frame. Meanwhile over Delmarva
(mainly near and south of Dover, DE) into extreme southern New
Jersey around Cape May and Atlantic County precipitation looks
to become a wintry mix following some initial snow. This will
likely include a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and
rain...though temps rising above freezing may be confined mainly
to the Delaware Beaches. In fact, given the set up with the
area remaining north of the surface front we continued to trend
heavily towards the colder temperature guidance. Lows tonight
will be mostly in the 20s except low 30s over southern Delmarva
and coastal NJ and teens over the southern Poconos.
For Thursday, the snow and mixed precipitation continues into
the first part of the morning before winding down fairly quickly
from west to east by the late morning time frame (around 10 am
to Noon). As mentioned we expect a max of 3 to 5 inches near
northern Delmarva, SE PA into central and southern NJ with 2 to
4 inches north towards I-78 and mostly 1 to 3 inch amounts in
remaining areas over the far north and south. But again, several
hundredths of an inch of ice accretion could occur over
interior portions of southern Delaware into into parts of the
eastern MD shore (mainly around Talbot and Caroline Counties.
Highs Thursday look to be mainly in the low to mid 30s except
20s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system will be peeling away from the region
offshore as another shortwave trough starts pushing towards the
Mid Atlantic Thursday evening. High pressure to our north
however will likely push back and suppress much of the event to
our south. Given the limited moisture I'm skeptical of how much
precip will actually fall, but there should be enough to at
least see some flurries/light snow through DelMarVa. As the
shortwave traverses our area, there will be some warmer air
aloft that begins to mix in as dry air is also entraining. The
challenge will be how much the warmer air vs drier air wins out.
For now, I think we'll see at least some mix pushing into
southern DelMarVa however accumulations would be light if
anything at all.
Given there is saturation below -10C and modest snow growth
potential, I expect snow to be the prevailing precip type. I
kept snow ratios generally on the 11-13:1 range leading to
around one half to one and a half inches for DelMarVa with
generally a dusting over northern Delaware and southern New
Jersey. Highs on Friday should be seasonably cold in the upper
20s to low 30s with lows each night dropping into the teens to
low 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The active weather pattern will continue this weekend into at
least early next week as a couple of more storm systems are
forecast to potentially bring winter weather to the Mid Atlantic
region around Saturday and Tuesday.
To begin the forecast period, an area of low pressure is
forecast to develop along a stalled out frontal boundary
offshore of the southeast coast, and strengthen as it moves
northeastward offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday into
Saturday night. As the low lifts to our east then northeast, a
surface trough is forecast to extend to the northwest toward the
Great Lakes region. This will likely allow cold air to get
trapped in place across the region. Low- mid level moisture and
lift are forecast to increase as this low moves near the area,
especially later Saturday as the surface trough moves across the
area. This will likely lead to a period of precipitation
affecting the region from later Saturday into Saturday night.
With the cold air in place, a wintry mix of snow, sleet,
freezing rain will be possible.
As we move into Sunday and Monday, a brief period of dry
weather is expected to return as high pressure builds across the
Great Lakes and into the northeast states, nosing it way into
the Mid Atlantic region. Seasonably cold and dry conditions are
expected Sunday into Monday.
As we move into Tuesday, however, another storm system is
forecast to affect the Mid Atlantic and northeast states. An
area of low pressure is forecast to lift into the Great Lakes
region Monday night, before a secondary low pressure system
develops across the southeast states and lifts across the Mid
Atlantic then to the northeast through the day Tuesday.
Depending on the track of this storm, there will likely be
enough cold air in place to lead to a wintry mix of snow, sleet,
and freezing rain for many areas Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Dry weather is forecast to return for Wednesday as high
pressure builds toward the area from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Overnight...VFR until around 04Z, then conditions deteriorating
quickly to IFR/LIFR with the arrival of snow from the west.
Snow accumulations of generally 2 to 4 inches are expected by
12Z. East to northeast wind 6 knots or less. High confidence in
the overall trend, with medium confidence in the exact timing.
Thursday...IFR/LIFR in the morning, with snow ending from
northwest to southeast. Conditions improving to MVFR, then to
VFR in the afternoon. Northeast to north wind around 10 knots.
Medium confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday night-Friday night... Generally VFR with northerly
winds becoming slightly more north-northeasterly and less than
10 kts. Possible light snow for ILG/MIV/ACY but no accumulation
expected.
Saturday-Saturday night...VFR conditions expected to begin the
day, however, conditions are expected to lower to MVFR and IFR
through the day and into Saturday night with a winter mix
possible. Northeast wind 5-10 knots, shifting to north late
Saturday night. Moderate confidence in overall pattern, low
confidence in precipitation types.
Sunday-Sunday night...MVFR and IFR conditions possible early,
with improvement to VFR possible by afternoon. Northeast winds
5-10 knots for the first half of the day shift to north the
northwest later in the day. Moderate confidence. Northwest winds
5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.
Monday...Mostly VFR conditions expected. Northwest wind 5-10
knots. Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-advisory winds/seas are expected through tonight. Snow or a
rain/snow mix will spread across the waters after midnight,
with visibility restrictions likely.
NE winds increase to marginal SCA levels Thursday morning for
most zones except ANZ450 with snow and rain continuing into the
morning before winding down north to south around midday. Seas
generally around 3 to 4 over the ocean waters.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday night-Friday Night...SCA conditions are anticipated
due to north northeasterly winds gusting to 25 kts with seas
building to near 5 feet on a six second period.
Saturday-Sunday...Conditions likely start off below advisory
levels early on Saturday, but wind and seas may begin to
approach advisory levels later Saturday, and especially Saturday
night into Sunday.
Sunday night...Conditions may begin above advisory levels
Sunday night, before lowering below advisory levels overnight.
Monday...Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ060-
061-103-105.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Thursday for PAZ070-071-
101-102-104-106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for NJZ009-
010.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Thursday for NJZ012>027.
DE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Thursday for DEZ001>004.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Thursday for MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
ANZ451>455.
&&
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Fitzsimmons/Iovino
Short Term...Deal
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Deal/Fitzsimmons/Iovino/Robertson
Marine...Deal/Fitzsimmons/Robertson