Surface southeasterly flow continued over eastern New Mexico which trended moisture upward across the area. With another day of warming temperatures and an unstable atmosphere, strong to severe thunderstorms once again impacted the eastern plains of New Mexico on May 15, 2021.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Surface southeasterly flow continued over eastern New Mexico which trended moisture upward across the area. With another day of warming temperatures and an unstable atmosphere, strong to severe thunderstorms once again impacted the eastern plains of New Mexico on May 15, 2021. By early afternoon, thunderstorms developed along the northern and southern high terrain of New Mexico. As they tracked eastward onto lower elevations, they moved into a more unstable and sheared environment where they quickly intensified. The most significant damage occurred in Portales where hail up to the size of half dollars was reported. Additionally, the general slow movement of these thunderstorms near the New Mexico and Texas state line resulted in heavy rainfall and flash flooding in Portales. A water rescue was conducted for a family who attempted to drive through the flooded roadways.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 2:02 PM MST, 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 302 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening across the Land of Enchantment. Some storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail across far eastern New Mexico. Drier southwest winds will spread across much of the state on Sunday, but a few strong to severe storms will remain possible across far northeast areas. Severe weather potential will continue for portions of eastern New Mexico each afternoon next week. Due to the elevated storm chances and cloud cover, high temperatures for the next week will mainly be near or below normal. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... A storm over north central CA will drift southeast into western AZ Sunday and central AZ Sunday night. At the surface, low level drying is occurring in western and central NM as dewpoints have lowered into the 20s. Across the eastern plains dewpoints are in the 40s. This will be the focus for thunderstorms the rest of this afternoon into early tonight. In fact, isolated severe thunderstorms are a possibility along the far eastern plains near the TX border. From the Continental to the RGV a few dry storms are likely with strong wind gusts to 50 mph. Things will quiet down tonight with above normal lows. Low clouds and patchy fog may grip the eastern plains overnight, while a wind shift will hug the far northeast plains. A weak ridge of high pressure will settle over NM Sunday with overall drier conditions. Enough moisture may still exist in the east for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The above mentioned wind shift will still be in the northeast and could be the focus for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Highs Sunday will be near to a little above normal just about everywhere. LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... A Pacific low will shift eastward across northern New Mexico late Monday through Tuesday. On Monday, a boundary will be draped across northeast/east central New Mexico from the previous days convection near the CO border. Low level upslope onto the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will allow convection to develop by late morning, before shifting eastward through the afternoon. 30-40kts of bulk shear and steep mid level lapse rates yielding 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE will allow for some organized severe storms, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. As the low translates eastward on Tuesday, shear values will decrease, but the boundary from the previous day will have inevitably pushed farther to the south and west. Therefore, storms should again initiate on the Central Mountain Chain, though this time extending southward to the Sacramento Mtns. Slower storm motions will be in store, but should generally shift toward the southeast. Storms may not be as organized as Monday, but should still have strong lapse rates beneath the low, thus a few strong to perhaps severe storms are possible. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible west of the Central Mountain Chain on Tuesday as well, but would be aided by the boundary if it pushed through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Monday night and replenished some low level moisture. A shortwave ridge will cross NM on Wednesday, though there will be plenty of moisture around for additional showers and thunderstorms. Though thunderstorms will be possible nearly anywhere, if a boundary exists across northeast NM from the previous days convection, it will be a focus for any stronger storms. The GFS is the outlier on Thursday. It quickly swings across a potent shortwave trough across NM, which in turn, results in widespread thunderstorms. Since other operational and ensemble models do not show this feature, the GFS was largely discounted. Thus, while there may be isolated to scattered storms, they should not be as widespread as what the GFS suggests. As the next upstream Pacific low moves over the Great Basin on Friday, southwesterly flow will increase over NM and drier air aloft should push into western NM. Meanwhile, the dryline across eastern NM will sharpen. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon and evening. CHJ/34 && .FIRE WEATHER... A slow moving storm is over north central CA this afternoon and it will drift southeast tonight and Sunday, with the center near Las Vegas Sunday evening. It will crawl across northern AZ Sunday night and reach the Four Corners region Monday. Additional energy rotating around the upper low will stall the system over NM Tuesday, then will finally move east of the state Wednesday. Expect an increase in lightning activity through this evening, with wetting storms across eastern New Mexico and drier storms along/west of the RGV. A wind shift in the northeast will stall there tonight and Sunday. Most places will dry out Sunday except the northeast. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible for an hour or two over western NM. Monday and Tuesday will be increasingly more moist with thunderstorm coverage increasing each day. Even though a weak ridge of high pressure will be over NM Wednesday, residual moisture will keep the atmosphere pretty active. A disturbance crossing Thursday will also prolong our shower and thunderstorm chances. Some drying is possible late next week into the weekend. CHJ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours, except for potential short- lived MVFR conditions in thunderstorms and blowing dust this afternoon/evening. Strong/erratic wind gusts will once again be the primary threat associated with storms, with central and eastern terminals more likely to be impacted than KGUP and KFMN. Areas of MVFR cigs may develop early Sunday morning at/near KLVS, KTCC and KROW, but forecast confidence too low to include in TAFs at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 48 82 46 75 / 10 5 0 10 Dulce........................... 40 79 37 72 / 10 5 0 30 Cuba............................ 44 77 42 70 / 10 5 0 20 Gallup.......................... 39 79 36 71 / 10 5 0 10 El Morro........................ 39 76 37 67 / 10 5 0 20 Grants.......................... 38 81 37 71 / 20 5 0 20 Quemado......................... 41 77 38 68 / 5 5 0 20 Magdalena....................... 48 80 45 72 / 10 5 0 10 Datil........................... 44 76 41 68 / 5 5 0 20 Reserve......................... 38 81 34 74 / 0 5 0 20 Glenwood........................ 51 83 48 77 / 0 5 0 10 Chama........................... 37 72 33 65 / 10 10 10 50 Los Alamos...................... 49 76 48 67 / 20 5 5 30 Pecos........................... 47 77 46 67 / 30 10 10 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 71 44 61 / 20 30 20 70 Red River....................... 38 68 36 55 / 20 30 30 80 Angel Fire...................... 33 68 31 58 / 30 30 20 70 Taos............................ 42 77 39 65 / 20 20 10 50 Mora............................ 40 74 40 62 / 30 20 10 60 Espanola........................ 52 83 49 74 / 20 5 5 30 Santa Fe........................ 50 77 48 69 / 20 5 5 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 46 81 46 72 / 20 5 5 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 83 54 75 / 10 5 0 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 55 84 53 76 / 10 5 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 86 52 79 / 10 5 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 55 84 52 77 / 10 5 0 20 Belen........................... 50 86 48 79 / 20 5 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 53 87 51 78 / 10 5 0 20 Bosque Farms.................... 52 86 48 79 / 10 5 0 10 Corrales........................ 55 87 52 79 / 10 5 0 20 Los Lunas....................... 52 86 50 79 / 10 5 0 10 Placitas........................ 54 81 53 74 / 10 5 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 55 85 52 77 / 10 5 0 10 Socorro......................... 52 88 50 81 / 10 5 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 74 50 69 / 20 5 0 20 Tijeras......................... 49 79 49 73 / 20 5 0 20 Edgewood........................ 45 80 45 71 / 20 5 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 43 82 42 73 / 20 5 0 20 Clines Corners.................. 43 77 44 67 / 20 5 0 30 Mountainair..................... 45 78 45 72 / 10 5 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 46 77 45 72 / 10 5 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 53 82 52 77 / 10 5 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 49 75 48 72 / 10 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 43 71 42 64 / 40 60 40 80 Raton........................... 44 76 43 64 / 20 50 30 80 Springer........................ 45 77 43 66 / 20 40 20 80 Las Vegas....................... 43 77 44 65 / 30 20 10 60 Clayton......................... 50 79 49 68 / 60 50 40 70 Roy............................. 49 78 46 67 / 40 40 20 60 Conchas......................... 55 85 52 74 / 30 20 10 50 Santa Rosa...................... 52 83 50 74 / 30 5 5 30 Tucumcari....................... 55 86 53 78 / 40 20 10 40 Clovis.......................... 54 84 51 81 / 40 20 5 20 Portales........................ 55 87 51 84 / 40 20 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 55 87 52 83 / 30 5 0 20 Roswell......................... 57 92 54 88 / 20 5 0 5 Picacho......................... 51 86 51 80 / 10 5 0 0 Elk............................. 49 82 50 77 / 10 5 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 305 AM MDT Sat May 15 2021 NMZ201>241-161130- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 305 AM MDT Sat May 15 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will return to northeast and far eastern New Mexico this afternoon. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Severe thunderstorm chances persist across northeast New Mexico Sunday through Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. 33
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
922 AM MDT SAT MAY 15 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S LOGAN 35.35N 103.41W
05/14/2021 M60 MPH QUAY NM MESONET
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABQ202102231
12Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1247 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021 NMZ226-239-151915- Eastern Lincoln County-South Central Mountains- 1247 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM MDT... At 1247 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Arabela, or 27 miles northeast of Ruidoso, moving northeast at 15 mph. Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Arabela. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3342 10526 3356 10537 3371 10516 3358 10496 TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 231DEG 12KT 3352 10526 Shoemake
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1251 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021 NMZ238>240-151915- Eastern Lincoln County-Chaves County Plains-Southwest Chaves County- 1251 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM MDT... At 1250 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15 miles southeast of Tinnie, or 32 miles northwest of Hope, moving northeast at 5 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Lincoln and west central Chaves Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3307 10508 3318 10520 3336 10503 3320 10484 TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 218DEG 5KT 3319 10507 Shoemake
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
301 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021
NMZ238-152130-
Chaves County Plains-
301 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...
At 300 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southwest of Roswell, moving north at 15 mph.
Dime size hail and wind gusts of 55 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Southern Roswell and Roswell Correctional Facility.
This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 98 and 99.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Blowing dust associated with strong thunderstorm winds can reduce
visibilities below one mile at times.
&&
LAT...LON 3302 10486 3335 10478 3327 10445 3296 10458
3296 10464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 191DEG 15KT 3314 10469
ShoemakeThe Pueblo radar (KPUX), 187 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:11 UTC.
5 hail, 1 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm produced large amounts of hail at least one inch in diameter. A commuter traveling along U.S. Highway 64 west of Capulin reported that at least three inches of hail accumulation was covering the road.
A trained spotter in Portales measured 1.25 inch hail from a severe thunderstorm.
A CoCoRaHS observer reported penny size hail from a strong thunderstorm east-southeast of Tucumcari.
A trained spotter reported penny size hail from a strong thunderstorm in Portales.
Several trained spotters in Portales reported hail ranging from the size of quarters to the size of golf balls from a slow-moving severe thunderstorm. Hail accumulations of one to two inches in the area resulted in the collapse of a patio roof at one residence in Portales. Damages are estimated for the destruction of the roof.
Slow-moving thunderstorms in the Portales area produced three to four inches of rainfall in a short period of time. This led to flash flooding in the area where a trained spotter reported some roadways were under 2 feet of water. The Portales Fire Department had to perform a water rescue for a family of three which included two children after their car was swept into a drainage ditch. The family was traveling along 18th Street when their car was swept by the flooded waters and pushed into a culvert headed south along S Globe Street. Their car eventually came to a stop against a pipe that was across the culvert. The family was rescued about 45 minutes after the first 911 call, and no injuries were reported. Damages are estimated for the loss of the car as well as rough estimates for water damages to an unknown amount of structures.
An ASOS station in Tucumcari recorded a 59 mph wind gust from a severe thunderstorm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 949519, 949520, 949521, 949522, 949523, 949529, 949534.