Bands of moderate to heavy rainfall set up across areas north of Interstate 90 during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday, July 29, 2021 north of a warm front and area of low pressure. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain fell which resulted in several reports of flash flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
Bands of moderate to heavy rainfall set up across areas north of Interstate 90 during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday, July 29, 2021 north of a warm front and area of low pressure. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain fell which resulted in several reports of flash flooding. In addition, a few stronger thunderstorms produced some damaging winds, downing trees and power lines. The areas hardest hit from these storms were across Saratoga and Washington counties including the towns of Argyle and Fort Edward. In this corridor, many roads were impassable or washed out from the flooding. Some roads remained closed on Friday, July 30, 2021 and beyond.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 3:27 PM EST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 427 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving through the region and are expected to continue through this evening. Tonight, showers gradually diminish as a cold front moves through the region. Behind the cold front, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected Friday with breezy conditions and high temperatures only in the 60s and 70s. Pleasant weather continues for the first half of the weekend, but chances for rain increase again on Sunday.&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 3:45 PM EDT, showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder continue across the region. So far, the axis of heaviest rain has been from the Mohawk Valley and the southern Adirondacks into southern Vermont where around 0.5-0.75" of rain has fallen per NYS mesonet obs and dual pol radar estimates. There is a surface warm front located well to our south per WPC surface analysis, but the mid-level warm front has made it to around I-90. An area of heavier showers and a few rumbles of thunder located over the Western Adirondacks is being driven by a shortwave over Western NY. This area of showers is expected to ride along the mid-level warm front over the next several hours. The approaching mid-level shortwave and isentropic lift/warm air advection should lead to rainfall amounts of another half inch or so for areas mainly north of I-90 over the next several hours, with heavier amounts possible in thunderstorms and where cells train over the same area. Flash flood guidance is around 1.5" per hour and 2" in 3 hours for these areas. While current rainfall rates are maxing our at around 0.5" per hour, we will continue to monitor the threat for flash flooding over the next several hours, especially for areas that have already seen heavier rain through the day today. WPC has placed our region in a slight risk for excessive rainfall, so while not expected to be widespread, an isolated flash flood event is possible especially considering that soils are anomalously moist due to the anomalously wet conditions over the past few weeks. While the flash flood threat is the primary threat this afternoon and evening, SPC does have areas south of I-90 in a marginal risk for sever weather. It should be emphasized, however, that this threat is a secondary threat behind flash flooding. With abundant cloud cover and showers over the past several hours, instability is generally lacking for most of our CWA, with only ~500J/kg of CAPE for parts of the Mid-Hudson Valley, so any severe weather that does develop will be of the high shear/low CAPE variety. SPC mesoanalysis shows 40-50 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear and 20 kts of 0-1 km shear across the southern half of our area. Isolated damaging winds look to be the primary severe threat, although the SPC does have a 2% tornado probability south of I-90 likely due to backed low-level winds and low LCLs. However, have not seen much rotation with cells that have developed in our CWA so far this afternoon. Current thinking is that severe threat in general looks pretty limited for our area, with the primary focus being heavy rainfall. Flash flood/heavy rain threat continues this evening, but as we head through the evening and into the overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms should gradually end from west to east between 2-6z as drier mid-level air works into the region and a cold front pushes into the region towards morning. This will result in advection of cooler and drier air into the region. A tightening pressure gradient will cause winds to become breezy out of the northwest in the wake of the frontal passage. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday, much nicer weather is expected in the wake of the cold frontal passage. We will be located between high pressure to the west and departing low pressure to the east. Therefore, there will be a tight pressure gradient over our region, which will lead to breezy northwest winds that will advect cooler and much drier air into the region. Despite deep mixing to at least 850 mb, high temperatures are only expected to be in the 60s for the southern Adirondacks to mid 80s in the Hudson Valley as 850 mb temps will only be around 4-6C. We will be under a cold pool/troughing aloft, so an isolated pop-up shower is possible during the afternoon. However, with dewpoints decreasing into the low 50s and a mid-level subsidence inversion seen on BUFKIT forecast soundings, any showers that do develop will be few and far between. Friday night looks mainly clear with cool temperatures dropping into the 40s in the high terrain to low 50s in the valleys. High pressure will remain to the west, and while the pressure gradient weakens slightly, it will still be strong enough to maintain light winds through the night. This should promote some boundary layer mixing, so therefore went a degree or 2 above NBM guidance for overnight lows despite continued cold air advection. Saturday morning will feel more like early September than early August with the cool temperatures and low dewpoints. However, with mainly clear skies, temperatures should climb quickly through the morning and eventually top out in the upper 60s in the southern Adirondacks to upper 70s in the Mid Hudson valley. High pressure will remain to our west, so while the pressure gradient will be weaker than Friday, there will still be a nice breeze for much of the day. Some more clouds will also be possible in the afternoon in advance of our next weather system. Saturday night, an upper-level trough begins to dig south from Canada towards the Great lakes. Surface low pressure should develop in response by late Saturday night. High pressure will slide to our south and east, which will allow for advection of warmer, more moist air into the region as well, which should keep low temperatures warmer than the previous night (a few upper 40s with widespread mid 50s for overnight lows), although the degree of cooling will depend on how quickly clouds overspread the region. There will also be an increasing chance for showers towards morning, especially for our northern and western areas which will be closer to the upper-level forcing at this time. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Guidance shows the region remaining under a trough through the period. There is good agreement a potent short wave will be on the approach Sunday and it's expected to move across the region Sunday night. Its associated surface low pressure system is expected to move across the region sweeping a cold front through. Expecting widespread chances for showers along with chances for thunderstorms and cooler than normal temperatures. Precipitable water values are expected to remain below 1 1/2 inches. surface high pressure builds across the area on Monday with mainly fair weather expected. It will be unseasonably cool with highs in the 70s below 1500 feet and in the 60s above that; more similar to mid-September. As we progress through the week confidence in the forecast lowers as guidance differs handling individual short waves. The GFS indicates an upper level low develops over the Midwest by mid-week while the ECMWF remains open and progressive. It appears we should have mainly fair weather through Tuesday night with chances for storms possibly returning Wednesday along with temperatures possibly moderating towards normal for early August. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved into eastern NY and western New England. Only KGFL has seen MVFR from rain shower. Activity will generally be scattered this afternoon, but KGFL could see a few hours of steady rainfall. There is the potential for a brief t-storm lowering visibility to IFR range, so will include this in a TEMPO for all sites. Otherwise, it will generally be VFR outside of the precip with southerly winds of 5 to 10 kts. Flying conditions look to lower down to MVFR/IFR for this evening for all sites with light southerly winds with more showers will be moving in for overnight. MVFR/IFR visibility will be possible with these showers as well with lingering low clouds and some fog through daybreak Friday. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and thunderstorms currently moving through the region will continue through the evening hours and begin to taper off around midnight. Total rainfall amounts look to be around a quarter to half an inch, with higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon will be around 60 to 80 percent, increasing to around 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Friday will be between 50 to 60 percent and will recover to around 75-85% Friday night. Southerly winds this afternoon at around 5-10 mph could gust to around 15-20 mph. After midnight, winds begin to shift to the northwest behind a cold frontal passage. On Friday winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph with some gusts of 20-30 mph possible. Winds decrease to around 50-0 mph Friday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers and thunderstorms currently moving through the region have dropped anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to three quarters of an inch of rain across the region as of 3:45 PM. An additional quarter to half inch of rain will be possible over through tonight, with locally higher amounts possible in thunderstorms and where storms train over the same area. Where locally heavy rain occurs, some minor flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas is possible. Scattered flash flooding is also possible, as 30-day rainfall estimates indicate 150-400 percent of normal precip across the region with multiple rounds of showers and storm with downpours. Many area rivers will experience a rise in water levels tonight into Friday morning as a result of the rain, but river flooding is not expected at this time, with most areas remaining below action stage. Dry weather returns for Friday, with breezy and cooler conditions. It should remain dry through Saturday, with increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms by Sunday as a strong disturbance moves across the region. Additional rainfall will likely occur in parts of the area, which could result in some hydro issues. Stay tuned for further updates. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && SYNOPSIS...Main NEAR TERM...Main SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...Main/JPV HYDROLOGY...Main/JPV
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 450 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-082>084-VTZ013>015- 301100- Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton- Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga- Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene- Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren- Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- 450 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Berkshires in Massachusetts, southern Vermont, and Eastern New York excluding Ulster and Dutchess Counties. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are expected this evening into early tonight. There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across most of the region, resulting in potential for scattered flash flooding and minor flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas. Areas that receive repeated thunderstorms will be most susceptible to flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-301100- Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Ulster- Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess- 450 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and Ulster and Dutchess Counties in New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are expected this evening into early tonight. There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across most of the region, resulting in potential for scattered flash flooding and minor flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying areas. Areas that receive repeated thunderstorms will be most susceptible to flash flooding. There is also a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. The main threat is isolated damaging winds gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Albany radar (KENX), 105 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:29 UTC.
24 flash flood, 9 flood, 7 thunderstorm wind, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
A portion of East Starbuck Lane was washed away due to flash flooding in the Town of Fort Ann.
Yards and roads flooded in the Town of Wilton, all runoff.
Flooding was observed in several places across northern Saratoga County. A mudslide was reported in the Town of Moreau.
Trees were downed near Craw Lane near the Town of Wilton, one of which fell on a house.
A few trees were downed in the City of Saratoga Springs.
Water was observed over the roadway on Drifting Ridge Road and Tori Trace in the Town of Fort Edward.
Basement flooding was observed along Lick Springs Road near the Town of Argyle.
The Dollar General store was flooded in the Village of Argyle.
U.S. Route 4 was impassable at Black House Road in the Town of Fort Edward due to flash flooding.
A portion of Spier Falls Road in the Town of Moreau was washed out due to flash flooding.
A woman was rescued by kayak from her flooded home on Northern Pines Road in the Town of Wilton after the adjacent creek overflowed.
A few trees were downed in Halfmoon Township.
Water covered a portion of Cary Road in the Town of Fort Edward.
U.S. Route 4 and Lock Road in the Town of Fort Edward was impassable due to flash flooding. The inside of Turning Point Wesleyan Church on U.S. Route 4 was also flooded.
Portions of O'Brien Road and Anthony Road in the Town of Fort Edward were washed out due to flash flooding.
Blodgett Road in the Town of Fort Edward was impassable due to flash flooding.
Woodard Road in the Town of Fort Edward was closed due to flash flooding.
Hunter Road between Williams Road and Moore Road in the Town of Fort Edward was washed out due to flash flooding.
Basement flooding occurred along Fort Miller Road in the Town of Fort Edward.
A tree was downed on Route 48 near the Village of Argyle.
Basement flooding was observed along East Street in the Village of Argyle.
A portion of State Route 40 in the Village of Argyle was impassable due to a tree and rock slide.
Water covered the road along a portion of County Route 49 in the Town of Argyle.
County Farm Road was washed out in the Town of Argyle due to flash flooding.
A culvert was plugged and caused flooding into a well on East Lake Road in the Town of Argyle.
Moore Road was closed in the Town of Argyle due to flash flooding.
There were numerous areas of several inches of standing water and water rushing over the road from other roads along New York routes 29 and 40.
County Route 113 near Post Office Lane in the Town of Easton was impassable due to flash flooding.
Water was over the roadway near the intersection of County routes 48 and 49 in the Town of Greenwich.
Three feet of standing water was observed on New York Route 32 just north of U.S. Route 4 near the Town of Northumberland.
A driveway was washed out in the Village of Argyle.
A tree was downed on Ashgrove Road near Hill Lane near the Town of Cambridge.
A tree was downed on wires in the Village of Hoosick Falls.
Water was over State Route 313 between County Route 61 and Hickory Hill Road in the Town of Salem.
A water rescue occurred in the Town of Wilton due to a car stuck in flood waters. The intersection of Ballard Road and U.S. Route 9 was closed due to flooding.
The intersection of Fortsville Road and Clark Road was impassable due to flash flooding.
A culvert collapse occurred on U.S. Route 4 in the Town of Fort Edward.
Blodgett Road in the Town of Fort Edward remained closed due to flash flooding.
The southern end of Woodard Road in the Town of Fort Edward remained closed due to flooding.
Moore Road remained closed in the Town of Argyle due to flooding.
Route 295 was closed between Routes 22 and 5 due to a downed tree and wires in the Town of Canaan.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 973165, 973164, 974127, 972755, 972748, 973171, 974067, 974071, 973172, 974438, 974442, 972750, 974038, 974039, 974040, 974045, 974053, 974060, 974064, 972752, 974072, 974073, 974075, 974076, 974077, 974079, 974082, 974122, 974126, 974422, 974081, 972753, 972751, 974128, 974431, 974433, 974052, 974048, 974054, 974080, and more.