Tropical Storm Elsa impacted the coastal waters with thunderstorm wind gusts.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OKX wrote it up.
Tropical Storm Elsa impacted the coastal waters with thunderstorm wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 12:38 AM EST, 4 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
138 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the north tonight, stalling over
the area. The front then lifts back north on Thursday. Elsa
approaches us through the day Thursday and impacts the region mainly
Thursday night and Friday. Please refer to the latest forecast and
track information on Elsa from the National Hurricane Center. Weak
high pressure briefly builds in this weekend before a warm front
moves in and pushes north of the area early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Minor changes to temperatures, winds and sky cover with this
update. Showers and a linear thunderstorm complex have been
relegated to the Lower Hudson Valley and extreme SW CT as a
shortwave approaches as noted on GOES-16 6.2 micron channel.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis does indicate an SBCAPE gradient in the
vicinity which the storms appear to be riding along. Biggest
threat is strong winds (still some DCAPE in the area) with any
storm and possible minor flooding as well. The severe threat
appears to be over elsewhere, and so elected to expire the
severe thunderstorm watch.
Warm and muggy conditions continue overnight with lows
generally in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The stationary front shifts back north as a warm front in the
morning. This will lessen the potential of boundary-influenced
moisture convergence in the area. Shower chances will however
increase through the day along with a chance of thunderstorms. Best
chances will be over the NW zones where synoptic scale lift
increases late in the day ahead of the right-entrance quadrant of an
upper jet streak. This jet streak will probably have greater
influence over the NW half of the forecast area into Thursday night.
PWATs increase to around 2 inches so heavy downpours will be
possible. Then late at night with the approach of Elsa, even greater
chances of heavy downpours. A flash flood watch now begins during
the late night hours for all but eastern LI and SE CT.
Regarding heat headlines, have gone a little below NBM deterministic
guidance for high temps since based on temps aloft and partly to
mostly cloudy conditions. Combined with the dewpoints, heat index
values for portions of Union and Essex Counties reach 95-97, but not
more than half than any one forecast zone. Not enough confidence to
extend the heat advisory in the areas into Thursday, especially
considering the potential cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Elsa or remnants of Elsa pass over or nearby the forecast area
Friday morning with the Flash Flood Watch continuing through
the morning hours. See the hydrology section for more details on
impacts from the rain. Winds will pickup for a short time
Friday morning as they shift more east, then finally west to
northwest in most areas by noon. Rain chances and wind then
drop off in the afternoon and evening hours. Please refer to
the latest forecast and track information on Elsa from the
National Hurricane Center.
Upr ridge builds over the Atlc thru the long term. This will
result in a warming trend and increasing chances for shwrs and
tstms. Southwest flow aloft tends to favor interior/wrn zones
for best pcpn chances, but there is some uncertainty wrt the the
position of the ridge and the track and timing of the
associated upr low. The cwa could be close enough to the storm
track on the nrn periphery of the ridge to produce several
rounds of active wx. On the other hand, a drier scenario would
favor a few airmass tstms each day mainly over the interior. For
now, the blended approach was taken and the NBM followed.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak cold front approaches the region from the north tonight,
then weakens over the area on Thu.
Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. The threat for showers and
thunderstorms remains fairly low tonight with the best chance
for any storms to be northern terminals, mainly KBDR and KGON.
Some patchy fog is possible in the outlying airports after 08Z,
with the highest probability of occurrence for eastern
terminals.
Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.
VCSH from 12Z to 18Z, then VCTS from 18Z onward. However, VCTS
is possible from the 12Z to 18Z timeframe.
Winds become light and variable tonight with strengthening S/SE
flow on Thu.
Remnants of Elsa approach the area Thursday night and into early
Friday with heavy rain and thunderstorms likely after 06Z
Friday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for thunderstorm uncertainty.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thu night... VFR early, becoming MVFR to IFR with shwrs and
tstms possible.
.Fri...Elsa impacts possible. MVFR or lower likely. Locally hvy rain
and embedded tstms possible.
.Sat...Mainly VFR but isold shwrs and tstms possible.
.Sun...Chances for shwrs and tstms.
.Mon...Chances for shwrs and tstms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions remain on all waters tonight. Southerly winds
ahead of Elsa's approach then begin to increase on Thursday into
Thursday night. At least SCA conds are probable Thursday
evening with potentially stronger winds for late Thursday night
into Friday as Elsa passes through or nearby.
Please refer to the latest forecast and track information on Elsa
from the National Hurricane Center.
Seas on the ocean will subside on Sat, with waves blw 5 ft expected
by Sat ngt attm. Winds will be blw sca lvls on all waters Sun-Tue.
Seas on the ocean may touch 5 ft at times Sun and Mon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding is possible with any storms overnight.
Flooding is possible late Thursday through Friday with periods of
rain and potential thunderstorms. 2 to 3 inches of rainfall
with locally higher amounts possible during this time. Areas of
poor drainage/urban flooding are likely, with potential for
some areas of flash flooding and flooding of fast reacting
small rivers and streams.
No hydrologic concerns from Saturday through Wednesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There remains a high risk of rip currents at ocean beaches through
Thursday. Surf height of around 3 to 5 ft is expected through
Thursday due to 3 to 5 ft southerly wind waves mixed with
background long period SE swells. Dangerous rip currents are
likely to continue on Friday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Tropical Storm Watch for CTZ008-010>012.
Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...Tropical Storm Watch for NYZ078>081-179.
Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
NYZ067>075-176>179.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/DBR
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JMC/BG
AVIATION...JP/MW
MARINE...JMC/JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...<!doctype html>
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</html>Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1229 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
CTZ005-009-NYZ067>070-080515-
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Putnam-Rockland-Northern
Westchester-Orange-
1229 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FAIRFIELD...
WESTCHESTER...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...PUTNAM AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES...
At 1229 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Millbrook to near Pomona. Movement
was east at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Stamford, Danbury, Newburgh, Ossining, Peekskill, New Canaan,
Haverstraw, Mount Kisco, Mahopac, Lake Carmel, West Point, Sherman,
Brewster, Cold Spring and Newtown.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 4165 7349 4164 7350 4150 7344 4151 7339
4149 7337 4147 7332 4147 7330 4145 7330
4144 7327 4113 7350 4119 7428 4159 7396
4159 7395 4153 7400 4146 7400 4144 7398
4149 7393 4153 7353 4167 7352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 280DEG 27KT 4183 7366 4119 7411
NVSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1249 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
CTZ005-009-NYZ070-080530-
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Northern Westchester-
1249 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD AND CENTRAL
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...
At 1249 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near New Canaan,
moving northeast at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Bridgeport, Stamford, Norwalk, Shelton, New Canaan, Newtown,
Fairfield, Greenwich, Stratford, Trumbull, Westport, Ridgefield,
Darien, Monroe and Bethel.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 4142 7332 4123 7311 4121 7311 4100 7352
4099 7355 4113 7369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 229DEG 19KT 4111 7356
NVSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
126 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
CTZ005-NYZ068-070-080615-
Northern Fairfield-Putnam-Northern Westchester-
126 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL FAIRFIELD...
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER AND EASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES...
At 125 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Danbury, moving
northeast at 40 mph.
Locations impacted include...
Danbury, Sherman, Brewster, Newtown, Ridgefield, Bethel, Brookfield,
New Fairfield, Redding, Patterson, Putnam Lake, Brewster Hill and
Peach Lake.
LAT...LON 4163 7349 4155 7346 4152 7344 4149 7344
4151 7339 4142 7331 4125 7356 4139 7368
4152 7360 4153 7353 4166 7352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 225DEG 43KT 4140 7353
DBRSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
130 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
CTZ005-006-080615-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-
130 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FAIRFIELD AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...
At 130 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Newtown, moving
northeast at 80 mph.
Locations impacted include...
Waterbury, Danbury, Shelton, Naugatuck, Southbury, Newtown,
Fairfield, Trumbull, Cheshire, Ridgefield, Monroe, Bethel, Wilton,
Seymour and Brookfield.
LAT...LON 4148 7293 4123 7328 4121 7330 4121 7333
4120 7333 4118 7337 4118 7338 4117 7339
4117 7341 4123 7350 4130 7355 4137 7354
4149 7337 4147 7331 4149 7333 4151 7332
4151 7316 4156 7317 4157 7310 4158 7308
TIME...MOT...LOC 0530Z 228DEG 68KT 4140 7328
DBRSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
224 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
CTZ007-008-011-080715-
Southern Middlesex-Northern New London-Northern Middlesex-
224 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NEW LONDON AND
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...
At 223 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Colchester,
moving northeast at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Jewett City, Middletown, Norwich, Colchester, East Hampton, Durham,
Salem, Chester, East Lyme, Griswold, East Haddam, Haddam, Lebanon,
Killingworth and Preston.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 4166 7216 4166 7212 4163 7196 4164 7184
4142 7223 4144 7224 4144 7227 4140 7228
4135 7236 4136 7261 4139 7261 4142 7265
4163 7249 4159 7247 4158 7247 4160 7233
4164 7233 4167 7227 4169 7227 4171 7224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 229DEG 24KT 4152 7231
MWThe Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 21 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:17 UTC.
11 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A marine thunderstorm wind gust of 40 knots was measured at Blue Point station.
A marine thunderstorm wind gust of 36 knots was measured at Shinnecock Light station.
A marine thunderstorm wind gust of 36 knots was measured at East Moriches CG station.
A marine thunderstorm wind gust of 34 knots was measured at Buoy 44025.
A marine thunderstorm wind gust of 35 knots was measured at Buoy 44065.
A marine thunderstorm wind gust of 44 knots was measured at the 44025 Buoy.
A marine thunderstorm wind gust of 38 knots was measured at Buoy 44065.
A marine thunderstorm wind gust of 41 knots was measured at Fire Island CG.
A marine thunderstorm wind gust of 37 knots was measured at Eaton's Neck.
A marine thunderstorm wind gust of 38 knots was measured at Buoy 44017.
A marine thunderstorm wind gust of 36 knots was measured at KGWL mesonet station.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Atlantic Coastal Waters in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 974117, 974121, 974120, 974091, 974099, 974087, 974094, 974407, 974408, 974413, 974429.