A tight pressure gradient developed behind a surface low that was located over southern Manitoba into the upper Midwest. The strongest winds over the area developed in southwest into far south central North Dakota.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A tight pressure gradient developed behind a surface low that was located over southern Manitoba into the upper Midwest. The strongest winds over the area developed in southwest into far south central North Dakota. The strongest wind gust of 67 mph occurred in Hettinger County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 11, 6:23 AM CST, 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 623 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 612 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 At 12Z, stratus coincident with subtle wind shift and increase in wind gusts was crossing the I-94 corridor and headed south. Clouds will envelope the rest of the forecast area through the morning. To the north, a few areas of snow have developed, including over Williston and Minot. Radar reflectivities displayed on the Williston radar are slightly further west than guidance had previously indicated. Not expecting any notable increase in snowfall accumulation than previously forecast, but a few tenths of an inch will be possible. No changes needed to the going forecast, with snow chances set to increse through the day in the central and east. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Main forecast concern in the short term period will be winds and snow. Falling and blowing snow will likely cause visibility issues central and east. A strong mid-level cyclone was deepening over the Northern Plains this morning, intensified by its placement in the left exit region of an upstream upper level jet streak. At the surface, a low was centered from the Upper Mississippi into southern Manitoba, while a tight pressure gradient was analyzed over the Dakotas. At 10Z a pressure rise/fall couplet was nearing the International Border from the north, and will swing south and east through the day. The combination of pressure rises intensifying an already tight gradient and cold air advection maintaining good momentum transfer of strong low to mid level flow will create strong, gusty winds at this surface today, transitioning east tonight. Strong agreement in guidance exists in the potential for high end winds today, especially southwest and far south central, as highlighted by the location of near max values on the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index. With forecast soundings depicting 50 kts at the top of the mixed layer today at various points of the aforementioned areas, agreement probabilistically and in deterministic guidance lined up well to upgrade the headline in these areas to a High Wind Warning. To the north, values drop off somewhat but still adequate for an Advisory (and isolated warning criteria gusts can't be ruled out). Tonight the pressure rise bubble will shift east and the strongest winds will transition into the James River Valley and the eastern side of the state, though the overall wind speed magnitude should be somewhat less as this occurs overnight. Snow will also impact the state today and tonight, generally north, central and east, as theta-e advection from a TROWAL wraps around the potent cyclone. Greater ascent will be focused to the east, and thus the best chance for snow accumulation will be from the Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley. For most areas the most impactful aspect of this system will be falling, blowing snow causing visibility reductions. This will continued to be addressed with the Winter Weather Advisory. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 On Friday, the upper low begins to kick east and high pressure builds under ridging from the west. The surface pressure gradient should linger through the day east, which will maintain windy north winds in the central and east. Light snow may also linger through a portion of the day as well. Then on Saturday a quick moving clipper runs through the region, which will bring light precipitation but also possibly a mix of several wintry precipitation types as it drags a warm front through with it (with high uncertainty towards details as these depend on uncertain ascent strength and surface temperatures). Following this clipper, ridging and warm air advection is expected with a mostly dry forecast and an early week period of above normal temperatures before the next trough and front arrives mid-week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 612 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Snow has developed over northern North Dakota and will continue to spread south through the day, mainly impacting north, central, and eastern terminals. With falling and blowing snow visibilities will likely be impacted, on top of the MVFR stratus spreading south as well. Areas of the north central into the James River Valley including KMOT-KJMS may see cigs drop to IFR later today or this evening. Northwest winds will increase during the day and become strong, gusts of 40 to near 50 kts possible. Winds diminish somewhat in the evening but remain strong, especially as strongest winds begin to translate east tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for NDZ001- 002-009-010-017>021-031>035. High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for NDZ040>046. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CST Friday for NDZ003>005-011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051. && UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...AE LONG TERM...AE AVIATION...AE
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 624 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 NDZ040>046-121230- Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons- 624 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 /524 AM MST Thu Nov 11 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central North Dakota and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A High Wind Warning is in effect today. See weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-121230- Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn- Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh- 624 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 /524 AM MST Thu Nov 11 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Wind Advisory is in effect today. See weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-121230- Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Kidder- Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 624 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Gusty northwest winds and periods of snow expected today into Friday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. See weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Gusty northwest winds and periods of snow expected today into Friday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. See weather.gov/bis for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. EDWARDS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CST THU NOV 11 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0622 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S DICKINSON 46.80N 102.80W
11/11/2021 M59 MPH STARK ND ASOS
ASOS STATION KDIK DICKINSON AIRPORT.
&&
AEThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Williams Lookout RAWS reported a wind gust of 67 mph.
Bowman AWOS reported a wind gust of 60 mph.
Hettinger ASOS reported a wind gust of 59 mph.
Tatonka Prairie RAWS reported a wind gust of 61 mph.
Dickinson ASOS reported a wind gust of 59 mph.
Slope County had estimated wind gusts of 60 mph.
Grant County had estimated wind gusts of 60 mph.
Emmons County had estimated wind gusts of 60 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 991752, 991753, 991754, 991755, 991756, 991757, 991758, 991759.