Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, June 25 to 26, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
319 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Storms are expected to develop from KS southwest into the TX
panhandle, clipping far NW parts of the fa, late this
afternoon/early evening. Showers/storms will then continue to
develop, move into, and across parts of the area tonight into
Saturday morning, with the highest chances generally north of I-40.
The development will occur near a front and dryline/sfc trough. The
cool front or effective front is forecast to slowly move south into
and across parts of the area tonight into tomorrow. Another round of
showers/storms is then expected to begin Saturday afternoon. The
position(s) of the previously mentioned boundaries will have an
impact on where the greatest storm development will begin tomorrow
afternoon. Enough instability and shear is expected to be in place
that some of the storms later this afternoon and evening could
become strong to severe with hail and damaging winds possible. Some
strong to severe storms will also be possible Saturday afternoon
with hail and strong winds the main concerns, although this could be
impacted by what occurs tonight into Saturday morning. The severe
potential being said, heavy rain/flooding will become an increasing
concern as the weekend progresses and could be an even bigger
concern than the severe potential for at least parts of the fa. A
Flood Watch is in effect starting early this evening and continues
into Saturday.

With the rain and clouds expected across the area, the trend of
below average temperatures for late June will begin Saturday with
highs in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

All medium range models project the blocking high across the western
one third of the U.S. persisting through next week, which should
maintain the negatively tilted trough across the central one third
of the U.S.  This persisting upper air pattern will maintain our wet
trend with cooler than seasonably average every day through Friday.
As the surface based and elevated instability and deep layer shear
weakens Saturday evening across the Southern High Plains, expecting
the severe hazards to gradually decrease with any ongoing convection
moving across our area.  However, could still see some strong storms
during the overnight hours, but heavy rainfall could maintain a
flooding to flash flooding hazard as well as river flooding
potential.  Within an area of 2-plus inches of Preciptable Water
Saturday night and three day storm total accumulations of 4-5
inches, the highest potential right now for flooding would be across
central and southwestern Oklahoma.  Of course this area and storm
total amounts may change in the upcoming short term.  With the upper
trough axis to our west, mid-level vorticity forcing within our
southwesterly flow aloft will maintain chances for storms through
the day Sunday, with the highest POPs generally south and east of
the I-44 corridor. Weak elevated instability should keep any of the
high based storms below severe. However, the stalled out surface
boundary will remain stretched somewhere across our area with
moderate surface based instability that could produce some lower
based stronger convective storms near the boundary, although weak
capping and/or a lack of strong afternoon heating could inhibit
this. Another vort max coming up from our southwest will bring
another round of showers and weak thunderstorms.

As previously mentioned, our wet trend with periods of rain and
storms will continue through next week as our upper troughing and
ample gulf moisture transport persists, with the highest chances
across the southern half of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
However, limited instability and lower QPFs should keep any new
severe and flooding risks low. However, any ongoing flooding
especially with rivers may persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

A shower or two may impact WWR around 6-7Z otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected at all TAF sites through at least 21Z
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
northwest Oklahoma between 22-23Z and could bring MVFR conditions,
perhaps IFR conditions, to WWR. Thunderstorms may also bring at
least MVFR conditions to CSM and PNC mainly after 2-3Z Saturday.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

An Upper Air flight is not planned for today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  88  68  79 /  60  70  90  70
Hobart OK         72  88  67  80 /  60  80  90  60
Wichita Falls TX  76  93  71  83 /  10  40  70  60
Gage OK           67  84  64  81 /  90  50  50  20
Ponca City OK     70  82  67  80 /  90  90  80  50
Durant OK         75  92  72  87 /  10  10  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ004>030-033>038-044.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261645-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1145 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon in northwestern
Oklahoma and will gradually move east and south through the night. A
few storms are expected to produce damaging wind gusts and large
hail until 1 AM Saturday over the northwestern third of the state.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are likely from Saturday through Tuesday with the area
moving slowly from north to south. Some severe wind gusts could
occur Saturday. There is a chance for thunderstorms from Wednesday.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Three to five inches of rainfall is possible in
some areas by the beginning of next week. A flood watch is in effect
from Friday evening until Sunday evening.

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