A disturbance crossing New Mexico on July 14, 2021, brought ample moisture, instability, and lift to allow for an uptick in storm coverage across northern and central New Mexico. Widespread showers and thunderstorms developed by the afternoon hours, and with a very active start to the monsoon season and daily rounds of heavy rain, soils were primed for additional flash flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A disturbance crossing New Mexico on July 14, 2021, brought ample moisture, instability, and lift to allow for an uptick in storm coverage across northern and central New Mexico. Widespread showers and thunderstorms developed by the afternoon hours, and with a very active start to the monsoon season and daily rounds of heavy rain, soils were primed for additional flash flooding. Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain particularly impacted Jaconita and Pojoaque in Santa Fe County where flooding and mud flow forced the closures of several roads. A truck became stuck in the flood waters near Jaconita, but fortunately, no injuries occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 10:37 AM MST, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Showers and storms will increase in coverage significantly this afternoon and continue through the evening hours, favoring impacts to western and central terminals. MVFR conditions are expected with showers and storms today, with short-lived IFR conditions possible. Mountain obscurations will increase through the day and become more widespread by the evening hours. Patches of fog and/or low stratus are possible early Thursday morning, but forecast confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorm coverage will ramp up across much of the area today through Thursday as a weak disturbance aloft interacts with an ample supply of moisture. Thunderstorms will be most numerous during the afternoon through early nighttime hours when locally heavy rainfall along with brief bursts of hail, strong wind and frequent cloud to ground lightning can be expected. Localized flash flooding will be of particular concern over and below recent burn scars as well as areas that have received substantial rainfall the past week. Storm motions will generally be toward the east or southeast through Thursday before they become more erratic and nearly stationary this weekend. Overall, an active pattern will remain into early next week. High temperatures will be near to slightly below normal through much of this week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... A subtle shortwave trough entered northern NM last evening with convection accompanying, and while much of this shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished there are a few cells trying to initiate in the northeastern plains early this morning. This wave brought increased moisture with PWATs now trending up into the 90 to 95th percentile in northwestern zones of NM, and the ample moisture and recent bouts of rainfall over the past few days are setting the stage for concerns of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding today as a more distinct and substantial shortwave trough approaches northern NM. This wave is bringing sufficient large scale ascent and high expectations of numerous showers and storms over much of the northwestern half of the forecast area with increasing theta-E. Storm motions will actually increase today in response to slightly stronger mid level flow associated with the shortwave, however the sheer number of convective cells, the deep moisture arriving and the antecedent conditions are enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch. Temperatures will undergo several degrees of cooling (dropping slightly below average) in the northwestern half of the forecast area today with the eastern plains hovering closer to normal. Also of note, an unseasonably strong lee side surface trough will prompt stiff southerly breezes in the plains today. The shortwave will make its way east of CO/NM late tonight into early Thursday with convection likely persisting well into the early morning hours before dissipating. By Thursday afternoon, northwesterly flow aloft will be found over NM in the wake of the departing wave, and a speed max aloft will still be lingering in CO and near the NM border. Some drier air will seep into northwestern to north central NM where PWATs will fall back closer to normal, but most of the remainder of the forecast area will retain higher values of 1 to 1.25 inches. As surface high pressure rebuilds east of NM, an easterly or southeasterly surface winds will prevail in many zones, setting up increased vertical shear profiles. Confidence is low to moderate for the potential for strong to severe cells Thursday, but it will be a possibility with an otherwise active day as scattered to numerous storms initiate off of the high terrain and drift south or southeastward. Temperatures should gain a few degrees in northwestern to north central areas Thursday afternoon due to the drier air there. LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... Enhanced NW flow aloft in wake of the departing shortwave trough and low-level SELY flow will likely promote/sustain a decent crop of organized deep moist convection across the NE/EC plains Thursday evening to include the possibility of a rotating updraft or two. Elsewhere, the HREF also targets our southwest zones for higher end storm coverage at 00Z Fri while somewhat drier air begins to filter into the Four Corners. Storm motions should also be very slowly toward the S or SE for central/western NM as the high center aloft remains west of NM late Thursday. Upper ridge to slowly build and briefly shift eastward during the day Friday allowing for a mean 300-500mb high center to set up southeast of Gallup. With ample moisture in place, PWAT values still at or just above 1" at KABQ, and storm motions significantly slower and more erratic as compared to Thursday, localized flash flooding will remain a concern Friday PM especially over/below burn scars. The upper ridge will steadily strengthen and expand northward over the weekend and early next week with the primary centroid migrating to near the Four Corners by 00Z Monday and to northern UT or southwest WY by 00Z Wed. During this period, steering winds will remain seasonably weak and erratic again on Saturday before a transition to more enhanced N to S or NE to SW steering flow develops early next week along the southeast flank of the anomalously strong ridge to our northwest. Atmospheric moisture will remain plentiful and above average for a vast majority of the area throughout the weekend into Monday, especially central and southern areas. Time series of modeled PWATs indicate a slight upward trend at KABQ reflecting the northward shift of the ridge and influence of moist easterly flow that could pose more serious FF concerns for SC/SW areas this weekend. Then we await to see if a Rex block or high over low upper- air pattern evolves by the middle of next week as advertised in medium range guidance. KJ 52/41 && .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy to windy conditions will set up over the eastern plains of NM today, a bit anomalous for mid July. Otherwise, the occurrences of strong or gusty winds will be limited to thunderstorm outflows as the active stretch of scattered to numerous storms continues over northern and central NM through early next week. Moisture, humidity and the storm count should all increase significantly today with temperatures being moderated to near to slightly below normal readings. Storm motions will be quite variable over the next several days, increasing a bit today with generally an eastward heading, but this will be veering each day into the weekend. Many storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall, and/or flash flooding, especially over burn scars or during periods of slow-moving storms. After today’s higher wetting rain prospects, drier air that will start seeping back into the northwestern corner of NM may limit the number of storms in this area. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones... NMZ201>219-227-228-241. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 358 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 NMZ201>241-151000- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 358 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Abundant moisture and instability combined with a disturbance aloft will result in numerous thunderstorms today and tonight. The thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy to torrential rainfall with localized areas receiving in excess of 2 inches under the strongest storms in less than an hours time. Areas that have recently received heavy rainfall will be most at risk for flash flooding. In addition, burn scars from recent wildfires will also be extremely vulnerable to flash flooding. Storm motions will generally be toward the east or southeast. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become very heavy at times. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms on Thursday may also produce large hail and wind gusts to 50 mph across the northeast and east-central plains. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx. 41
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
219 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021
NMZ213-216-142045-
Upper Rio Grande Valley-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
219 PM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TAOS COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
MDT...
At 218 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Ranchos De Taos, or 9 miles west of Taos, moving
east at 25 mph.
Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Taos, Taos Pueblo, Ranchos De Taos, Arroyo Hondo, Talpa, Arroyo Seco,
Valdez, Los Cordovas and El Prado.
This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 239 and 260.
&&
LAT...LON 3659 10557 3636 10549 3636 10551 3638 10554
3634 10557 3634 10585 3646 10588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 257DEG 22KT 3642 10574
GuyerThe Albuquerque radar (KABX), 107 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:57 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Trained spotters near Jaconita reported flash flooding in the area from heavy rain. The spotters' truck became stuck in the flood waters and mud flow, but no injuries were reported. Damages are estimated for water damage to the truck.
Law enforcement reported that water was flowing over County Road 84 and Reservation Road 101 around Pojoaque which forced the closure of the roadways. Water was also reported to be flowing across New Mexico State Road 503 in Nambe, but it was not closed. No damages are known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 960305, 960304.