A line of showers and thunderstorms along a gust front, well ahead of a cold front, produced localized heavy rain and flash flooding. Showers and thunderstorms trained over the same areas for a period of time which led to excessive rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MHX wrote it up.
A line of showers and thunderstorms along a gust front, well ahead of a cold front, produced localized heavy rain and flash flooding. Showers and thunderstorms trained over the same areas for a period of time which led to excessive rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 26, 11:23 PM EST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1223 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight then stall and dissipate to the north through mid week. Another weak cold front will approach from the northwest late week then stall and dissipate over the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 10 PM Mon...Convection continues to outperform most Hi-res guidance this evening, with a line of showers and thunderstorms along the US Hwy 264 corridor continuing to push south late this evening. Have adjusted the forecast to continue the progression of this line with the outflow south across the area through the overnight hours, especially given the 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE that remain inland. This is in direct contrast to most CAMs indicating that demise of the storms within the next hour or two. The wind threat has remained limited this evening, with severe weather unlikely overnight, but heavy downpours and moderate lightning are still occurring, with localized flooding of very poor drainage areas possible. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm could hand around into the early morning hours as ENC remains in an area of modest low level convergence ahead of a front stalling to our north. A muggy night is on tap with dewpoints and temps in the mid 70s under scattered to broken low cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... As of 320 PM Mon...The front mentioned above washes out over our area, and for most, brings us a much better chance at precipitation. Locally heavy rain is possible, with the highest chances along the Crystal Coast and southwest part of the forecast area. Temps won't be quite as high as today with the increased cloud cover, but dewpoints will be quite oppressive. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday...High pressure will remain offshore through the week, with cold front lingering to the NW. The front will likely push through late week or next weekend. Tue through Wednesday...Unsettled pattern early to mid week with the upper ridge remaining over central CONUS and a cycle of troughs rotating around multiple lobes of energy over the NE. Deeper moisture advects into the area combined with increased upper support, and the approaching sfc front will lead to best rain chances through mid week, enhanced by diurnal heating. Front pushes into the northern forecast area Tuesday before lifting back to the NW, where it is forecast to linger through much of the upcoming week. Forecast area will remain in the warm sector Tue and could see pretty decent coverage of showers and storms, mainly inland aided by the seabreeze. Will continue chance/likely pops. Will begin to dry out a bit Wed, though sct diurnal convection expected. Temps near climo. Thursday into Friday...High pressure will remain in control offshore, with lingering frontal boundary to the W/NW and troughing inland. Lack of forcing and ridging aloft should keep Thu dry, with precip chances increasing again Fri and Sat. Temps a few deg above climo Thu and Fri, with highs in the mid 90s inland. Friday looks to be the hotter day with heat index values AoA 105 from Craven county to the west and south. Late Friday through the weekend...Low pressure forms along the inland SFC trough just to our west bringing more unsettled weather. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 06Z Wed/... As of 1220 AM Tue...Outflow driven thunderstorms cont to bisect the region with overall weakening trend noted past hour. Expect will see some pds of sub VFR thru 12z espcly inland and N where it rained as low lvls are saturated with winds light in wake of convection. After sunrise shld see conditions grad return to VFR by mid to late morn and cont in that range thru rest of period. Will again have convection firing this aftn into the evening that could result in brief period or two of sub VFR. LONG TERM /Tue night through Friday/... As of 345 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Thursday will be dry while diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday afternoon/... As of 830 PM Mon...A outflow boundary very slowly working across the waters from north to south could bring breezy to gusty northerly winds and moderate lightning activity, especially for areas north of the Neuse River/Cedar Island/Ocracoke, through the overnight hours. Ahead of a cold front southwest winds may briefly gust to around 20 kts outside of storms through early tonight, otherwise southwest winds 10 to 15 kts expected through Tuesday. Seas 2 to 3 feet. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 345 AM Monday...Offshore high pressure will remain in control through the period. A cold front may push into the northern waters Tue before lifting back north. SW winds 5-15 kt continues Tue through Thu morning, increasing to 15-20 kt late Thu into Friday. Seas will mostly be 2-3 ft through the period, with 3-4 ft seas across the outer waters starting Thursday night during period of stronger flow. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...EH/CB SHORT TERM...EH LONG TERM...CQD/CEB AVIATION...RF/CB/CEB MARINE...EH/CB/CEB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 844 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 NCZ195-196-199-204-205-280045- West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Ocracoke Island- Hatteras Island- 844 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Rip Current Risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ079-090>092-094-193-194-198-280045- Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven- Inland Onslow- 844 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ029-044>047-080-081-280045- Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde- 844 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ203-280045- Northern Outer Banks- 844 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:08 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain caused flash flooding and led to Vandiford Thomas Road to be closed near Taylor Road.
Mount Herman Church Road was closed near North Carolina Highway 91 due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 978106, 978107.