NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 21, 7:00 PM EST, 4 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 21, 7:00 PM EST, 4 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
700 PM EST Tue Dec 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift northeast off the Eastern Seaboard tonight
into tomorrow. A cold front passes through Wednesday night. High
pressure briefly builds in on Thursday. A trio of weak low pressure
systems will cross near the region beginning Thursday night. High
pressure is expected to build back in on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Evening Update...
No major changes with the latest update. Did bump up PoPs even more
given continued short range model trends towards more widespread
light rain coverage tonight. Much of the area is into the likely
PoP category now, but again, it will only be of light intensity.
This also resulted in some expansion of higher freezing rain
probabilities up north. Some light icing is definitely possible
especially in the typically prone locations. However, with
antecedent warm ground and expected light and spotty precip
intensity, still do not think it is sufficient for an advisory
issuance. But we will monitor in the event a short- fused
advisory or SPS needs to be issued. Previous discussion
follows...
An active southern jet stream will drive an upper-level trough off
the Southeast U.S. coast late tonight or early Wednesday morning.
This will result in low pressure off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
coasts tonight into Wednesday, which will start to strengthen as it
shifts northeastward. This storm is expected to track well east of
our coasts, however some interaction will take place with a northern
stream sharp upper-level trough shifting eastward across
southeastern Canada and the Northeast. This will sweep a cold front
across our area during Wednesday. Before that frontal passage takes
place however, at least parts of our region will have some light
precipitation.
The guidance has been somewhat at odds with just how far westward
the precipitation shield associated with the offshore low gets. This
may extend into the immediate coastal areas for a time overnight and
early Wednesday morning, however much of the guidance is showing an
area of light precipitation developing that is basically centered on
the I-95 corridor later this evening and especially overnight. This
looks to be in response to a zone of convergence that sets up
between the offshore low and the Great Lakes system. This looks to
be more pronounced at about the 850 mb level where there is also
some frontogenesis.
The forecast soundings overall indicate that despite the chilly and
initially dry airmass, the thermal profiles support a period of
light rain overall. However, if some precipitation is able to
develop and also reach the ground from about the Lehigh Valley to
the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey, then some mixed
precipitation can occur. The model forecast soundings for parts of
these areas show more of a light freezing rain or freezing drizzle
scenario given a warm layer aloft and also a layer of dry air above
850 mb. This light icing scenario is of low confidence given some
question of just how much forcing for ascent will occur in that
area, plus the initially rather dry low to mid levels. Did add in
some mention of possible light freezing rain, however given the low
confidence and also the currently low PoPs, did not include any ice
amounts and will hold off on a Winter Weather Advisory or Special
Weather Statement. The PoPs however were increased quite a bit
westward. Temperatures could be tricky tonight as well, especially
across the northern areas as the high level clouds are initially
thinner before thickening and lowering takes place overnight.
Any precipitation should end quickly early Wednesday morning as the
offshore low continues to track farther away, plus the main trough
axis will be shifting across and then to our northeast during the
course of the day. Clearing is expected to occur in the wake of the
system through the morning, although some daytime heating induced
stratocumulus may develop. Some developing lake effect streamers may
send some clouds into the Poconos through Wednesday evening. We then
turn our attention to the winds.
As the sharp upper-level trough lifts across the Northeast and
northern Mid-Atlantic regions Wednesday, a period of strong cold air
advection is forecast to take place. This occurs while the pressure
gradient rapidly tightens. The model forecast soundings show plenty
of mixing with a deepening boundary layer and a low-level inverted-V
profile. There is about 30-40 knots of wind in the mixing layer, and
therefore it will become a breezy to windy day especially from about
midday to the very early evening hours when mixing is maximized.
Peak gusts look to be below Wind Advisory criteria, with gusts
overall topping out around 35 mph during the course of the day.
While the pressure gradient weakens some Wednesday night it still
remains in place as high pressure builds closer from the west and
southwest. The strongest cold air advection should be ending and the
overall mixing will weaken, thus allowing for at least some
decoupling to take place. As a result, the winds will diminish
during the course of Wednesday night and temperatures will be
dropping into the 20s areawide.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In the wake of the cold front, Thursday may be our only colder than
normal day of the week. Temperatures are expected to be slightly
below normal, with highs ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Thursday night, a very weak, progressive mid level short wave trough
crosses through the region. Unlike with yesterday's model runs,
there now appears to be a brief window for moisture advection
Thursday evening ahead of the best lift associated with this trough.
Thus, expanded the mention of slight chance of snow, generally along
and north of the I-80 corridor Thursday night. However, with limited
moisture and such a narrow window of opportunity, even if we do see
any snow, significant accumulations are very unlikely.
We should have a lull with tranquil weather on Friday and a slight
warming trend thanks to low level southwesterly flow. Temperatures
will be slightly above normal with highs ranging from the upper 30s
to lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Primary focus is on the low pressure tracking across southern Canada
and into the upper Great Lakes Friday night. This should bring a
quick shot of precipitation to our region Friday night into
Christmas morning. For the majority of the region, precipitation
will be primarily rain. However, below freezing temperatures are
possible along and north of the I-78 corridor. Thus a period of snow
is possible during the overnight hours in these areas. It is a bit
too far out to tell, but there is also the risk of a cold air damming
(CAD) set up, meaning that the precip may not be a simple rain/snow
transition, but rather an area of wintry mix will be possible
(again, this would primarily be along and north of the 78 corridor).
Outside of any CAD potential, any precip lingering on Saturday
morning should quickly change to rain as a significant warm up is
likely.
A big change with today's model runs is that the main surface low is
now being depicted as hanging back until a third mid level short
wave trough starts to progress across the northern plains during the
later half of the weekend. Consequently, we could see another period
of precipitation late Sunday.
Models are depicting another low pressure system possibly
approaching the region early next week, but given the uncertainty
with the weekend period, stayed close to a blend of the guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR late at MIV and ACY,
however this should also occur at ILG, PHL/PNE to TTN. A period of
light rain is expected overnight especially at ACY and MIV. Light
and variable winds, becoming northwest around 5 knots late. Low
confidence on timing and extent of the sub-VFR (mostly ceilings)
conditions.
Wednesday...Any MVFR ceilings improve quickly to VFR with clouds
decreasing through the day. Northwest winds 5-10 knots increasing to
15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday through Friday...Mostly VFR conditions are expected. Winds
generally light and variable. Moderate confidence.
Friday night and Saturday...MVFR or even IFR conditions possible
mostly for low ceilings, but visibility restrictions possible too
with precipitation. Precipitation is expected to be mostly rain,
though a wintry mix is possible during the overnight hours at KABE,
KRDG, and KTTN. Southerly or southwesterly winds around 5 kt. Low
confidence.
Sunday...Mostly VFR conditions expected. Northwesterly winds 5 to 10
kt. Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory for the central and northern New Jersey
Atlantic coastal waters Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A Gale Warning has been issued for the far southern New Jersey
Atlantic coastal waters southward and including Delaware Bay for
Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
As a storm system passes by our region well offshore later tonight
into Wednesday it will strengthen. Meanwhile, high pressure will
gradually build closer to our area by late Wednesday. A tight
pressure gradient combined with a period of strong cold air
advection will result in efficient and deeper mixing. The flow will
be from the northwest Wednesday and therefore some enhancement
should take place due to funneling effects down Delaware Bay. The
Gale Warning was issued given this expected setup and enhancement.
The strongest winds should be Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Outlook...
Thursday and Thursday night...winds and seas should drop below SCA
criteria Thursday morning. There could be another period with wind
gusts above 20kt Thursday evening, but expect conditions to stay
just below SCA criteria.
Friday through Sunday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria, though there are a few periods, where winds may gust above
20 kt.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ450>452.
Gale Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431-
453>455.
&&
Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Gorse/O'Brien
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Gorse/Johnson
Marine...Gorse/Johnson