Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, September 8, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1105 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to cross our area from the northwest later
today into early Thursday and bring more widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region. Drying high pressure will spread back
over the region in the front's wake and linger through the weekend
and into the first half of next week, while summertime conditions
make a return to the area as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 am: Morning convective cluster has moved east of the
forecast area as of late morning. Brief subsident regime and
relatively stable air mass in its wake should result in a lull in
convection for at least the next couple of hours. Nevertheless,
skies are clearing rather quickly in the wake of the convection, and
isolated-to-widely scattered convection should redevelop over the
forecast area by mid-afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes to the
tune of 2000-3000 J/kg. Through the daytime hours, the primary
impetus for convective initiation will be terrain effects/
differential heating, as it's looking increasingly likely that the
frontal zone to our west will not begin to move into the forecast
area until this evening. Nevertheless, as the flow aloft becomes
increasingly cyclonic and moderate-to-strong instability develops,
PoPs in the 40-60% range appear prudent in most locations.

Deep-lyr shear still looks minimal wrt its potential to organized
storms, however, 0-3 km shear in the 15-25 kt range will probably be
enough to support clustering of cells along cold pools. Strong
downbursts will be possible with any clusters, as well as with
single cell pulse storms. The degree of instability and relatively
low freezing levels will also support marginally severe hail with
the strongest updrafts.

With the front expected to cross the forecast area overnight, some
degree of convective coverage will persist, probably through the end
of the period, and this supports continuation of at least slight
chance PoPs in most areas through 12Z Thursday. Temps are expected
to be a few degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EDT Wednesday: The frontal zone is expected to be
in the far eastern CFWA during the beginning portions of the
short-term. Leftover moisture along the boundary may warrant an
early morning shower or thunderstorm along and east of the I-77
corridor, but dry air advection behind the fropa will lead to
much drier conditions during the day Thursday as high pressure
slowly builds in from the west. The upper trough over the Great
Lakes and OH Valley will help push the frontal boundary eastward
as the axis of the upper trough slips past the CFWA Thursday
evening. The sfc pressure gradient tightens up slightly Thursday
into Thursday night and could lead to low-end breezy conditions,
especially in the High Country, but any wind gusts should subside
by Friday morning as the center of the sfc high sets up shop
over the central Appalachians. Mostly sunny and dry conditions will
prevail through Friday as a result. Anomalously lower thicknesses
will keep temperatures in check with near-normal values expected
through the forecast period for highs and a category below normal
for lows as good radiational cooling processes will be in store for
both Thursday and Friday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday: Sfc high will hold steady over the
Mid-Atlantic Saturday, while sliding offshore by Sunday. This
will allow for a return flow to enter back into the CFWA, along
with rising heights from a deepening upper ridge over the central
CONUS. A warming and more humid trend will prevail in this set up
through the period, but the additional subsidence aloft will help
cap any shower and thunderstorm development through the early part
of next week. The next frontal boundary is shown encroaching the
area by the middle part of next week, according to the GFS. Model
guidance keep this away from the CFWA through the day seven, so
most of the extended will remain dry. There are some differences in
the global models. The GFS sags the frontal boundary with height
falls towards the area by next Wednesday and Thursday, while the
ECMWF develops a sub-tropical ridge over the Mid-Atlantic region
and keeps any type of frontal zone far north and west. Either way,
the CFWA will remain mostly dry while temperatures uptick slightly
each day as we introduce another round of summertime conditions
during the medium range.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: We've been seeing some robust convective
cells develop over our southern Upstate zones, and some activity
coming up from the SW and moving into our NE Georgia zones. Sct
convection will likely continue through the mid-morning hours.
Signals remain mixed wrt the potential for early morning fog/low
stratus, but any breaks in the clouds could permit LIFR conditions
to develop quickly over the mtn valleys and around KAVL. Winds
will be mainly light and SLY to SWLY for the bulk of the period,
but with an uptick in speed to about 10kt with some low-end gusts
this afternoon. I kept the PROB30s for convective chances for
the afternoon/evening hours with the approach of the front from
the NW. Most of the precip should be moving east of our fcst area
as the taf period ends at 06z.

Outlook: Generally fair weather and high pressure is expected
on Thursday in the wake of the frontal passage. The fair wx will
likely persist thru the weekend and into early next week. Mtn
valley fog and low stratus will remain possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...JDL/JPT
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
622 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-SCZ001-002-
004-005-010>012-019-091030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-
622 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening. The main threats will be cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy
downpours, and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ003-006>009-013-014-
091030-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Greenville Mountains-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Union SC-Chester-
622 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. The main threats will be cloud-to-ground lightning, damaging
winds, and isolated large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
755 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ057-072-081230-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
755 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Cabarrus
and southeastern Rowan Counties through 830 AM EDT...

At 754 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Downtown Concord, or near West Concord, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Downtown Concord, Kannapolis, West Concord, Mt Pleasant, Rockwell,
Charlotte Motor Speedway, Harrisburg, Gold Hill and High Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3535 8040 3533 8067 3545 8069
      3561 8024 3558 8021 3555 8021 3554 8020
      3553 8020 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1154Z 236DEG 10KT 3540 8064

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
826 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ036-037-057-081300-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-
826 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Davie,
southeastern Iredell and Rowan Counties through 900 AM EDT...

At 826 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Kannapolis, or near Mooresville, moving northeast
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salisbury, Kannapolis, Mooresville, China Grove, Spencer, Landis,
Enochville, Granite Quarry, Cooleemee and Cleveland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8067 3551 8079 3562 8089 3588 8053
      3582 8047 3580 8047 3579 8048 3577 8045
      3574 8046 3572 8042 3572 8035 3570 8033
      3568 8033 3567 8031 3565 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1226Z 235DEG 17KT 3559 8076

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
858 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ037-057-081330-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-
858 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Davie and
northwestern Rowan Counties through 930 AM EDT...

At 857 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Mocksville, or near Cooleemee, moving northeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mocksville, Salisbury, Bermuda Run, Cooleemee, Fork Church, Advance,
Farmington, Woodleaf and Piedmont Research Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8039 3585 8042
      3583 8043 3583 8046 3584 8047 3583 8049
      3577 8045 3574 8046 3572 8042 3567 8059
      3581 8072 3605 8054 3604 8049 3606 8046
      3601 8042 3599 8042 3596 8038 3589 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1257Z 235DEG 49KT 3579 8058

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1237 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ065-081700-
Henderson NC-
1237 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Henderson County through 100 PM EDT...

At 1237 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Hendersonville, or near Mills River, moving east at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mills River, Etowah, Forge Mountain and Horse Shoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 8267 3541 8264 3542 8251 3529 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 287DEG 5KT 3537 8261

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
100 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ065-081730-
Henderson NC-
100 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will continue to impact portions of
northern Henderson County through 130 PM EDT...

At 1259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Hendersonville, or over Mills River. This storm
was moving slowly east.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hendersonville, Mills River, Fletcher, Mountain Home, Asheville
Airport, Forge Mountain and Horse Shoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 8245 3535 8263 3540 8265 3544 8260
      3543 8257 3544 8255 3544 8254 3543 8255
      3542 8254 3543 8253 3545 8253 3545 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 250DEG 4KT 3539 8257

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CSH