Hail in Oklahoma, February 28, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1023 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front pushing through northeast OK this morning. Showers and
storms ahead of the boundary starting to increase in coverage some
across southeast OK and west central AR. A few storms late this
morning into the afternoon across SE OK/WC AR will carry
severe potential with hail the primary threat. Front to clear the
area by late afternoon, and will end the threat for severe weather.
Updated zones were mainly temperature adjustments to account for latest
frontal position. Also lowered high temps a little across parts of far
northeast Oklahoma. Sunshine in these areas later this afternoon cannot
be ruled out, and this would offset cold advection some.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  31  56  36 /  10   0   0  30
FSM   68  38  57  39 /  80  20  10  40
MLC   66  36  54  38 /  60  10  10  50
BVO   53  29  56  35 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   64  32  54  33 /  70  10   0  30
BYV   63  32  52  35 /  60  20   0  20
MKO   63  33  54  37 /  30   0   0  40
MIO   53  29  54  35 /  20   0   0  20
F10   58  34  54  38 /  30   0  10  50
HHW   66  41  53  39 /  80  30  40  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
458 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid Morning.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid morning.

POOR VISIBILITY.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern OKlahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this morning as a cold
front pushes through the area, mainly along and southeast of I-44.
By mid morning, a few storms may become strong to severe across
southeast Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas, with damaging
wind gusts and large hail the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall
amounts will also be possible with any training cells.
Thunderstorms will decrease as the front pushes south of the area
this afternoon.

Behind the front, north winds gusting 20 to 25 mph along with
drier air will lead to an increase in grassland fire spread
potential across northeast Oklahoma, where little rainfall is
expected through the morning.

A few areas of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas could
see visibility reduced to a mile or less this morning, but
widespread reductions to visibility are unlikely.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY through WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Additional ran chances arrive late Monday into Tuesday, and again
Thursday. Fire weather danger may be present during the week in
areas that miss out on significant rainfall, especially northwest
of I-44.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.