Widespread rain fell across the Ohio Valley during the morning hours as a warm front lifted north through the area. Two to three inches of rain fell across much of the region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Widespread rain fell across the Ohio Valley during the morning hours as a warm front lifted north through the area. Two to three inches of rain fell across much of the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 10:05 AM EST, 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1005 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will continue to lift north into the region this morning, followed by a cold front late this afternoon into this evening. Rain, heavy at times, will occur near and south of the Ohio River. Drier conditions will return Monday into Tuesday as high pressure builds in. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Main event is ongoing. Heavier rain has been tracking near and south of the Ohio River as expected. Appears that QPE is underdone where heavier amounts are occurring. As low level jet translates east and weakens a bit, precipitation will follow. Already seeing on radar that back edge is moving across Indiana. Expect this to track across the forecast area this afternoon, likely even clearing Lewis County. Once this does, temperatures will be able warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Surface cold to push east across the area this evening. A second enhancement of pcpn coverage to occur with the frontal forcing but it not expected to be as heavy as the morning activity. Rain to come to an end overnight as the front and deeper moisture shifts east. Expect clouds to hang on with lows from the lower 30s northwest to near 40 southeast. Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure beginning to nose into the area Monday. Expect to see decreasing clouds with temperatures close to normal. Monday's highs to range from the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Monday evening, mid-level troughing will be in place across much of the eastern CONUS, as a closed mid-level low moves east into northern New England. At the surface, northerly flow will exist across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with a surface high centered over the upper Mississippi Valley region. This high will then move over the Ohio Valley to begin the day on Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected through this period, though with temperatures that are likely the coolest of the entire extended forecast period. Min temps Monday night will be in the upper teens to mid 20s, and high temps Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 40s. Model agreement is finally improving for Tuesday night. Both the GFS and ECMWF have long been advertising a compact shortwave (or closed low) tracking eastward through the area, but with each model stuck on different latitudes -- the GFS well south of the ILN forecast area, and the ECMWF right through the Ohio Valley. Finally, the 00Z operational ECMWF tonight has shifted to the more southern solution, matching the 00Z operational GFS. Taking an ensemble approach, only very low probabilities of measurable precipitation are indicated in the southern sections of the ILN CWA. The forecast has thus been shifted to include 20 PoPs only for the southern part of the forecast area during this time frame, and another set of similar model runs may enable a dry forecast entirely. Generally broad eastern CONUS troughing is expected through the rest of the week, with northwest flow over the Ohio Valley, and little in the way of active weather. Any chances for precipitation appear likely to wait until next weekend, though model agreement at that range is quite poor as could normally be expected. Overall, slightly warmer temperatures (lower to mid 50s) appear likely on Wed-Thu, with a slight cooling trend after that to head into the weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities will continue for the next few hours until rain starts to move east. At that point, conditions will start to improve to MVFR area wide. Moisture and rain chances will then increase again after 00Z ahead of an approaching cold front. Precipitation chances will diminish this evening with the passage of the cold front. MVFR ceilings will persist overnight. A surface cold front will sweep east across the area early this evening. East to southeast winds around 10 kts today will shift to the northwest at 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts with the passage of the front this evening. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs will likely persist into Monday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ081-088. KY...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ089-090-094>100. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 414 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077-080-010915- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Hardin-Mercer- Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark- Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH- Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton- Highland- 414 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. KYZ089-090-094>100-OHZ081-088-010915- Carroll-Gallatin-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis- Adams-Scioto- 414 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky and South Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ075-080-KYZ091>093-OHZ078-079-082-010915- Ohio-Switzerland-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Clermont-Brown-Pike- 414 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A period of rain, which may be heavy at times, is expected today. There is some potential that this rain could lead to flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1015 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1002 AM FLOOD 2 ESE MAYSVILLE 38.63N 83.72W
02/28/2021 MASON KY COUNTY OFFICIAL
WATER OVER ORANGEBURG RD
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILN2101118
BCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
16 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High water was reported over several roads throughout the county.
Several roads were closed due to high water throughout the county.
Several cars were submerged in high water near State Route 104 by Country Club Drive.
High water was covering U.S. Route 23.
Several roads were covered with high water in South Bloomingville.
Harris Station Road was closed due to high water.
The northbound lanes of U.S. Route 23 were closed due to high water. One car was partially submerged.
High water was reported on several roads across the county.
A water rescue was needed for a vehicle stranded in high water along Grassy Fork Road.
Numerous roads were closed due to high water across the county, including portions of State Routes 124 and 220.
State Route 73 was closed in both directions due to flooding.
State Route 348 was closed at Left Fork Road due to flooding.
Stare Route 41 was closed due to flooding.
U.S. Route 52 East was closed beyond Ellison Lane due to flooding.
State Route 335 was closed due to flooding.
State Route 56 was closed due to high water between State Route 664 and Thomas Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 935859, 935860, 935861, 935862, 935863, 935864, 935865, 935866, 935867, 935868, 935869, 935870, 935871, 935872, 935873, 935874.