Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 27, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
157 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary over North Carolina may produce more
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Afterward, high
pressure will bring drier and hotter conditions for Wednesday
and early Thursday. Another cold front should approach from the
northwest by Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Confidence is high for hot and dry weather on Wednesday.

The earlier fog from this morning has dissipated, and
temperatures for this afternoon have been nudged upward. While
drier air enters from the northwest, a cold front will stall
over North Carolina. The proximity of this boundary combined
with heat and moisture will yield another round of showers and
thunderstorms along the Virginia and North Carolina border.
Heavy downpours will be possible in the stronger storms.
Convection should wane after sunset.

High pressure will move over the Mid Atlantic tonight, but
lingering surface moisture could trigger more patchy fog in
parts of the Piedmont and along the New River. With a northwest
flow at the surface and aloft, the resultant downsloping
combined with plentiful sunshine should give hotter conditions
on Wednesday with mid 90s expected east of the Blue Ridge and
most of the mountains getting well into the 80s. Heat indices
could approach 100 degrees east of a line from Lynchburg to
Reidsville.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

...Hot And Drier For Thursday With Front Still Expected Late
Thursday Into Friday...

The highlight of the short term forecast will be the front that is
expected to arrive very late Thursday, and traverse across the
region Friday. The overall impact for this front continues to look
less prominent for our area as arrival time looks to be after sunset
Thursday when diurnal heating will be gone. Guidance points to a
decent QLCS system forming along the frontal boundary for the Ohio
Valley that will move eastward, but the loss of heating should
happen before it can finish its trip across WV to really impact us.

As the front moves across the area Thursday night into Friday,
expect some lose coverage in showers and eventually thunderstorm
for the afternoon. The likeliest place for more organized convection
will be near and south of the VA state line with the front pressing
southward, serving as a focal point for lift. Obviously alterations
in timing could happen depending on how fast the front can get
through.

Temperatures remain above normal for this part of the forecast
period.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

...Monitoring multiple features for enhanced precipitation chances...

The long term period should generally be characterized by somewhat
cooler temperatures than those that will be experienced this week.
Most of this is owed to the persistence presence of troughing from
Saturday onward. Consistent northwest flow aloft will only back to
westerly by Tuesday as the base of the trough approaches. Needless
to say, a consistent pattern of northwest flow is favorable for one
or more cold frontal passages, and the long term pattern does not
look to disappoint.

On Saturday, the cold front that will have led to precipitation
chances in the previous day is expected to be near the southern
portion of our forecast area. It is plausible that with convective
enhancement, the front will have cleared the CWA entirely by
Saturday, but deterministic guidance currently supports a scenario
where at least scattered convection will be plausible over our North
Carolina counties. The northern end of the forecast area will likely
experience dry and cooler conditions, with highs failing to reach
the 90s.

From Sunday onwards, the next heightened potential for showers and
storms diverges greatly among the main deterministic models. The GFS
begins to sag the next in the parade of fronts toward the area,
which would mean heightened rain chances over the northern half of
the CWA Sunday into Sunday night, with rain chances sagging
southward the next day. As of now, the ECMWF is over 24 hours slower
with this frontal feature, with rain chances approaching the
northern part of the area Monday night and Tuesday looking like the
main event from a precipitation standpoint. We will continue to
monitor model trends and anticipate convergence toward the true
solution as the event draws closer. For now, rain remains plausible
within the CWA anytime between Sunday and Tuesday. Both models do
agree, at least, that the upper-level trough and surface cold fronts
should keep temperatures at or below normal throughout the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are anticipated for all aviation sites through
most of the afternoon, but there may be scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the Virginia and North Carolina border as a
cold front drifts further southward. VCTS has been added for
DAN, but confidence is too low to mention anything elsewhere.

Drier air will arrive from the northwest overnight as high
pressure builds overhead. Patchy fog could develop near LYH,
DAN, and BCB by Wednesday morning. Confidence is too low to
include fog at LWB due to the aforementioned drier air. Good
flying weather is expected on Wednesday with a light northwest
breeze.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday night,
but it will head offshore on Thursday morning. By Thursday
afternoon, a cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms toward LWB first before spreading toward the other
aviation sites during Thursday night into Friday. Weak high
pressure will briefly pass to the north on Saturday, but another
cold front could arrive by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...DS/RR
LONG TERM...DS/NM
AVIATION...PW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
908 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-281315-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
908 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1140 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E SONTAG              36.94N 79.72W
07/26/2021                   FRANKLIN           VA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

WHP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
402 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

NCZ001-002-019-272030-
Ashe-Wilkes-Alleghany-
402 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALLEGHANY...NORTH
CENTRAL WILKES AND EAST CENTRAL ASHE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

At 402 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Doughton Park,
or over Laurel Springs, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sparta...
Laurel Springs...
Traphill...
Mc Grady...
Roaring Gap...
Stone Mountain State Park...
and Abshers.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3645 8139 3653 8119 3640 8097 3640 8096
      3621 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 316DEG 6KT 3642 8122

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
453 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

NCZ019-272130-
Wilkes-
453 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN WILKES
COUNTY...

At 453 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Traphill to Mulberry. Movement was
southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
North Wilkesboro...
Wilkesboro...
Ronda...
Traphill...
Mulberry...
Buck...
and Millers Creek.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3604 8111 3604 8113 3618 8131 3640 8106
      3640 8104 3638 8103 3637 8102 3637 8098
      3638 8098 3637 8092 3634 8090 3633 8087
      3630 8087 3603 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 314DEG 7KT 3634 8104 3621 8118

BMG