Westerly upper level flow, ahead of an upper low over the Northern Sierra Nevada Mountains, combined with east to southeast surface flow provided just enough shear and instability for isolated thunderstorms to develop with gusty outflow winds.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Westerly upper level flow, ahead of an upper low over the Northern Sierra Nevada Mountains, combined with east to southeast surface flow provided just enough shear and instability for isolated thunderstorms to develop with gusty outflow winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 1:29 PM MST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 229 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air will push in from the west and reduce the chances for showers and thunderstorms, with sunny skies prevailing Sunday. The next low pressure system will slowly progress across Arizona and New Mexico into midweek, with a few thunderstorms possible over the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. It will be dry elsewhere, and dry all areas late week into the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will lower into the mid 80s in the lowlands Monday and Tuesday, but otherwise near 90 to lower 90s the rest of the period. Expect westerly breezes every afternoon and early evening. && 01 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday. West to southwest winds have moved to about the Rio Grande so far this afternoon and will continue to push east of the area by early evening. Drier, more stable air is moving in with this southwest flow. May see a few storms linger over the far east before 8PM, but generally think most of the activity will be out of the CWA. An upper low moving SSE through CA toward the KLAS area by late Sunday is responsible for this increasing southwest flow. It will help to keep a surface low centered over NM and a decent gradient over the area. Even overnight most areas will likely keep winds going in the 5-15mph range, but it could get gusty for several hours centered around 06Z on the east slopes of area mountains including El Paso. Expect overnight lows to be similar to last night, maybe a little cooler due to drier air in place and clear skies. For Sunday, winds will pick back up to around 15-25 mph and temperatures will warm up into the mid 80s to lower 90s for the lowlands. The upper low over CA will not be tapping any kind of moisture from the south, so expect sunny skies. && 26 .LONG TERM... An upper low will take its time traveling across mainly northern AZ and northern NM the next few days. This will result in a surface low developing in northeastern NM and thus drier westerly surface winds. Some cooling will also take place as the upper low passes by Monday and Tuesday, but temps will still be warm. Meanwhile, as the upper low moves into northern NM it will be present long enough to wrap around some mid level moisture into our area from the north. Thus a few thunderstorms are in the forecast for the Gila Region and Sacs Tuesday and Wednesday. We will be affected by the bottom of the westerlies, with short waves passing to our north late week into the weekend. Dry weather with breezy west winds should prevail during that time, keeping an active dryline along and east of our eastern CWA border. That will have to be watched, though. After Tuesday, lowland max temps will be near or slightly above normal. && 01 .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250 to start period with drier and moving in from the west through the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered 3-5SM VRB25G40KT -TSRA BKN060-080 mainly along and east of the Rio Grande through 00Z. After 00Z, skies becoming SKC. Winds generally west to southwest at 10-15G25KTS then decreasing to AOB 12KTS after 04Z, except on east slopes of area mountains including KELP where after an evening lull, winds are expected to increase to around 15-25G35KTS from about 04Z-10Z. && 26 .FIRE WEATHER... Dry southwest flow will prevail over the area for the next couple of days. West to southwest winds will approach critical speeds, but looks like they will generally remain a little below. Minimum relative humidities will be falling into the single digits though through Monday with just a slight increase into the lower to mid teens for Tuesday along with temperatures about 5 degrees cooler and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures rebound back toward 90 by Wednesday with continued dry conditions. Vent rates will generally be very good to excellent. && 26 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 67 91 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 62 85 56 83 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 57 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 86 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 66 43 60 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 53 79 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 53 87 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 52 86 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 90 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 90 55 86 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 63 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 60 85 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 64 92 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 88 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 88 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 87 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 59 89 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 59 89 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 60 88 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 77 47 73 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 45 76 47 72 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 44 74 43 70 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 42 81 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 54 85 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 86 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 77 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 48 81 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 47 83 40 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 42 81 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 51 82 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 51 85 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 52 86 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 52 85 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 51 81 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 26-Grzywacz/01-Fausett
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 500 AM MDT Sat May 15 2021 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-161100- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 500 AM MDT Sat May 15 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Southwesterly flow will return to the Borderland today gradually ushering drier air back into the area. Most of the moisture will be pushed off to the east through the day, but there could be enough lingering by mid-day into the early afternoon hours to spark off isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the Gila region and Sacramento Mountains. Some activity could propogate into the lowlands of Sierra, Otero, and Hudspeth Counties during the afternoon. Small hail and gusty winds will be possible in the stronger cells. Outflows could create areas of blowing dust and reduced visibilities. Activity is expected to dissipate after sunset. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday West to southwesterly winds will become breezy each afternoon Sunday through Tuesday. With drier air returning, the combination with gusty winds could create periods of isolated elevated fire weather conditions. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed, though any reports of hail or significant precipitation are appreciated. Pegram
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:47 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Pony mesonet station on White Sands Missile Range reported a peak gust of 63 mph. Likely produced from a dry microburst.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 959817.