Yet another in a series of fronts brought high winds to one location on the Oregon south coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Yet another in a series of fronts brought high winds to one location on the Oregon south coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 22, 9:05 AM PST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
905 AM PST Wed Dec 22 2021
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers are moving into the region ahead
of the front that is expected to bring moderate to heavy snow,
generally above 4000 ft elevation starting this afternoon.
Currently valley temperatures are a little above freezing, but
above the inversion quite a bit warmer, and this morning's
sounding supports the current snow level forecast. -Sven
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PST Wednesday, 22 December, 2021...Steep
seas will continue in the near shore waters through this morning,
with very steep and hazardous seas across the outer waters north of
Port Orford. The next front will arrive this afternoon, producing
gusty south to southwest winds and widespread very steep seas
through tonight. Winds may reach gale force briefly as the front
passes. Another strong front is likely Thursday night into Friday,
marking a general shift to a much colder pattern under westerly
flow. Moderate west winds are expected from Friday onward, with seas
becoming swell driven and remaining elevated through the early part
of next week. -Wright/BPN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 AM PST Wed Dec 22 2021/
DISCUSSION...
A prolonged period of cold and wet weather is expected across SW
Oregon and Northern California over the next 10 days. Significant
winter travel impacts are expected, first at mid to higher
elevations today through Friday morning and then, likely, at low
to middle elevations from Friday/Christmas Eve through
approximately New Year's Day. If you will be traveling during this
time period, be sure to check the latest road conditions and
forecasts before you decide to hit the road. For everyone,
including those who live locally, now is a great time to prepare
for the upcoming wintry weather by packing a winter
travel/survival kit and preparing for colder, potentially snowy
weather. It is likely that elevations down to between 500 and 1500
feet will be impacted by snow at some point during the next 10
days.
This morning an impressively deep and high amplitude trough of
low pressure exists across the eastern Pacific Ocean with an
impressively large and high amplitude high pressure ridge west of
the trough over the central North Pacific extending well into the
Bering Sea to near the Arctic Circle. The trough, which was
mostly closed off from the main polar jet stream flow yesterday,
is now starting to merge back into the main flow. This is
resulting in increasing southwest flow over NorCal and SW Oregon
this morning that's likely to max out at about 150 knots at the
300mb level this evening into Thursday morning.
Scattered light showers this morning with snow levels mostly in
the 3kft to 4kft range are likely to increase across Northern
California and west of the Cascades today, especially along and
near the coast. Model guidance has trended wetter for this
afternoon through Thursday morning as the above mentioned jet
stream energy pumps subtropical moisture northeastward across the
area. This has resulted in the need to upgrade the Winter Weather
Advisory in effect for elevations above 4kft in the Mount Shasta
area to a Winter Storm Warning valid late this afternoon through
early Thursday morning. Numerical models suggest around 1.2 inches
of water is likely to fall in Mount Shasta City and the
surrounding area during a 12 hour time period this evening through
Thursday morning. This is, in part, due to a stronger, longer
duration, and more southerly flow at the 850mb level in that area.
Elsewhere, headlines have remained about the same for this frontal
system. Snow levels are likely to be in the 4-5kft range. The
Winter Weather Advisory for areas east of the Cascades has been
expanded some, mostly in Klamath County, due to more precipitation
expected there tonight into early Thursday.
Late Thursday morning through Friday morning a cold front will
move southward across the area with rain and snow showers as the
snow levels lower from ~4kft to ~2kft. Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect for some areas for this front. We'll need to be
on the lookout for the potential need to expand the advisories to
other areas west of the Cascades if current wetter trends noted in
the 06Z NAM12 continue and show up in the 12Z SPC HREF guidance.
Christmas Eve Day/Friday begins the time period of most concern
for travel impacts for areas west of the Cascades. A Winter Storm
Watch has been issued for much of the area west of the Cascades
for elevations above 1500 feet from midday Friday through Monday
morning. The cold upper level trough swings in from the Pacific
Friday bringing temperatures of -30 to -35C at 500mb. This cold
air, along with plenty of vorticity and instability, is likely to
bring convective precipitation across the west side. This can
result in snow levels dipping lower in moderate to heavy showers,
also leading to potential accumulations. In fact, some rumbles of
thunder are not outside of the realm of possibility for even
inland areas on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Snow levels near
2500 feet on Friday are likely to fall to around 1500 feet
Saturday/Christmas morning.
From Christmas Day through New Year's Day, approximately 5
shortwave troughs move through the area with 850mb temperatures
between -3C and -12C. A rough rule of thumb for snow here at
1370ft MSL at the Rogue Valley International Airport is 850mb
temperatures of about -6C. Said another way, National Blend of
Model probabilities indicate a 75% chance of 6 inches or more of
snowfall at the Medford Airport in a 72 hour period from the 26th
through the 28th with about a 60% probability of 8 inches or
more. While the amount of snowfall in this blend of models may be
a bit overdone and the amount of snowfall compared to that on the
ground at any given time is likely to be less than that, even
just an inch of snow on the ground at the airport can yield
significant travel impacts. For mountainous areas such as Sexton
and Canyon Mountain Pass on upward, snow's likely to be measured
in feet of low density snow during this same time period due to
the cold temperatures and precipitation we're expecting.
Again, if you'll be needing to travel at all in the next 10 days,
now is a good time to get yourself and your means of travel ready
for wintry travel if you have not already done so. Also take note
that this period of wintry weather is likely to bring with it and
behind the coldest temperatures we've recorded, thus far, this
fall-winter. ~BTL
AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs...MVFR/IFR conditions and local LIFR
ceilings and visibilities are expected at the coast and in the West
Side valleys through this morning. Conditions should improve by late
morning or early afternoon as winds increase ahead of a front that
is expected to move onshore tonight. Expect widespread precipitation
and MVFR ceilings, IFR visibilities in areas of snow, and terrain
obscuration to spread inland through today, with mountain wave
turbulence and low level wind shear possible, especially east of the
Cascades. Freezing levels should hover around 4000 ft above MSL.
-BPN
MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Wednesday, 22 December, 2021...Steep
seas will continue in the near shore waters through this morning,
with very steep and hazardous seas across the outer waters north of
Port Orford. The next front will arrive this afternoon, producing
gusty south to southwest winds and widespread very steep seas
through tonight. Winds may reach gale force briefly as the front
passes. Another strong front is likely Thursday night into Friday,
marking a general shift to a much colder pattern under westerly
flow. Moderate west winds are expected from Friday onward, with seas
becoming swell driven and remaining elevated through the early part
of next week. -BPN/CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
Friday above 4500 feet in the for ORZ025>031.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Monday morning
above 1500 feet in the for ORZ023>026.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
Friday for ORZ027-028.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
Friday above 4500 feet in the for CAZ085.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Monday morning
above 1500 feet in the for CAZ080.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Thursday for CAZ080.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday
above 4000 feet in the for CAZ082-083.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Thursday above 4000 feet in the for CAZ082-083.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Thursday for
CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 11 AM PST Saturday
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 AM PST Thursday for PZZ370-376.
SBN/SBN/SBNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The ODOT sensor on US Highway 101 at Humbug Mountain recorded several gusts exceeding 57 mph during this time interval. The peak gust was 65 mph at 22/1315 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 989999.