A strong low pressure system was present over the Great Lakes region to start the day on July 29th. From this extended a cold front to the southwest.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A strong low pressure system was present over the Great Lakes region to start the day on July 29th. From this extended a cold front to the southwest. As the low pressure continued eastward throughout the day, the cold front slowly shifted farther southward, before becoming elongated and slowing just north of the Ohio River. This kept much of Kentucky in the warm sector, with a strong push of warm/moist tropical air into the region. The front finally began to dip below the Ohio River as we headed into the overnight hours and transitioned to July 30th. SPC had us in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, as showers and thunderstorms formed ahead of this frontal boundary. Many of these storms lead to heavy rainfall, and resulted in multiple instances of flash flooding. High winds were also a threat, as two severe thunderstorm warnings were issued, and numerous reports of wind damage were obtained. There was even enough low level rotation in one storm to constitute a tornado warning during the early morning hours on the 30th. Thankfully there were no reports from this.
Rainfall amounts from this event are summarized below:
...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...
Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon |2 SSE Farmers 4.58 in 0700 AM 07/30 38.12N/83.53W |1 SSE Stanton 4.22 in 0800 AM 07/30 37.83N/83.85W |Koomer Ridge 4.20 in 1200 PM 07/30 37.78N/83.63W |Peeled Oak 3.84 in 1200 PM 07/30 38.07N/83.80W |0.8 NW Cannel City 3.63 in 1200 PM 07/30 37.80N/83.28W |2 E Clay City 3.52 in 0700 AM 07/30 37.86N/83.90W |2 NNW Loam 3.36 in 0800 AM 07/30 37.43N/84.14W |Owingsville 4 S 3.23 in 1200 PM 07/30 38.09N/83.76W |Waltersville 3.20 in 0700 AM 07/30 37.87N/83.93W |Somerset 7 NNE 3.12 in 1200 PM 07/30 37.18N/84.56W |1 WSW Clover Bottom 3.10 in 0800 AM 07/30 37.49N/84.17W |1 NNW Owingsville 2.95 in 0800 AM 07/30 38.14N/83.76W |Maytown 2.92 in 1200 PM 07/30 37.85N/83.47W |2 WNW Rockcastle Springs 2.76 in 0700 AM 07/30 37.02N/84.34W |Wades Mill 2.76 in 1200 PM 07/30 38.03N/84.02W |1 S Paxton 2.74 in 0700 AM 07/30 37.66N/83.41W |1 S Paxton 2.74 in 0700 AM 07/30 37.66N/83.41W |2 NNE Mount Olive 2.72 in 0900 AM 07/30 37.63N/83.72W |Buckner Branch 2.49 in 1200 PM 07/30 38.35N/83.40W |Mt Sterling 2.45 in 1200 PM 07/30 38.03N/83.97W |Peabody 2.44 in 1200 PM 07/30 37.14N/83.58W |Willailla 2.35 in 0700 AM 07/30 37.30N/84.46W |Whitley City 3 N 2.34 in 1200 PM 07/30 36.77N/84.48W |1.2 W Jackson 2.28 in 1200 PM 07/30 37.55N/83.40W |Judy 2.24 in 0700 AM 07/30 38.13N/83.96W |2.0 NE Monticello 2.22 in 1200 PM 07/30 36.87N/84.83W |0.9 NW Wendover 2.20 in 1200 PM 07/30 37.14N/83.37W |1.7 SE Ringos Mills 2.19 in 1200 PM 07/30 38.25N/83.59W |1 ENE Gates 2.16 in 0709 AM 07/30 38.24N/83.34W |McKee 5 S 2.10 in 1200 PM 07/30 37.36N/83.97W |2 ESE Grassy Lick 2.09 in 0730 AM 07/30 38.07N/83.99W |1.2 S Grassy Creek 2.01 in 1200 PM 07/30 37.85N/83.35W |Cressy 2.01 in 0800 AM 07/30 37.83N/84.04W
End of summary.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 6:50 PM EST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 750 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 750 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021 Ongoing more organized convection is currently anchored just north of the Ohio River. Most of the higher resolution model guidance suggests a slower progression into our area this evening, and this seems reasonable based on the latest satellite and mosaic radar trends. Instability has also peaked at this point across eastern Kentucky, with the latest Mesoanalysis indicating ML CAPE values ranging from around 2500 J/kg west to a more meager 1000 J/kg in our far east. Mid-level lapse rates are also modest across our area. The low levels will only stabilize as we head into nightfall, so the severe threat seems to be diminishing; however, still can't completely rule out something more organized just upstream making it into our area, mainly north of I-64. For now, have mainly delayed the higher PoPs with this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 305 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper level shortwave moving across the OH valley this afternoon, and a surface cold front along the southern Great Lakes. Warm and humid conditions this afternoon across eastern KY with temps in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Convection has started to develop over central OH well ahead of the cold front. The front will continue to drop south this afternoon and will be close to northern KY by around 00Z this evening, and then drop through the area overnight and should be south of the area by around 12Z tomorrow morning. CAMS still have a myriad of solutions for exact timing and coverage of convection this evening over eastern KY. The earliest precip would enter the I-64 corridor and points north would be around 22Z with chances increasing from north to south after 00Z this evening. While the best dynamics will be over OH/WV/PA and over to portions of the Mid Atlantic as the shortwave passes over that area this evening, there will still be ample CAPE present locally with the strong surface heating today. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the CAPE axis as it swings south this evening across the area. Some of the storms will have the potential to be strong to severe, with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats. SPC expanded the slight risk further south with the afternoon update, and now goes to the Jackson and Pikeville area, and the marginal risk runs south to roughly London and Somerset. The window for the best chance of severe wx tonight is roughly 6-11pm. While storm motions will be 15- 25 kts, if there is any training of storms over an area there could be an isolated flooding threat. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rain over the entire area until tomorrow morning. While the best chance for severe wx will be this evening, additional scattered thunderstorms will continue overnight as the cold front crosses the area from north to south. The front should be close to the KY/TN/SWVA line by around 12Z Friday. Overnight low temps will remain mild, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Depending on rain and cloud cover, some patchy river valley fog is possible early Friday morning, but there is some conditional uncertainty regarding that. The front continues to move slowly to the south away from the area on Friday, while high pressure builds in from the north. Drier air will slowly filter in from the north and as a result skies will start to clear out as the day goes on. There will still be some residual moisture/instability across far southern KY closer to the departing front during the afternoon and early evening that a few isolated showers/storms can't be ruled out, although most of the area will be dry. Cooler afternoon highs expected ranging from the low to mid 80s N to mid and upper 80s S. It will be a mostly clear start to the night with clouds moving into the area late in advance of the next disturbance approaching from the NW. More comfortable low temps Friday night ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s with some patchy fog developing towards morning. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 448 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021 A large troughing pattern will be in place across much of the eastern U.S. to start the period, and will continue to dig deeper throughout the entirety of the extended, as multiple upper level lows move through the trough. Models are in surprisingly good agreement throughout the period in the upper level pattern, which gives some better confidence in the sensible weather. To start off the period Saturday, a surface low pressure system will be passing through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley. This may result in increasing pops across the CWA by Saturday evening/night, especially across the southern half. If there is any uncertainty in the models, it's for this time frame, as the ECMWF has a large swath of precip across the entire state by Sunday evening, while the latest NAM is shunted a bit farther S, only impacting our far southern CWA, and the GFS is even farther west, keeping the CWA dry. Because of this, was not confident enough to keep the high pops across the southern half of the CWA that the NBM has. Did keep some likely pops, but very low end, and shunted farther south closer to the border. Another cold front should be dropping SE through the upper level flow and towards the state, but models have it fizzling out, along with any precip, before it makes it to the CWA Sunday evening/night. Instead, expect clearing conditions from north to south throughout the overnight. Multiple other low pressure system will traverse the base of the trough, passing south of the state. Pops related to these systems will mainly be to our south, but may spread northward into the CWA at times, mainly affecting the far S and SE portion of the CWA. Given how far out we are in the forecast by this point, kept with the NBM slight to chance pops that were given in these areas. Again, the good news about this pattern is that the strong NW to SE flow will allow cooler northerly air to advect into the region. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 70s in the north to the mid 80s in the south. Generally low 80s are then forecast for the remainder of the forecast period. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with deeper valleys expected to be the lowest temperatures any night that skies clear out. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021 VFR conditions will prevail initially as we await scattered convection moving in out ahead of an approaching cold front. Model guidance and radar trends suggest a weaker outcome across our area, so will only maintain VCTS at all TAF sites. As the front moves through, some MVFR stratus will develop between 06 and 12z from northwest to southeast. Model guidance suggests that the clouds could be in the IFR range; however, given the overall weaker trend to the convection have allowed for a more modest drop in the ceilings behind the boundary. Some MVFR fog will also be possible, depending on the convective coverage. The lower ceilings will scatter out by the mid to late morning hours, with a return to VFR conditions thereafter. West southwest winds of 5 to 8 kts will become more northwesterly behind the frontal passage by early Friday morning. Winds will then become more north northwesterly during the day. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 358 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-302300- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 358 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop early this evening through late tonight. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats, especially for locations along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Heavy rain from any of the stronger storms moving repeatedly over the same places could also result in localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday through Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed for storm and heavy rain reports tonight. CMF/JMW
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
955 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021
KYZ052-300230-
Rowan-
955 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTY...
At 954 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Head of Grassy,
or 13 miles northwest of Olive Hill, moving south at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Morehead, Haldeman, Cranston, Triplett, Gates and Waltz.
Nearly continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3839 8340 3832 8336 3832 8334 3830 8333
3821 8330 3821 8329 3819 8325 3821 8343
3838 8346 3839 8344 3840 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 356DEG 23KT 3842 8336
GEERTSONThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 76 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:20 UTC.
18 flash flood, 12 thunderstorm wind, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
A well constructed barn was destroyed by what was determined to be straight line wind damage just north of the community of Haldeman. The barn was on a knob and in an exposed location. The roof was blown off, and the sides then collapsed.
A strong wind gust blew down a tree as well as power lines onto an outbuilding near the intersection of Hwy-60 and Bradley Hollow Road near the community of Haldeman.
A tree was reported down along KY-7, near the intersection with Hwy-650/Doctor's Branch Road.
Hwy 2027 is closed near the intersection of Hwy 1010 in the community of Maytown due to water flowing over the road making it impassable.
A tree was blown down and across Highway 30 at Round Bottom. Both lanes were blocked by the tree.
A tree and several large limbs were blown down onto Airport Road leading up to the Jackson, KY National Weather Service Office.
Bluebank-Ramey School Road is closed near the 3000 block due to flash flood.
Several trees were blown down along KY-699 between mile markers 3 and 6 near Leatherwood.
Wolfe County dispatch reported a foot of water flowing over the road near the intersection of Sandfield and Stamper Branch roads in the community of Toliver.
Adams Branch road is impassable and closed due to flash flooding.
Peter Trace Road is impassable and closed due to Flash Flooding near the community of Cornwell, just west of Frenchburg.
Multiple reports were received from both social media and the public about ongoing flash flooding along KY-205 near the Breathitt/Wolfe County line.
A tree was blown down and onto KY-15 near the County Line Community Church, blocking one of the lanes.
The Menifee County Fire Chief reported that US-460 was closed due to 4 feet of water flowing over the highway near the East Slate Fork Bridge.
Menifee County Fire Chief reported that several houses along US-460, particularly around Autumn Drive and Mountain Valley Court, were surrounded by flood waters. Crews performed 2 water rescues in this area.
The city of Frenchburg was heavily hit by flash flooding, as flood waters reached into homes and businesses within the community. The Dollar General, County Garage, Headstart, and School Board office buildings were all reported flooded. The middle school and alternative school buildings experienced major flooding. In additional, ten residential houses along KY-36, which have never seen high water issues, were also flooded.
A tree was blown down and onto a house in the 6000 block of KY-451.
US-460W is closed by the Family Dollar due to flash flooding making the road impassable.
Miller Plaza Shopping Center on Hwy-36 is flooded and closed to traffic in the Owingsville community.
A water rescue occurred due to flash flooding along Hwy-60 just east of the Salt Lick community.
Several culverts have been washed out along Riddle Road ENE of Owingsville.
Water was flowing over the road in the Brookside Cottages subdivision in Stanton, and made it into the Leasing Office. The force of the water cased the pavement on the road to break apart.
A mudslide was reported across the road on KY-715 near MM 4, just west of the Gladie Visitor Center in the Red River Gorge Geological Area.
Powell County dispatch reported water up to a residence in the 5900 block of High Rock Road south of the community of Bowen. The fire department was performing a water rescue of the residents at the time of the report.
Powell County dispatch reported that all the primary streets in Stanton now have water over them.
Water was reported over the road on Cave Springs Road, washing out the pavement and at least one culvert. Water also entered into the residential garage of the cooperative observer who lives on this road.
Video on social media shows homes surrounded by water along Adams Branch Road near Frenchburg, along with vehicles submerged in the water.
A tree was blown down onto Public Road in the 5500 block near Bloss.
A tree was blown down onto Poplarville Road in the 2500 block near Mount Victory.
Multiple trees were blown down onto roads in the Redbird community.
Trees were blown down onto Hwy-90 in the vicinity of Vanover Ridge Road near the community of Parkers Lake.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 976233, 976237, 976235, 976057, 965358, 965359, 976230, 965361, 976149, 976150, 976151, 976157, 965362, 976170, 976179, 976184, 965363, 976185, 976186, 976188, 976191, 976192, 976196, 976215, 976218, 976219, 976222, 965364, 965365, 965366, 965367.