A deep low pressure system moved along the Canadian border as a strong cold front swept through North Dakota. This led to strong winds developing over western and central North Dakota including the James River Valley.
Every event with a place to put it; 32 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A deep low pressure system moved along the Canadian border as a strong cold front swept through North Dakota. This led to strong winds developing over western and central North Dakota including the James River Valley. Additionally, the mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface was occasionally aided by light rain and snow showers moving through, enhancing wind gusts. The strongest reported wind gust of 72 mph occurred in Divide County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 29, 8:42 AM CST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 942 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 935 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 At 14Z, surface low was placed over north-central North Dakota with the attendant front from near Beulah to Dickinson to Hettinger. Max winds this morning have been in the 45 to 55 mph range across portions of the far west. Gusty winds will continue to spread east with the passage of the front. A band of reflectivity on radar was stretched behind the front as well, driven by 700mb frontogenesis. Upstream observations are only reporting a few hundredths of an inch of liquid, which lines up with our current forecast. No major changes needed with this update. UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 The forecast for today remains on track. Cold front approaching the North Dakota/Montana border area, with winds switching out of the west and becoming gusty across eastern Montana. Tweaked hourly weather elements based on latest observations. Overall, changes were minimal with this product issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Forecast highlights in the short term period will be very strong winds today and tonight along with critical fire weather conditions this morning and afternoon. Currently, a mild overnight as we are in the warm sector of a strong mid latitude cyclone, currently deepening over southern Saskatchewan. Temperatures range from the mid/upper 30s with many locations still in the 40s. No changes to wind or fire weather headlines with this product issuance. Not much has changed for today regarding our strong wind event and critical fire weather day. A very compact/stacked low will develop and move east across southern Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba, driving a strong cold front through western and central ND this morning. The coupling of strong cold air advection, steep pressure rises, downsloping winds and steep lapse rates will yield sustained winds of 35-40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. In addition, models bring scattered showers to western and northern areas of the state, though not expecting much actual precipitation. Boundary layer will be on the dry side, so we will likely see some enhanced wind with any virga/light shower activity with downward momentum transfer of stronger winds aloft. BUFKIT suggest 55-60kts of wind available to mix down just above 700MB. For now kept wind gusts to 60 mph in the NPW product, with potentially greater wind gusts at times. The strong winds will further exacerbate the dangerous fire conditions. As the cold front approaches and mixing begins, humidity will quickly crash, but latest guidance does now suggest some recovery during the day. Regardless, afternoon values ranging from 30 percent northwest into the lower teens far south central are expected with the strong wind. Any fires that develop will quickly become problematic. Will keep the expiration of the Red Flag at 00Z, as humidity increases from west to east through the day as colder air surges into the region. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Cold and brisk for Tuesday, followed by dry weather and a warming trend through the rest of the period. Opted to add some low POPs on Tuesday with models showing an embedded S/WV moving through the region on the back side of the upper low. Looks to be another windy day, though not as bad as it will be today. Will need to consider additional wind headlines for Tuesday, and possibly fire weather as well depending on RH trends. Long wave ridge develops over the western CONUS mid-week, with a zonal flow pattern over the region for the end of the work week and upcoming weekend. This pattern will support continued dry weather and a very nice moderation in temperatures. Highs in the 70s are currently forecast for next weekend, with some NBM members showing highs in the 80s even. Any day with wind will raise fire weather concerns until we get some widespread and plentiful moisture. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 Mostly VFR conditions with strong westerly winds are expected through the 12Z TAF period. LLWS could be an issue early this morning from KDIK-KBIS before surface winds begin to increase as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Behind the front, expect sustained westerly winds of 30-40 kts this afternoon with gusts up to 55-60 kts possible. Lower ceilings and some scattered light precipitation will try to move in behind the front across the northwest, so introduced MVFR cigs at KXWA-KMOT as well as VCSH at KXWA. This cloud deck will try to spread southward early tonight with ceilings potentially nearing MVFR criteria from KDIK-KBIS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ003- 004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ004-005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051. High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ001- 002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044. High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051. && UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...Gale
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 935 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 NDZ004-005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-301445- Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie- Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Golden Valley- Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger- Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 935 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 /835 AM MDT Mon Mar 29 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening. A High Wind Warning is in effect through early Tuesday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Gusty northwest winds are expected on Tuesday, along with near critical fire weather conditions. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ001>003-301445- Divide-Burke-Renville- 935 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota and northwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A High Wind Warning is in effect through early Tuesday morning. See www.weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Gusty northwest winds are expected on Tuesday, along with near critical fire weather conditions. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. EDWARDS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
36 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Crosby RAWS reported wind gusts to 72 mph.
Williston ASOS reported wind gusts to 70 mph.
Stanley AWOS reported wind gusts to 60 mph.
Grassy Butte NDDOT site reported wind gusts to 69 mph.
Manning NDDOT site reported wind gusts to 62 mph.
Beach AWOS reported wind gusts to 66 mph.
Fryburg NDDOT site reported wind gusts to 66 mph.
Dickinson ASOS reported wind gusts to 68 mph.
Sand Creek RAWS reported wind gusts to 63 mph.
Bowman AWOS reported wind gusts to 63 mph.
Hettinger ASOS reported wind gusts to 70 mph.
Burke County had estimated gusts to 65 mph.
Hettinger County had estimated gusts to 65 mph.
Minot ASOS reported wind gusts to 67 mph.
J Clark Salyer RAWS reported wind gusts to 60 mph.
Hazen AWOS reported wind gusts to 58 mph.
Garrison ASOS reported wind gusts to 58 mph.
Denhoff NDDOT site reported wind gusts to 71 mph.
Mandan AWOS reported wind gusts to 65 mph.
Long Lake RAWS reported wind gusts to 70 mph.
Lake Tschida CWOP reported wind gusts to 59 mph.
Tatanka Prairie RAWS reported wind gusts to 66 mph.
Linton AWOS reported sustained winds to 44 mph.
Renville County had estimated gusts to 60 mph.
Bottineau County had estimated gusts to 60 mph.
Oliver County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Rolla AWOS reported wind gusts to 66 mph.
Rugby NDDOT site reported wind gusts to 68 mph.
Harvey AWOS reported wind gusts to 58 mph.
Carrington AWOS reported wind gusts to 64 mph.
Arrowwood RAWS reported wind gusts to 63 mph.
Wishek NDDOT site reported wind gusts to 65 mph.
Oakes AWOS reported sustained winds to 44 mph.
Kidder County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Logan County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
LaMoure County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 948598, 948599, 948600, 948601, 948602, 948603, 948605, 948606, 948607, 948608, 948609, 948628, 948636, 948610, 948612, 948613, 948614, 948615, 948616, 948617, 948618, 948619, 948627, 948629, 948630, 948631, 948620, 948621, 948622, 948623, 948624, 948625, 948626, 948632, 948633, 948634.