The atmosphere continued to cool on the 10th, especially in the lowest 2,000 to 3,000 feet. Above the subfreezing layer, warmth and moisture increased as another storm system tracked along the Gulf Coast after dark and early on the 11th.
Every event with a place to put it; 19 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
The atmosphere continued to cool on the 10th, especially in the lowest 2,000 to 3,000 feet. Above the subfreezing layer, warmth and moisture increased as another storm system tracked along the Gulf Coast after dark and early on the 11th.
At least a half inch of sleet piled up southeast of Conway (Faulkner County), at Des Arc (Prairie County), the Little Rock Air Force Base (Pulaski County), Sherwood (Pulaski County), and near Vilonia (Faulkner County). Accruals of ice (due to freezing rain) were at least a quarter inch at Pine Bluff (Jefferson County). There was an inch of snow southeast of Smithville (Lawrence County).
Roads became hazardous from about Little Rock (Pulaski County) eastward. A semi truck jackknifed along Interstate 30 near Otter Creek (Pulaski County) during the morning of the 11th, and partially blocked the highway. There were some power outages, but nothing outrageous (less than 10,000 households).
This situation could have been much worse, with a lot more freezing rain and buildup of ice. The presence of sleet and some snow kept freezing rain to a minimum, and spared trees and power lines of added weight (and damage).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 10, 5:03 AM CST, 6 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 503 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 .DISCUSSION... Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below... && .AVIATION... Areas of DZ, FZFG, and -FZRA continue this morning for all but HOT...LLQ and ADF. While some warming will be seen in central AR to see a transition to all liquid for LIT by this afternoon...NRN terminals will keep the potential for freezing precip. Tonight...more widespread wintry precip will be seen...primarily in the form of FZRA...with some significant ice accumulations possible. MVFR to LIFR conditions will be possible off an on through 12Z Thu. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 340 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021) SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Persistent NERLY SFC flow continues to usher in colder air to the CWA down the MS Delta region of the state...which is resulting in temps well below most guidance. As a result...temps have dropped to near or just below freezing for a good portion of the NE half of the CWA. These areas are seeing some patchy DZ and dense FG...and with temps at or below freezing...FZDZ and FZFG has been noted. This will result in some minor ice accumulation on elevated SFCs...especially on the NRN site of objects which are into the wind. This will create some slick spots on areas roadways...especially on bridges and overpasses. Given how much colder temps are for most areas compared to most guidance currently...will keep the colder trend going through much of the short term period. Looking at more details regarding model certainty...current conditions are among the lowest values of any guidance...which has increased confidence in staying on the lower side of guidance through the period. This will weigh most heavily through the next 24 hrs or so...with a trend closer to median guidance temps by the latter portion of the short term. What does this mean regarding the overall forecast and ice potential? Well...it means there will be a south trend in the areas that see FZRA...and the potential for Ice Storm criteria accumulations due to the colder temps. Latest data indicates a narrow band of more significant QPF...generally from say SWRN AR...to just south of LIT...into the MEM area. Areas NW of this axis will see lesser amounts of ice...even though most of this area will be in the coldest airmass. The exception will be SWRN portion of the CWA where there will be a pocket of above freezing temps. South of the heavier QPF axis we will be dealing with a shorter time-frame where temps will be sub-freezing. However...given the trends in guidance...there looks to be a small window Thu morning where some ice accumulations will be possible. The highest ice accumulations will fall somewhere at the intersection of the heavier QPF axis and the coldest temps...which will be some where along...both north and south of the I-40 corridor east of LIT. Ice accumulations of one-quarter to one-half inch will be possible in this general zone...with locally higher amounts possible over one- half inch. A more specific descriptions will be areas within and east of a line from De Witt...to Star City...to Benton...to Maumelle...to Heber Springs...up towards Walnut Ridge. This will be the general area that will see the Ice Storm Warning. Outside of this region...will have a Winter Wx Adv for less than one-quarter inch FZRA. The timing for most of the ice accumulation will be after 06Z Thu...through about 18Z Thu. Some light icing will still be possible before/after this time-frame...which could still result in some slight travel impacts. Will go ahead and start the Ice Storm Warning this morning...even though the heaviest FZRA will hold off until tonight. The primary reason is due to the light icing already ongoing across much of the area due to FZDZ and FZFG. This will create some travel hazards during the morning commute...and issuing and Adv this morning and the warning tonight will just make messaging more confusing/complicated. The precip will exit the region by Thu night into early Fri...with drier conditions expected. Persistent NRLY flow and cold temps will result in wind chill values in the single digits and teens Fri morning. A new disturbance will lift NE over SERN portions of the state Fri afternoon...with some additional precip possible. This may also include a wintry mix for the SERN counties. Impacts should be minimal with this activity. LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Tuesday For you folks that have been looking for winter all winter, you came to the right place. There will be a persistent feed of Arctic air into the region through much of the long term, with well below average temperatures expected. When this happens, we keep an eye on the southern stream to find out if there are any storm systems coming at us from the southwest. Lo and behold, we have something significant to monitor. While there is a minor ripple on Saturday, and maybe some flurries in western/central Arkansas, a much larger system will be here by Monday. Plenty of lift/moisture are in play, with good chances of snow in the forecast. We are still several days away, so there will undoubtedly be adjustments to the scenario. Even so, this one has a lot of potential. Any snow we get will exit by Tuesday. Outside of the snow, the coldest air during this period will be on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday mornings. Projected low temperatures are in the single digits and teens. Highs Sunday/Monday will mostly be in the teens/20s. For those keeping score, normal lows are in the upper 20s to upper 30s, and normal highs are in the upper 40s to upper 50s. We are significantly under these numbers. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Thursday FOR Arkansas-Cleburne- Faulkner-Grant-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Lawrence- Lonoke-Monroe-Prairie-Pulaski-Randolph-Saline-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday FOR Baxter-Boone- Conway-Fulton-Johnson-Marion-Newton-Pope-Searcy. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday FOR Clark-Cleveland-Dallas-Garland-Hot Spring-Lincoln- Logan-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Polk-Scott-Yell. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Thursday FOR Bradley-Calhoun-Desha-Drew-Ouachita. && Aviation...62
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 500 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard- Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan- Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery- Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring- Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita- Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 500 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Areas of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain will be noted over northern and central Arkansas today. There will also be some patchy freezing fog this morning. This will result in a thin layer of ice on exposed objects, including roadways. Icing will be the most problematic on bridges and overpasses. Subfreezing air in northern and central sections of the state will spread into the southern counties tonight. At the same time, precipitation coverage and intensity will increase. This will lead to significant ice accruals on trees and power lines, with some power outages likely. Roads will become treacherous, especially in the northern half of the state where temperatures drop well into the 20s. At this time, the most significant ice accruals are expected along and east of Walnut Ridge, Batesville, Conway, Sheridan, and Star City. In these areas, a quarter to half inch of ice could occur, with locally higher amounts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday Rain and freezing rain will remain likely Thursday morning before precipitation tapers off in the afternoon and evening. It will turn much colder this weekend and early next week. This will be the coldest air of the winter so far. Low temperatures Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings will be in the single digits and teens. Highs Sunday and Monday will mostly be in the teens and 20s. Those without proper heating should make preparations, and pets/animals who reside outside should be checked frequently or brought into shelter if possible. As temperatures go well below average, there could be some light snow or flurries on Saturday. The pattern favors a more significant event on Monday, with good chances of snow across much of the region. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk. 62/46
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
19 winter weather, 3 sleet, 2 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A COOP observer measured 0.10 of freezing rain at 36.11N, -91.11W.
The Harrison ASOS measured 0.22 of freezing rain.
The Mountain Home ASOS measured 0.05 of freezing rain.
Light snow of 0.4 inches of snow was measured by a coop observer at 36.24N, -93.12W.
A COOP observer measured 0.05 of freezing rain at 35.4N, -92.38W.
A CoCoRaHS observer estimated between one hundredth and one tenth of an inch of freezing rain/ice accumulated at 36.01N, -92.85W.
A COOP observer measured 0.4 of snow at 35.87N, -92.11W.
A CoCoRaHS observer estimated that between one hundredth and one tenth of an inch of freezing rain/ice accumulation fell at 36.14N, -92.12W.
A COOP observer measured 0.2 of sleet at 36.01N, -91.40W.
A CoCoRaHS observer measured 0.10 of freezing rain at 34.96N, -92.69W.
Broadcast Media reported a viewer measured 0.25 of freezing rain/ice accumulation at 34.21N, -92.02W.
A COOP Observer measured 0.5 of snow at 34.47N, -93.96W.
Freezing rain caused some tree limb damage in Lincoln County at 33.97N, -91.84W.
A CoCoRaHS observer measured 1.0 of snow at 36.03N, -91.28W.
The Monticello ASOS measured 0.36 of freezing rain at 33.62N, -91.79W.
A National Weather Service Employee measured 0.15 of freezing rain at 35.09N, -92.45W.
The Little Rock Airport ASOS measured 0.10 of freezing rain at 34.73N, -92.24W.
The Hot Springs ASOS measured 0.01 of freezing rain at 34.49N, -93.05W.
A CoCoRaHS observer measured 0.3 of sleet at 34.96N, -92.69W.
A CoCoRaHS observer measured 0.5 of sleet at 34.79N, -92.24W.
A CoCoRaHS observer measured 0.6 of sleet at 35.06N, -92.37W.
A measured report of 0.4 of sleet was obtained via social media at the location: 35.01N, -91.99W.
A COOP observer estimated 0.5 of sleet at 34.98N, -91.50W.
A COOP observer measured 0.2 of snow at 35.09N, -92.45W.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 946383, 946368, 946369, 946365, 946380, 946378, 946381, 946379, 946389, 946376, 946384, 946375, 946371, 946382, 946388, 946374, 946387, 946390, 946377, 946370, 946372, 946385, 946386, 946373.