Gusty winds upwards of 60 mph were observed through the mid-morning through early afternoon hours on August 26.
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The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Gusty winds upwards of 60 mph were observed through the mid-morning through early afternoon hours on August 26.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 26, 8:56 AM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 956 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue to work to the east this morning, with gusty winds following the heavier showers south of I-94. A few surface gusts to near 40 mph have been observed in Sargent County this morning. UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Showers/thunder continues to propagate eastward as expected. Have made minor updates to the forecast database over the past few hours, but general story remains the same. The probability for severe storms is rapidly diminishing as lightning and radar trends the strongest activity to the south (along the thermal/MLCAPE gradient). WPC did just issue a mesoscale precipitation discussion for heavy rainfall potential. Although the backing of the low level jet into the complex is concerning and will lead to rainfall rates 1-2 inches per hour, current radar indicates these rates are rather isolated and transitory. Still thinking heaviest QPF around an inch or slightly more makes the most sense given the above radar analysis. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 The challenge this forecast period will be how to message within this lower predictability type weather pattern. Main concern will be shower/thunder chances. The SPC day 1 convective outlook brushes parts of southeast North Dakota with a marginal risk for severe storms, and this will be the other concern. General zonal flow aloft will become more southwest at some point on Friday as a strong upper wave propagates across Canada. Ensemble guidance in agreement with this overall synoptic pattern. This is good news, but as they say the devil is in the details and that is where the uncertainty starts to creep in. Much of the uncertainty with this pattern is timing the parade of weak upper level waves and/or jet streaks. One such example is the current (07z) elevated showers across northeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota, likely associated with an upper jet streak and weak elevated instability. For today, what we think is a higher predictable event (based on agreement of various CAMS and the NBM) is the complex becoming organized across southwest North Dakota. This complex is being initiated at the nose of a low level jet within a thermal/instability gradient. This thermal/instability gradient is expected to advect northward through the morning hours, which would track this complex eastward and into the forecast area this morning, exiting early afternoon. Regarding severe chances, more favorable south of the region, but this depends on how far northward the deeper instability can advect by the time the complex arrives. Thinking the chances for the favorable severe wind environment to advect far enough northward to make SE ND a severe concern is relatively low (10-30%). However, will monitor the mesoscale environment through the night and provide updates to this likelihood. NBM PQPF indicates around an 80% chance for > 0.25 inches QPF, and around a 40% chance for > 1 inch QPF across SE ND/WC MN, with rainfall amounts lowering to the north. Generally, expect some sort of rainfall along and south of highway 2, with higher amounts to the south by this evening. For tonight into Friday, showers remain possible. Forcing during this period will be much weaker and deeper instability will remain south of the region, which ensembles agree upon. There should be subsidence behind the complex that moves through the region today, so expect some sort of lull this evening into tonight. Otherwise, given that the upper flow will gradually transition to more southwest flow aloft, this sets the stage for lower level moisture to start advecting northward and any weak upper wave/jet streak would provide forcing for showers. Thus, the main message for this period will be rounds of showers (isold thunder) with impacts minimal. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Overview... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible early Saturday as a cold front moves into the area. Then, scattered strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday from the Red River Valley eastward. This will provide the main opportunity for impactful weather across the long term period. Otherwise, near to slightly above normal temperatures are anticipated with some potential for a return to more active weather by midweek next week. Saturday... An upper trough is progged to traverse the northern Plains on Saturday and bring with it the chance for showers and thunderstorms. An attendant surface cold front is expected to accompany this upper level feature and will be a primary foci for shower and thunderstorm development on Saturday. While ensemble guidance is keying in on the overall solution of a crashing cold front with strong upper level support, there are still significant question marks about the location and timing of this system. A more progressive track of the upper low would still bring showers and thunderstorms to the area early Saturday, but would limit the overall severe potential later in the day. In contrast, a less progressive track would see increasing severe potential during the Saturday afternoon/evening period. As a result, there is still a wide range of outcomes possible with this system. That being said, current consensus is confident in the solution of showers and thunderstorms moving across eastern North Dakota early Saturday with the progressing cold front. The biggest discrepancies then lie with the potential for afternoon/evening convection and where it will occur. Ahead of the front, modest return flow is anticipated and appreciable moisture return would lead to increased instability. In conjunction with good upper level support with the upper trough in the area, organized convection along the cold front would be likely. However, due to overall ensemble spread, confidence is still wavering on the location and timing for this event. Sunday through Wednesday... A transient period of ridging aloft is then expected moving into the latter half of the weekend and into early next week. Cluster analysis is in generally good agreement on this feature, although a few outliers do hint at a weaker ridge and more zonal flow aloft which would keep things just a touch cooler. Overall though, current consensus is indicating that this will help to usher in quieter weather and a gradual warming trend as well. By midweek, however, cluster analysis and general ensemble guidance alike are beginning to catch on to another upper trough digging in over the Pacific NW. This would effectively induce southwesterly flow aloft over the northern Plains and once again bring the opportunity for periodic shortwaves and increasing rain chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Showers will affect much of the region this morning, ending from west to east by early afternoon. Showers will be heavier and more intense at KFAR compared to northern sites. Lightning has been limited thus far. KFAR will likely have a bit of thunder/lightning. After these showers move through anticipate a lull in precipitation, with chances again increasing on Friday, along with at least MVFR cigs by Friday morning. Winds may be a bit gusty at times this afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. UPDATE...Lynch SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...Rick AVIATION...TG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 630 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-271200- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 630 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. The probability for severe storms is very low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible on Saturday ahead of a cold front. At this time it appears the best threat for severe storms will be across west central Minnesota. If the cold front is slower than currently expected, the severe threat area would expand northward and westward. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Peak wind of 58 mph was measured at an NDAWN station at the 10-meter height.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 982817.