An incoming front brought high winds to a number of locations in southwest and south central Oregon.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to a number of locations in southwest and south central Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 8, 2:56 PM PST, 3 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
256 PM PST Mon Nov 8 2021
.SHORT TERM...
The warm front is approaching this afternoon with a lot of virga
on radar. Wind and snow are the main weather impacts over the next
24 hours as this front moves through the region. With large
differences in pressure building across northern California and
southern Oregon. South winds are a concern for the late evening
hours and overnight hours.
South winds have already started to build in the Shasta valley
with the Weed airport reporting sustained winds to 30 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph. Sections of the coast have also reported gusts
to 40. These locations, in addition to others, will see wind
gusts build over the next 6 hours as the front approaches and
upper level winds increase. It's also worth noting that many
deterministic models are forecasting 700 mb winds up to 65 knots.
Many higher terrain locations east of the Cascades gust up to
these values at times when the atmosphere is well mixed. So look
for those strong winds to build into the Summer Lake area and the
higher terrain east of the Cascades this evening into tonight. For
more details on the wind hazards, our homepage
weather.gov/medford has a peak wind graphic forecast in addition
to the High Wind Warning text product.
As for the snow tonight, northern California and the Mt. Shasta
region will be the focus for winter impacts in addition to small
sections of the Cascades. First for the Mt. Shasta area, strong
southerly winds will flow up the Sacramento Valley and produce
terrain driven precipitation. As noted earlier, some of the flow
aloft is quite strong and up to 50 knots at times this evening
into tonight. We'll see some heavy precipitation over Mt. Shasta
City with snow levels right around 4000 to 3500 feet. Surface
temperatures are forecast to be around the mid 30's for most of
the night in Mt. Shasta City, so snow will likely struggle to
accumulate over the relatively lower elevations. However, Black
Butte Summit on I-5 should see some accumulation.
We're still going with 4 to 6 inches of snow over Black Butte
Summit. However, some of the snow probabilities are less
optimistic with about a 20% chance to exceed 4 inches according to
the national blend of models. The storm prediction center high
resolution ensemble forecast system is more optimistic with that
value at 100%. In any case, prepare for some snow along sections
of I-5 tonight, although the values are very much up in the air
based on some of the data already cited. Areas above 5500 feet,
like sections of highway 89 and Snowman's summit should be within
the heavy precipitation and see 6 to 8 inches of snow.
By later tonight, snow levels will rise, in some cases rapidly,
as a warm front moves in. This will occur by 7 am across all areas
as snow levels shoot up past 5500 feet. By then, most of the
precipitation will be lowering significantly across the region.
Lastly, the Cascades will see some snow, but it is known to
under produce under more southerly flow. The winds will change to
westerly once the front passes through. In general, we're
forecasting about 5 to 7 inches around Crater Lake with lower
totals below 5500 feet. If one is interested in snow storm totals,
check out the graphic on our main page weather.gov/medford.
After this system swings through the area Tuesday, relatively
moist flow continues over the forecast area with a 20% to 40%
chance of rain showers through the day. Any rainfall that does
accumulate will be light Tuesday. Eventually, another warm front
and the leading edge of the next atmospheric river will push into
Oregon. Based on the model data, our neighbors to the north in
Portland will see the brunt of this front, yet we still have a 80
to 60 percent chance of precipitation in southern Oregon and
northern California. It's worth noting snow levels are also
forecast to increase up to 9000 to 10000 feet behind the front.
-Smith
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Thursday morning, there will
be plenty of mid-level cloud cover and showers still ongoing along
the coast, north of the Umpqua Divide, and in the Cascades from
Crater Lake north. Should there be breaks in the mid-level cloud
cover, then fog formation will be likely. The areas where breaks in
cloud cover could allow for fog are in the Rogue, Applegate, and
Shasta Valley. However, it would still be a cold overcast morning
even if fog isn't able to form. Then Thursday evening, high pressure
begins to build into the region.
Friday and beyond, as a ridge amplifies, the storm track will be
shifted farther to the north and will result in a period of drier,
milder weather for places inland from the coast. Guidance still
shows a number of systems taking this northern track and this will
result in chances for the southern end of decaying fronts to impinge
on the coast. Some light PoPs and precip were kept along the coast,
coast range, and areas north of the Umpqua divide, but generally
places inland can expect to remain dry during the extended. The high
pressure ridge is expected to peak Saturday into Sunday and the
chance for rain will be lowest then. During this period of high
pressure, the ridging pattern could allow fog formation overnight
into each morning, but this will depend on how much cloud cover any
of the possible decaying fronts produce.
Beyond the Weekend, looking towards Monday, the trend is favoring a
breakdown of the ridge for at least a short period of time. The
variability in solutions during the breakdown of the ridge ranges
from a common front moving onshore with light to moderate winds and
rain, to a low end atmospheric river that could bring stonger winds
and more accumulations. One common feature even this far out is the
return of snow levels near pass level along the Cascades.
-Miles
&&
.AVIATION...08/18Z TAFs...From the Cascades wests...VFR conditions
will prevail today, except for patchy IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds
and fog over the west side valleys until late morning.
An incoming front will bring strong winds to the area tonight along
with precipitation and areas of MVFR cigs. Higher terrain will
become obscured. Higher elevations will see IFR conditions in snow,
especially over western and central Siskiyou county. The front will
move onshore late tonight and move through the rest of the area
early Tuesday. Winds and precipitation will diminish behind the
front, but areas of MVFR cigs will persist west of the Cascades.
East of the Cascades...VFR conditions will prevail into this
evening. An incoming front will bring strong winds to the area
tonight along with precipitation and patchy MVFR cigs. Higher
terrain will become obscured, and higher elevations will see areas
of IFR cigs/vsbys in snow. The front will move through the area
Tuesday. Winds and precipitation will diminish behind the front, and
VFR conditions will return to the area.
-Sven
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday 8 November 2021...A deep low
pressure center is approaching from the west. It will be off the
central Oregon coast early this evening. A strong front associated
with this low will bring southerly Storm Force winds to most of the
outer waters and to the coast near Cape Blanco, as well as Gales to
rest of the inner waters. Seas will be very steep and hazardous.
With a tide of around six feet overnight, combining with wind waves
from the south of over twenty feet possible, there will be a chance
of waves coming into the parking lot at Port Orford. The winds will
diminish tonight, but very steep and hazardous seas will persist
through Tuesday evening. Weaker fronts will follow Wednesday through
Friday, but conditions will be less severe with these systems.
-Sven
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ030-031.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ030-031.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ021-022.
High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ021-022.
High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ026.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ026.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ029.
CA...High Wind Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ085.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ085.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ084.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday above 3500 feet in
the for CAZ082.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday above 4500 feet in
the for CAZ080.
High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ081.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday above 3500 feet
in the for CAZ083.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday above 5000 feet in
the for CAZ083.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday
for PZZ350-356-370-376.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Squaw Peak RAWS recorded gusts exceeding 74 mph continuously during this interval. The peak gust was 89 mph recorded at 08/2039 PST.
The Calimus RAWS recorded gusts exceeding 57 mph nearly continuously during this interval. The peak gust was 64 mph recorded at 08/2200 PST.
A spotter in Silver Lake reported wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph Monday evening (11/8) into Tuesday morning (11/9). The Coffee Pot Flat RAWS recorded a gust to 58 mph at 08/2044 PST. The CWOP at Summer Lake recorded gusts exceeding 57 mph continuously from 09/0131 PST through 09/0400 PST. The peak gust was 76 mph recorded at 09/0215 PST, 09/0300 PST, and 09/0315 PST. The Summer Lake RAWS recorded gusts exceeding 57 mph nearly continuously from 08/2339 PST until 09/0438 PST. The peak gust was 67 mph recorded at 09/0238 PST. The ODOT sensor on Oregon Highway 31 at Paisley recorded gusts exceeding 57 mph continuously from 09/0256 PST until 09/0331 PST. The peak gust was 64 mph recorded at 09/0315 PST. The Summit RAWS recorded a gust to 62 mph at 09/0203 PST. The ODOT sensor on US 395 at Valley Falls recorded gusts exceeding 57 mph continuously from 09/0012 PST until 09/0241 PST. The peak gust was 73 mph recorded at 09/0151 PST. The Rock Creek RAWS recorded a gust to 59 mph at 09/0727 PST.
The Flynn Prairie RAWS recorded a gust to 59 mph at 08/2213 PST. The ODOT sensor on US 101 at Humbug Mountain recorded a gust to 59 mph at 09/0116 PST.
The NOS/NWLON sensor at Port Orford recorded a gust to 58 mph at 08/2248 PST and a gust to 59 mph at 08/2318 PST. A sensor at Floras Lake recorded a gust to 61 mph at 08/2344 PST.
A CWOP near Ashland recorded a gust to 63 mph at 09/0115 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 984993, 984992, 984991, 984996, 984995, 984994.