Southwest flow aloft that had been persistent over the previous days over New Mexico became westerly which resulted in a downtrend in moisture values on June 25, 2021. Less storm coverage was present over northern and central New Mexico as a result, however, return flow and an unstable atmosphere still allowed for isolated thunderstorms across far eastern New Mexico.
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The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Southwest flow aloft that had been persistent over the previous days over New Mexico became westerly which resulted in a downtrend in moisture values on June 25, 2021. Less storm coverage was present over northern and central New Mexico as a result, however, return flow and an unstable atmosphere still allowed for isolated thunderstorms across far eastern New Mexico. With weak wind shear, these winds were generally sub-severe, but one storm in Curry County produced a strong outflow boundary that resulted in a 62 mph wind gust briefly measured in Tucumcari.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 4:29 PM MST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 529 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Bouts of erratic gusty winds with gusts of 25-35kts from virga over western and central NM will continue for the next 2-3 hrs. Meanwhile, a northerly wind shift from convective outflow over far southeastern CO has already pushed through KCAO and will expand through the eastern plains through the night bringing a switch to prevailing northeasterly winds in its wake. IFR/MVFR cigs also look to follow in its wake, at least through the northeastern quadrant of NM to include KTCC, with lesser confidence for KLVS. This boundary is also likely to bring a brief easterly wind to KABQ as it squeaks through the gaps of the Sandia/Manzano Mtns early Saturday morning. Otherwise, the main concern will be scattered-numerous showers and storms moving eastward off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Saturday afternoon. Some of these storms are expected to become strong to severe producing damaging winds and severe hail. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe storms are possible through the early evening hours across northeastern New Mexico and the eastern plains. The main hazards being strong winds, hail, and lightning. A backdoor cold front will continue to make progress into eastern New Mexico tonight. Strong to severe storms are also a possibility on Saturday. An east canyon wind through the middle Rio Grande Valley will be possible through Monday night, ushering in cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday. The focus then shifts towards daily rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon next week beginning Sunday and kicking off a potential early onset of the monsoon. These storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... Westerly flow aloft has allowed for drier air to filter into the area which has resulted in a relative downtrend in storm coverage this afternoon. But a weak disturbance aloft clipping northern NM has still resulted in isolated to scattered convection to form over the northern mountains, and activity is moving in a northeasterly direction. The latest mesoanalysis indicates a ribbon of higher instability around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE hugging the NM/TX border with 0-6km bulk shear around 40 knots. This will be the area to watch through early evening for the potential of strong to severe storms. Most of the activity should push off into the TX and OK Panhandles by 02Z with the severe weather threat also diminishing with it. All eyes then turn towards our backdoor cold front which is still on track to move into eastern NM tonight. This front should be nosing into Union and Colfax counties around 00Z, approaching KTCC by 06Z, and then down into KROW by 12Z. The front will likely set up along the central mountain chain Saturday, but likely won't make much more progress westward with stronger westerly winds aloft. Behind the front, a low stratus deck will form tonight across the northeastern plains down to I-40 and along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos, but that will burn away by mid-morning. Low-level moisture will increase significantly behind the backdoor cold front, and storm coverage will increase as well. The most widespread activity will favor areas along and east of the central mountain with isolated activity possible across the western high terrain and middle to lower RGV. The potential for strong to severe storms looks to increase tomorrow with the latest guidance indicating CAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg and bulk shear increasing to about 50 knots across the east. With increasing moisture, instability, and shear, this will provide a more favorable environment for severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats. The latest SPC Day 2 Outlook outlines much of eastern NM in a marginal risk with a slight risk painted for counties near the TX border, and this coincides well with the primary areas of concern. Outflow from the day's convection will help send the backdoor cold front and moisture farther west towards the Continental Divide Saturday night. This will likely result in an gusty east canyon wind in ABQ through early Sunday morning, but will help set the stage for the active pattern continuing Sunday and into next week. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... As the backdoor front continues to make progress westward Saturday night and Sunday, an east canyon wind with gusts in the 40-50 mph range will be possible in the middle Rio Grande Valley through Monday night. This front will also usher in higher humidities and cooler temperatures on Sunday than Saturday's readings, with highs dropping 10-20 degrees below climo. An upper- level trough will stretch southwest to northeast through the state on Sunday. The focus shifts from strong to severe storms on Saturday to a potential early onset of the North American Monsoon and flooding concerns, particularly for recent burn scar areas. Areas east of the central mountain chain will be favored for wetting precipitation, with southeastern New Mexico forecast to have PWAT's over 1" (near the daily max) and QPF totals between 1-3" from Saturday-Monday. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible through the week, with local flooding concerns returning Monday. But, there are some model differences at this point beginning Monday night, with the 12z GFS forming a closed low across southern New Mexico that retrogrades through the week. Thus, there was some uncertainty with where precipitation will focus, as well as forecast highs across the east on Monday. Regardless, the 6-13 C 700 mb temperatures will feel quite different compared to the 20 C over the past week due to low- level moisture and cloud cover. The flow will veer and become more southerly by mid- week, but the precipitation will stick around. By Thursday evening, the trough will send another backdoor front through the eastern plains. This could provide more low-level moisture to work with across the eastern plains, with the potential for strong to even severe storms. Temperatures remain several degrees below normal through the end of the next work week. 15/31 && .FIRE WEATHER... There are no critical fire weather concerns over the next week as a wet and unseasonably cooler pattern is set to take shape starting this weekend. Moisture will increase significantly behind a backdoor cold front that will move through eastern NM tonight and then towards the AZ border Saturday night. This will result in daily rounds of numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing through at least the next week. With easterly to southeasterly surface and transport winds continuing and no feature to scour out the moisture, wetting precipitation will be possible areawide. Ventilation rates will generally be a mixed bag of poor to good across the area. 15 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 834 AM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 NMZ201>241-261100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 834 AM MDT Fri Jun 25 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening across far eastern NM where strong winds, hail, and frequent lightning are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Precipitation chances increase for areas along and east of the central mountain chain on Saturday and then will become more widespread across the entire area Sunday through next week. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, especially on Saturday across eastern NM where strong winds and hail will be the primary hazards. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well, particularly across the east, where amounts near 2 inches will be possible. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older burn scars. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather and flash flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx. 15
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:10 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An ASOS station in Tucumcari measured a 62 mph wind gust associated with outflow from thunderstorms south in Curry County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 956671.