A potent mid level disturbance lifted east-northeast and into the Mid-Atlantic during the evening on the 6th, while inducing surface low pressure along the southeast United States coast, which lifted northeastward and along the North Carolina Coast during the early morning hours of the 7th. This resulted in widespread precipitation developing across the area, with a period rain changing to snow…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A potent mid level disturbance lifted east-northeast and into the Mid-Atlantic during the evening on the 6th, while inducing surface low pressure along the southeast United States coast, which lifted northeastward and along the North Carolina Coast during the early morning hours of the 7th. This resulted in widespread precipitation developing across the area, with a period rain changing to snow during the early morning hours of the 7th across the northwest Piedmont. One to two inches of wet snow fell across this area, though impact were fairly minimal with roadways only slushy at worst, with accumulation generally limited to grassy areas and elevated surfaces.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 6, 9:10 PM EST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 910 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure developing over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will move northeast along the Southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts tonight and Sunday. High pressure will build in from the northwest and north Sunday evening through Monday, before it moves into New England Monday night. A warm front to our south will then move northward into the Carolinas then stall out, holding over the region through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 910 PM Saturday... ...Winter weather advisory for Forsyth county continues for tonight... Primary forecast adjustments this evening are to cut back on the dusting of snow accum over the E and S Piedmont and nudge them up slightly over W Forsyth (but still around 1 inch). The precip shield is overspreading the area on schedule, with the initially high dewpoint depressions dropping quickly with onset. Precip has changed over to all snow over the higher terrain of NE GA and W SC and W NC, where surface wet bulbs are roughly 35F and lower, with a dewpoint depression under about 4F. The low levels over central NC are moistening quickly across our S and W, but overall the wet bulbs are 38F+ over all but the far NW, with little opportunity to cool these down much (with no good cold air source), even as precip rates increase over the next few hours. This fits with latest model trends which keep the near-ground air too warm over much of the Triangle area for anything other than rain. As such, have trimmed away at the already-sparse forecast snow accum across the E and S Piedmont. Forsyth county should face similar challenges of limited cool air to support much accumulation, but based on what we're seeing upstream with quick one half to one inch totals and our precip rates yet to really ramp up, will keep accumulation forecasts in Forsyth around an inch, slightly higher in the far NW part. Still expect lows from 32 NW to low 40s SE. -GIH Earlier discussion from 300 PM: Latest trends and guidance support ongoing forecast. Max amounts are likely to be no better than a wet coating over all but the extreme NW, where a longer duration of mostly snow should generate amounts closer to an inch. The latest surface analysis shows the Arctic cold front still off to our NW across the Ohio Valley, where it will hold through tonight. As expected, the surface low in the NE Gulf along the warm front continues to deepen, with secondary cyclogenesis already underway off the NE FL coast. The surface high centered just off the NE NC coast will shift further offshore this evening, and this combined with the secondary low strengthening and pushing NE near the GA/SC coast will quickly increase the low level moisture flux into central NC. What are now quite dry low levels (evidenced by WV imagery, RAP proximity soundings, and current 25-40 F surface dewpoint depressions) should quickly moisten late this afternoon / early evening from S/W to N/E with lowering cloud bases as the SE 925-850 mb flow ramps up, leading to increasing/deepening moist upglide, all in tandem with increasing upper divergence in the RRQ of the jet streak to our N. Will stay with increasing pops to categorical by late evening, with both moisture and forcing for ascent peaking in the early overnight hours before starting to trend down from the SW toward daybreak. The column appears to be plenty cold and wet enough aloft for ice in the cloud from late evening through the night, but outside of the N and W Piedmont, surface temps will likely be too warm for any appreciable snow accumulation, and this area will also become increasingly influenced by the encroaching warm nose aloft. The exception to this will be in the Triad which should see as much as a couple of hours of mostly snow, and this is supported by recent HRRR runs depicting a batch of enhanced simulated reflectivities crossing the Triad in the 05z-07z time frame, suggesting the potential for this focused lift to sufficiently cool the column to flip the ptype to mostly snow. This mechanism may generate isolated snow islands elsewhere over the Piedmont or far N Coastal Plain overnight, however both the predictability of this and the confidence in this occurring outside of the Triad is not high. The official forecast will show a storm total snow nearing 1 inch in and NW of INT with amounts generally a dusting to a half inch elsewhere in the area NW of Hwy 64. Expect lows of 31-33 near and NW of I-85 and in the 35-42 range to the S and E. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM Saturday... The coastal low is expected to be just off the N Outer Banks of NC by 12z Sun and moving NE, with the 850 mb cyclone center just to its W and also poised to exit the area through the morning. Initial low level winds from the NE will shift around to NW with the column slowly drying, but we will see one last slug of forcing for ascent as the mid level shortwave trough now shifting from OK into AR crosses NC/VA Sun morning. While there could be a little wet snow mixed in with this final batch of precip, we do start losing the ice aloft in the -12C to -20C depth, plus surface temps will be warming slowly, so most of this should be rain or a mix at most. Precip should be ending from SW to NE as we get on the subsiding and drying backside of the shortwave trough, although wraparound moisture may keep low clouds and patchy drizzle over our N sections well into the afternoon, so will be slow to clear things out. Highs in the low-mid 40 NE ranging to low 50s in the SW where there should be decent sunshine for much of the afternoon. Expect clearing overall Sun night, but the moist ground and the low level northeasterly flow as chilly surface ridging starts to build in from the N may allow some stratus to develop over our NE overnight. Lows from the mid 20s to lower 30s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 PM Saturday... At the risk of sounding like a broken record from the last couple of days, while parts of the extended forecast include higher confidence, the majority of the forecast is a low confidence forecast. All models point to high pressure building across the Mid-Atlantic states on Monday, resulting in a dry day. By Tuesday morning, the region will be pinched between two different systems, one moving across the Ohio River Valley and a second moving along the Gulf Coast. Have made little change to this part of the forecast, keeping slight chance pops after midnight and chance pops for much of Tuesday as the Ohio River Valley low's cold front moves across the state. As the cold front moves through, a slight chance of showers will remain east of I-95 Tuesday evening, but the rest of Tuesday night and all of Wednesday are expected to be dry. By Wednesday night the next storm systems begin to move into the region. By Thursday morning there should be one storm system over the Gulf states, while a second surface low will be off the South Carolina coast. However, both systems are expected to hold their own and track to the northeast, so this is not a Miller B cyclogenesis scenario. Confidence is high enough in widespread precipitation that pops have been bumped up to likely on Thursday and Thursday evening. While overnight lows Wednesday night will drop into the mid 30s, a warm nose around 850 mb between 3 and 6 C (depending on the GFS or ECMWF) should be warm enough to melt any snowflakes. The warm nose should allow all precipitation to reach the surface as liquid, and the above freezing surface temperatures should allow for rain instead of a freezing rain threat. Confidence in the forecast plummets Friday, because while both the 12Z ECMWF and GFS show the pair of lows well out of the region, the GFS dries out conditions while the ECMWF brings another wave of low pressure along a trailing cold front and has another low pressure system sitting over the forecast area by Saturday morning. Have stuck with the NBM forecast, which goes with slight chance pops Friday night and is dry on Saturday. Temperatures through the extended period do not appear to be too far from climatology. The potential cold blast that has been advertised for the last week continues to be pushed back, with long range models not showing the arrival of colder air until at least the second half of next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 725 PM Saturday... Initially VFR conditions will yield to a shield of precipitation and lowering ceilings and visibility restrictions that will trend through MVFR-IFR range over cntl NC during the next several hours, as a coastal low strengthens and tracks up the Southeast coast. After a brief period of rain at onset, that precipitation will be primarily snow, possibly moderate to heavy for a several hours, at INT/GSO. All or mostly rain is expected elsewhere. Snow will then likely mix with or change to a cold rain even at INT/GSO by around 09Z Sun, with continued widespread LIFR-MVFR conditions and lingering rain or drizzle otherwise and elsewhere through early Sun. VFR conditions are generally expected to develop throughout cntl NC by Sun afternoon, as the coastal low tracks up the middle Atlantic coast. Low level wind shear may also briefly result at FAY between 05-10Z Sun and RWI between 07-14Z Sun. Outlook: A band of wrap-around moisture behind the departing coastal low may result in another episode of IFR conditions Sun night-Mon morning. Another pair of frontal systems will result in a chance of rain and IFR-MVFR conditions late Mon night-Tue and again late Wed- Thu. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ021. && SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Raleigh NC 914 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 NCZ021-071100- Forsyth- 914 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Travel may be hazardous early Sunday morning with a potential for slushy roads. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to share their reports of winter weather accumulation with the National Weather Service in Raleigh, either directly or via chat or social media. NCZ007>009-022>025-038-039-071100- Person-Granville-Vance-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson- Randolph- 914 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A light accumulation of wet snow is possible this evening into tonight. A dusting to one half inch is possible. Precipitation is expected to become all rain before sunrise. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ010-011-026>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-071100- Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson- Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland- Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 914 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1013 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 NCZ021-022-038-070630- FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WINSTON-SALEM, GREENSBORO, HIGH POINT, LEXINGTON, AND THOMASVILLE 1013 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 ...Rain changing to snow soon... Rain will rapidly change to snow around or shortly after 11 PM, with a few hour period of moderate to heavy snow possible through 2 AM. Temperatures through that time will fall from the mid 30s to 32 or 33 degrees; and this will allow snow to accumulate up to a half inch per hour. Resultant snow accumulations tonight over Forsyth County are expected to range from one to two inches, with a solid dusting to up to one inch across the surrounding Triad region, including northern Davidson County and northern and western Guilford County. While these accumulations will be maximized on elevated surfaces, the briefly heavier snow intensity will also allow for a light accumulation on area roadways. Precipitation intensity will decrease with an accompanying slight rise in surface temperatures after 2 or 3 AM, at which time the precipitation will mix with or change to a cold rain, and earlier accumulation will begin to melt. MWS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 0.5 inches to 1.25 inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 0.5 inches to 1.25 inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from 0.5 inches to 1.25 inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from a trace to 0.5 inches across northern portions of the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from a trace to 1 inch across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 945388, 945389, 945393, 945396, 945397.