Remnants of a convective complex passed south of the area. However, the northern fringe of convection associated with it clipped our area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
Remnants of a convective complex passed south of the area. However, the northern fringe of convection associated with it clipped our area. Strong storms moved across eastern Lake Erie and persisted onto land and tracking into Chautauqua County. A brief velocity signature was present with this cell with only one report of damage received.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 8:55 AM EST, 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 955 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage will bring showers and thunderstorms today, with some showers possible through Friday morning. Cooler weather will prevail Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds back across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Impressive mid level shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will cross the region today. Steady rain on the northern fringe of a convective complex has spread across Western New York late this morning. This will bring a soaking rainfall with some embedded thunderstorms to the Niagara Frontier and Buffalo metro area through around noon. This area should weaken by early afternoon as it slides east of Rochester. Of more concern, is the southern flank of this system which will move across eastern Lake Erie and into the Western Southern Tier late this morning. This convection has the potential to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Updated the zones and HWO to reflect this risk. Second shot of convection should evolve during the afternoon and this evening as surface cold front crosses the region. Atmosphere will may have enough time to recover for the morning activity with at least moderate instability developing. Shear profiles will be sufficient for at least some potential for some stronger thunderstorms, mainly along the western Southern Tier where a marginal risk is outlooked by SPC. North of this, may remain stabilized from the initial round of rain and showers. There may be a few lingering showers tonight, especially south of the lakes where some upslope/lake enhancement may develop within incoming colder airmass. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Stagnant upper air pattern throughout the short term period will place a longwave trough over the Northeastern United States, supporting unseasonably cooler weather throughout the entirety of the period. Looking further into the details, the shortwave trough axis and corresponding surface low that crossed the region the day and night prior, will be exiting the Northeastern United States Friday morning. This will place the region under general northwesterly flow, which will advect in much cooler air into the region causing temperatures at 850mb to drop into +7-9C range by Friday morning. Left over moisture along with the cooler temperatures will support lake enhanced showers southeast of both lakes Friday morning. Meanwhile, surface high pressure to the west over the western Great Lakes will begin to slide southeast, influencing the region with its subsidence and dry air. That said, the dry air filtering across the region Friday will cause lake enhanced rain shower activity to subside. Additionally, the dry air will promote sunny skies Friday, though northwesterly flow along with cold air advection will keep temperatures at bay, with highs warming up into the mid to upper 60s. High pressure will then slide southeast over the Central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday night, which will continue to promote northwesterly winds across the region. Some lake effect clouds may develop southeast of both lakes overnight, though showers are not expected as low inversion heights should prevent lake effect rain showers. Otherwise, temperatures Friday night will fall into the mid 40s across the higher terrain in the interior Southern Tier and North Country, with a range of 50s along the Lake Plains, and some low 60s along the immediate lake shores. High pressure will then shift east-southeast across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday, which will maintain dry weather through the majority of the day on Saturday. Meanwhile, the next shortwave will begin to rotate through the upper level trough aloft Saturday morning, initially placing its associated surface low and fronts across the Upper Great Lakes. This new system will then slide southeast across the Central Great Lakes Saturday, reaching WNY by Saturday evening. As both the shortwave trough and surface low approach the region Saturday night, expect chances for showers to increase from northwest to southeast. An abundance of cloud cover Saturday night will modulate temperatures, promoting lows ranging in the 50s, and a few low 60s along the immediate lakeshores. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Longwave trough aloft over the Northeastern United States will continue to promote unseasonably cooler temperatures throughout the long term period with highs ending the weekend and starting the new work week in the upper 60s and low 70s. Slight warming by the end of the period will create highs in the mid to upper 70s, by mid week. Otherwise, with the longwave pattern overhead a couple of shortwaves will pass through during the weekend and first half of the work week. The first shortwave (previously mentioned in the short term discussion) will pass its surface low and attendant cold front across the region Sunday ahead of the shortwave trough axis. This will promote likely PoPs Sunday. Then chances for showers continue Sunday night as the shortwave trough axis crosses overhead of the area. Monday and Tuesday, surface high pressure and ridging aloft will promote a period of dry weather. Meanwhile, the next shortwave and surface low will pass across the Hudson Bay Monday night. As both features travel east, the associate surface cold front will travel east across Ontario and the Central Great Lakes Tuesday, before crossing the area Wednesday. This will allow for chances for showers to return Wednesday. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and embedded thunderstorms move across WNY through around 16Z impacting KBUF/KIAG/KJHW. Heavy rain and gusty winds are possible at KJHW. Mainly VFR outside of MVFR/IFR in storms. This activity will likely end for a time early this afternoon, before another round of showers and thunderstorms developing later this afternoon into this evening as a cold front moves through with MVFR cigs. After midnight tonight, the convection will wind down with only scattered showers, but cigs remaining MVFR or lower. Outlook... Friday...MVFR/VFR. A chance of showers with lingering clouds south of the lakes. Saturday...VFR. Sunday...MVFR. Showers likely. Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... A general light southerly flow this morning will freshen from the southwest this afternoon with a chop developing on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, especially offshore into international waters. A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes early tonight. Winds will increase from the north and northwest tonight into Friday and may near 20 knots. Small Craft Advisories will be needed later tonight into the Friday time frame as a broader onshore flow develops especially on Lake Ontario. High pressure moving in will bring somewhat lighter winds Friday night and Saturday, but choppy conditions will likely continue especially on Lake Ontario. Colder air coming across the lakes pushing delta Ts to near 18C Friday and Friday night, but relatively low equilibrium level and less than ideal gradient flow suggest a very low, but non-zero risk for waterspouts during that time period. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...Apffel/TMA MARINE...TMA
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 945 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 NYZ019>021-301345- Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- 945 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. Thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ007-008-010>014-085-301345- Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario- Southern Erie- 945 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001-006-301345- Niagara-Oswego- 945 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a high swim risk along the beaches of Lake Ontario Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ002>005-301345- Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga- 945 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a high swim risk along the beaches of Lake Ontario Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-301345- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 945 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-301345- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 945 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf Apffel
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
959 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021
NYZ019-020-085-291500-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
959 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CATTARAUGUS...
SOUTHERN ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...
At 958 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Evangola State Park to near Dunkirk
to 13 miles northwest of Lake Erie State Park to 10 miles northwest
of North East. Movement was east at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Jamestown, Dunkirk, Fredonia, Springville, Westfield, Lakewood,
Gowanda, Silver Creek, Falconer, Ashford, Franklinville, Mayville,
Clymer, North Collins, Long Point State Park, Jamestown West, SUNY
Fredonia, Frewsburg, Ashford Hollow and Chautauqua Institution.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 90 between exits 61 and 58.
Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 16.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 4244 7950 4251 7941 4251 7935 4264 7912
4249 7834 4233 7846 4200 7916 4200 7976
4227 7976 4228 7973 4231 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1358Z 284DEG 29KT 4259 7915 4250 7930 4252 7965 4232
7999
JJRThe Buffalo radar (KBUF), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:47 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were downed onto Route 62 between Abbey Hill Road and Little Road.
Minor flooding was reported on Waldorf Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 976855, 976865.