Flooding and Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, July 1, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
951 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

Area of showers/storms still expected to gradually shift S/SW
today and tonight as the front slowly moves across the area. Made
some minor adjustments to PoPs/Wx grids to account for current
and projected trends. Heavy rain/flooding still main concern with
the activity today/tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

The period through sunrise Friday will be dominated by the arrival
of a slow-moving front from Kansas and the associated rainfall.
Short-term models and observations indicated that the front that
is roughly bisecting Kansas east-west early this morning will move
into northern Oklahoma around mid-day today. It will slowly move
south keeping a northwest-southeast orientation through the
afternoon. By early evening it is expected to pass through the OKC
area. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to form
along and behind the front which is also on the northern periphery
of the strong upper high over northern Texas. By sunrise Friday
the front may extend from south central Oklahoma toward the
northern Texas panhandle. These regions are in a slight risk for
flash flooding given the recent rains. Flood watches are in effect
for most of western, central, and northern Oklahoma and extending
a bit south of the Red River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

Widespread showers and storms are likely to be ongoing Friday
morning along and north of a cold front which will be continuing to
slowly move southward during the day Friday. The trend has been
towards a slightly slower frontal progression, with at least chance
PoPs now continuing through much of the day Friday for everywhere
outside of far northern Oklahoma. Chances for showers and storms
will also linger into Saturday for at least far southern Oklahoma
and western north Texas as the front weakens.

Winds will become southeasterly later Saturday into Sunday and
models suggest perhaps some upslope aided convection may fire on the
higher terrain to our west or even in the panhandles Sunday
afternoon. Steering flow is such that it will likely be hard for
this convection to make it very far eastward into our area, but
at least far western Oklahoma may see a chance for storms later in
the day Sunday or Sunday evening. The rest of the area is
expected to stay dry with moderate temperatures for this time of
year.

The early to middle part of next week will feature an upper ridge to
our west with a weakness in the height field lingering across Texas.
At this time it appears the better chances for daily showers and
storm chances will remain to our south and west, but slight chance
PoPs were retained for much of the area given some uncertainty this
far out. Temperatures will remain below average with highs in the
mid 80s each day.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

VFR conditions expected this evening and overnight across much of
the area. Exception will be northern Oklahoma, where some
lingering showers/storms may impact WWR/PNC/SWO at beginning of
forecast period. This will be the initial locations to see
additional precip develop Thursday morning as a front begins to
move south through the area. Storms will be prominent through
northern into central sections of Oklahoma tomorrow before higher
chances shifting south by the end of the forecast period. The
storms will be accompanied by MVFR and even a chance of IFR
conditions. South winds will veer to the southwest by mid-morning
and then to the north and northeast behind the front. Speeds
expected to remain below 12kts.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

No upper air flights are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  69  82  65 /  80  60  50  20
Hobart OK         89  68  82  66 /  60  80  70  30
Wichita Falls TX  92  71  84  69 /  50  60  70  40
Gage OK           84  67  82  65 /  70  70  40  20
Ponca City OK     82  69  83  62 /  80  30  20   0
Durant OK         91  72  87  70 /  70  70  70  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ006>008-011>030-
     034>038.

     Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday evening
     for OKZ033.

TX...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday evening
     for TXZ083>085.

&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
428 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-020930-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
428 AM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will increase today and tonight as a cold
front moves southward across the area. A few strong storms are
possible this afternoon and evening along the front.

.Heavy Rain...
Thunderstorms with heavy rain, especially in areas where the
ground is saturated, could lead to flooding in some locations
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Storm chances gradually shift southward into southern Oklahoma
and western north Texas by Friday into the weekend. At least a low
chance for thunderstorms will return early next week across
portions of the area.

.Heavy Rain...
Because of saturated ground across much of the area, a risk for
flooding will continue through Friday, especially across southwest
Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas.

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