An isolated severe thunderstorm produced a couple instances of wind damage over central Virginia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
An isolated severe thunderstorm produced a couple instances of wind damage over central Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 8:26 PM EST, 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 926 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal zone will remain draped near or over the Middle Atlantic through Wednesday, reinforced by disturbances aloft. A stronger cold front will cross the region Thursday into Friday. High pressure will follow for the first half of the weekend before another frontal boundary approaches by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An isolated shower has developed over Augusta County this evening. Hoping that this is short-lived as there is an abundance of dry air per 00Z IAD RAOB. A thicker layer of smoke was also seen right around sunset over southern PA and western MD progressing southeast. Mainly clear, but hazy skies are expected overnight with lows ranging from the mid 60s in the mtns to the mid 70s along the bay. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave trough currently over Saskatchewan in Canada is expected to cross the region Wednesday afternoon. This should enhance the pre-existing frontal zone/lee trough (possibly merging with another weak front/surface reflection). Lift from these features will act on the instability present to result in scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Modest flow aloft may lead to some loose organization, perhaps resulting in a focused cluster/corridor or two of gusty to damaging winds, but certainty in specifics is low a day in advance given the overall marginal environment for organization. Notably, the 12z HRRR mixes dew points to around 50 during the afternoon, whereas as the NAMNest holds dew points in the mid 60s (as does most other guidance). This plays a big role in available CAPE and subsequent depth of convection. Regardless, very steep lapse rates in the lower levels and ample DCAPE should result in an environment favorable for strong downdrafts/bursts in the stronger cells. A much more potent (convectively augmented) shortwave trough and accompanying mid-level speed max are expected to pivot across the area Thursday afternoon. There are uncertainties in the extent of upstream convection and clouds which may temper instability, though the 12z guidance overall has trended higher with projected instability/CAPE. The seasonably strong trough and wind field with moderate to strong CAPE may result in one or more clusters of organized thunderstorms (perhaps initiating as more discrete cells for a time) capable of damaging wind and hail, heavy rain/flooding given high humidity, and even a tornado threat. The extent of severe weather will be highly dependent on the evolution of upstream convection over the next 48 hours as well as the magnitude of instability locally. Overall, the threat is marginal at this time due to low confidence, but with a high ceiling; a worst case scenario would be one where widespread gusty to damaging winds are observed due to the favorable background environment. Temperatures should run a little above normal Wednesday through Thursday before heat and humidity take a tumble behind the front by the end of the week. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A few isolated showers are possible across our southern zones and bay waters both Friday afternoon and again Saturday evening with a weak boundary nearby. Otherwise, the weekend looks slightly cooler by a couple of degrees compared to previous days with highs in the middle to upper 80s. The warmer day appears to be Friday. Later Sunday into Monday would be the next better chance of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front pushes in from the northwest and nearly stalls to the south by later in the day Monday. High temperatures will approach 90 ahead of the front but could be held in the middle to upper 80s in any cloud cover and convection. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the end of the week, with a few potential exceptions: (1) Patchy fog may encroach on the CHO/MRB terminals 8-12z Wed (2) TSRA potential both Wed PM and Thu PM w/ gusty wind possible Otherwise, flow will be somewhat erratic in direction with multiple weak frontal boundaries nearby, and river/bay breeze influences for DCA/BWI/MTN during the afternoon and evening. Any shower activity could pose an MVFR threat near CHO and possibly DCA Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions. Winds generally northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots Friday, becoming northwest around 5 knots Friday night. Winds northwest 5 to 10 knots Saturday, becoming southwest then south around 5 knots Saturday night. && .MARINE... Through early Thursday, wind outside of convection should stay under SCA levels. There is some increase in southwesterly winds expected on Thursday which may require a SCA for portions of the waters. A better chance for thunderstorms exists on Wednesday and Thursday, with Special Marine Warnings possible. A Small Craft Advisory is possible Friday. Winds northwest 10 to 20 knots w/ higher gusts Friday. Winds diminishing northwest 5 to 10 knots Friday night and Saturday, becoming south 5 to 10 knots Saturday night. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...DHOF NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...DHOF LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...LFR/KLW MARINE...LFR/KLW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 723 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ052>057-281000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 723 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, isolated occurrences of flash flooding are also possible on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be necessary Wednesday and Thursday. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- WVZ050>053-055-281000- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy- 723 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, isolated occurrences of flash flooding are also possible on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be necessary Wednesday and Thursday. MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-281000- Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 723 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, isolated occurrences of flash flooding are also possible on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be necessary Wednesday and Thursday.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 151 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:16 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees blew down, some bringing down wires and power poles near Mount Sidney.
Numerous trees, branches and wires blew down in the southern part of the City of Staunton, including near Ritchie Boulevard and on US-11 Lee Jackson Highway near VA-262 Woodrow Wilson Parkway. Part of the tin roof of a building blew off in the 100 block of East Hampton Street.
A tree blew down on VA-608 Long Meadow Road in Fishersville.
A tree blew down on VA-750 Old Turnpike Road near VA-6 Afton Mountain Road. A tree blew down on VA-600 Stagecoach Road near VA-6 Afton Mountain Road.
Several trees blew down in extreme western Albemarle County east of Afton, including near the intersection of VA-151 Critzer Shop Road and US-250 Rockfish Gap Turnpike, and on VA-690 Newtown Road near VA-796 Brooksville Road.
A tree blew down onto VA-635 Craigs Store Road near Craigs Mountain Lane.
A tree blew down on VA-634 Napier Lane near Monocan Drive.
Several trees blew down near Wintergreen, including along MD-151 Patrick Henry Highway.
A tree blew down on VA-6 River Road near Riverfield Farm Lane.
A tree blew down on US-29 Thomas Nelson Highway near the Amherst County line.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 962940, 962939, 962941, 962942, 962937, 962943, 962944, 962938, 962945, 962946.