A deep low pressure system that moved from Saskatchewan towards Ontario pushed a cold front through the Northern Plains. This led to strong northwest winds developing over the region, with the strongest winds occurring over northwest into central North Dakota.
Every event with a place to put it; 11 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A deep low pressure system that moved from Saskatchewan towards Ontario pushed a cold front through the Northern Plains. This led to strong northwest winds developing over the region, with the strongest winds occurring over northwest into central North Dakota. The strongest wind gust reported was 63 mph at the Minot Airport in Ward County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 20, 8:11 AM CST, 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 811 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 758 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 No major changes made for this update. Winds are already gusting to around 50 mph as pressure rises are rapidly moving into western North Dakota this morning. UPDATE Issued at 612 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 12Z surface observations show cold front approaching northwest North Dakota with analyzed pressure rise bubble over far northeast Montana. Initial wind gusts reaching 45 mph should become more common as these pressure rises push into the area over the next couple hours. Current forecast looks good with this update. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Windy conditions expected today, especially in the north central portions of the state where a High Wind Warning has been issued. In the mid levels, a potent 100 kt jet streak was analyzed via GOES derived winds over northern Montana with warm conveyor belt cirrus extending across western Montana and North Dakota. The water vapor loop over the past several hours show the obvious vorticity max and trough driving southeast through southern Alberta. At the surface, a cyclone at 09Z was centered over northern Saskatchewan with a cold front analyzed through southern Saskatchewan into north central Montana and a warm front drawn south through central North Dakota. Wind concerns today will drive from two different mechanisms associated with the aforementioned trough. First, as the upper level jet streak and trough continue southeast this morning, the cold front and associated isallobaric effect will turn winds northwest and produce wind gusts up to 55 mph this morning in the west. Then further north/east, low level flow will strengthen this morning with 850mb winds increasing to near 60 kts over the north central portion of the state. Combined with an impressive pressure gradient with the deep surface low forecast to push into southern Ontario by this afternoon, sustained winds plus gusts should favor High Wind Warning criteria. The possible inhibiting factor for higher end gusts could be questionable boundary layer mixing over fresh snowfall, though even the historically tough to mix out NAM soundings show 50 kts available in the boundary layer today. Either way the sustained wind potential given the pressure gradient today is definitely strong enough on its own with MAV/MET/ECS guidance all producing 28-31 kts across north central sites. The surface pressure gradient does begin to weaken gradually by around 00Z, though active northwest flow aloft and cold air advection in the lower levels will be enough to keep winds at least breezy tonight. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Relatively cooler temperatures with a chance of snow this weekend highlight the long term forecast period. Northwest flow aloft remains the dominant pattern through the weekend with relatively cooler temperatures expected. A cold front is forecast to swing through Thursday, with light snow possible in the east. Moisture looks minimal with any notable accumulations unlikely. The next opportunity for accumulating snow still looks to be Saturday with models consistent in both a shortwave ejecting out of a deeper southwest CONUS trough and a northern stream cold front arriving at about the same time. QPF consistency is lacking however, especially with how to handle how the front could prohibit the northern progression of the southern wave. Blended forecast continues to keep best chances for snow to the southern and eastern portions of the state, though with ensembles showing non- zero chances through the north. The temperature forecast through the long term through the weekend is relatively consistent with highs in the teens and 20s and lows from 5 below to 10 above. However the persistent passage of subtle fronts in the mean northwest flow may provide variability day to day in temperatures that is difficult to pick out several days out. Notable differences in 850mb temperatures show up between global model solutions and this leads to a near 15 degree spread in high temperatures from the NBM probabilities Saturday into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 612 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Low pressure system will create strong winds today. A cold front associated with this low will cross the state from west to east through 18Z. Along and behind the front, northwest winds gusting 40 kts to near 50 kts are expected. LLWS this morning should even out with the increase of surface winds this morning, then return for a bit after 00Z as surface winds begin to decrease. Mostly VFR expected, though some isolated MVFR clouds may accompany the cold front this morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for NDZ001- 009-017>020-031>037-040>048-050-051. High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for NDZ002>005- 010>013-021>023-025. && UPDATE...AJ SHORT TERM...AE LONG TERM...AE AVIATION...AE
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 805 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 NDZ002>005-010>013-021>023-025-211415- Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce- McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster- 805 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A High Wind Warning is in effect today for northwest winds 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. See weather.gov/bis for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ001-009-017>020-031>037-040>048-050-051-211415- Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley- Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger- Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 805 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 /705 AM MST Wed Jan 20 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Wind Advisory is in effect today for northwest winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 55 mph. See weather.gov/bis for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
13 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Rolla AWOS reported a sustained wind of 40 mph.
Minot ASOS reported a wind gust of 63 mph.
Rugby AWOS reported a sustained wind of 46 mph.
Garrison ASOS reported a wind gust of 61 mph.
Denhoff NDDOT site reported a sustained wind of 47 mph.
Carrington AWOS reported a wind gust of 58 mph.
Jamestown ASOS reported a wind gust of 60 mph.
Burke County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Mountrail County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Renville County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Bottineau County had estimated sustained winds of 40 mph.
McHenry County had estimated sustained winds of 40 mph.
Wells County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 937612, 937613, 937614, 937615, 937623, 937624, 937639, 937640, 937641, 937642, 937643, 937644, 937645.