Blizzard in Alaska, December 22 to 23, 2021

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
245 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Calmer weather conditions have settled in across the Interior this
afternoon, as the remnants of the weekend winter storm have exited
east out of the state. Unsettled weather across the North Slope
will continue, with blizzard conditions along the eastern Beaufort
Sea Coast through tonight. The next winter storm will roll in
across the West Coast beginning this evening, with more heavy snow
in the Yukon Delta region and blizzard conditions for St.
Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast through tomorrow
evening. This system will push into the eastern Interior, with
Fairbanks receiving another 2-4 inches Wednesday night through
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level pattern consists of a closed low north of the
Arctic Coast and ridging extending across the Bering Sea. The
ridge out west will continue to build, resulting in the closed low
in the Arctic to slide to the east going into Wednesday. A deep
closed low will develop in the Western Bering Sea on Wednesday,
which will weaken the ridge, creating west to northwest flow
aloft by Wednesday night. Ridging will build once again across the
Bering Sea on Friday.

At the surface, a 977 mb low in the western Bering Sea will send a
front across St. Lawrence Island and the West Coast by tonight.
This front will bring blizzard conditions and heavy snow to this
region going into tomorrow. This front will push into the Western
Interior by tomorrow afternoon, before reaching the Fairbanks area
with accumulating snow by tomorrow night. This front will
eventually dissipate across the Interior by Thursday evening.

An Arctic surface low west of Banks Island will bring persistent
west to northwest flow across the Arctic Coast over the next
couple of days, resulting in snow and blowing snow issues,
especially across the eastern Beaufort Sea Coast, where blizzard
conditions are expected through tomorrow morning.

A second, weaker surface front will move across the Bering Sea
Thursday night, increasing chances for snow for portions of the
West Coast going into Friday morning. Beyond this point, active
weather looks to continue for the West Coast as another surface
low pressure deepens in the Bering Sea on Friday, with impacts to
the West Coast. Model agreement on placement is moderately
similar, with some timing differences at this point for impacts to
this area by Friday night.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Mostly clear skies across the Interior this afternoon is expected
to continue into tonight, resulting in cooling temperatures as the
strong winds have subsided. Increasing chances for snow will begin
tomorrow as a weather front moves in from the southwest, bringing
4 to 7 inches to the Central Interior and higher amounts up to 11
inches of snow along the Parks Highway through the Alaska Range,
resulting in the issuance of Winter Weather Advisories. 2 to 4
inches is expected for the Fairbanks area during this time period.
Once conditions improve from this frontal passage, cooler
temperatures expected to settle into the area by Christmas Eve.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Unsettled weather conditions continue along the North Slope, with
snow, blowing snow, and periods of blizzard conditions. Strong
west to northwest flow is expected to continue through tomorrow,
especially along the eastern Arctic Coast, where a Blizzard
Warning is in effect from tonight through tomorrow morning. Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect for all areas west of the eastern
Arctic Coast for snow and blowing snow issues ranging through this
evening to tomorrow morning. Temperatures trending down near
normal once conditions improve starting tomorrow.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Active weather returning to portions of the West Coast from the
Bering Strait south beginning tonight. A Blizzard Warning is in
effect for St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast with
snow amounts up to 10 inches and strong winds gusting to 60 mph
beginning tonight through tomorrow. Winter Storm Warnings are in
effect for the Lower Yukon Valley and Yukon Delta areas for snow
amounts up to 12 inches through tomorrow. Snow will spread across
the Western Interior by tomorrow afternoon, with a Winter Weather
Advisory in effect for the Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys
for snow amounts of 4 to 7 inches through tomorrow night. Another
weather front is expected to move across St. Lawrence Island, late
Thursday night, but impacts related to this weather system will
remain low. Temperatures expected to remain warm, especially in
the Yukon Delta region going into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Long range models continue to
indicate another couple of winter storms moving through the
forecast area this weekend. There is an increasing potential for
heavy snow along the West Coast on Saturday, with a second, more
intense storm moving across the West Coast and into the Interior
on Sunday. Confidence in further details remain low at this time,
but this may impact travel over the Christmas Holiday weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ214-AKZ215.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ216-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.

&&

DEC 21