Deep monsoon moisture continued across northern Arizona with several flash floods.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Deep monsoon moisture continued across northern Arizona with several flash floods.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 3:23 AM MST, 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 323 AM MST Wed Jul 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered to widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected across northern Arizona through Thursday. Temperatures warm a few degrees by the weekend compared to the rest of this week, along with continued storm chances. && .DISCUSSION...Storm activity has increased across northern Arizona this morning as seen on radar. Showers from north of the 40 and west of the 89 look to be largely stratiform. South of the 40 storms are more convective in nature. These storms will have gusty winds and frequent lightning. Rainfall will also be included with the strongest of cells producing brief, heavy downpours with the potential for flash flooding and hail. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 5 AM for northern Gila County, Yavapai County Valleys and Basins and Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons. Thunderstorm activity for this afternoon remains tricky. Due to the cloud cover and storms overnight, daytime heating needed for instability will be hindered. Additionally, the atmosphere could be worked over and unable to produce as widespread or strong of storms as we witnessed yesterday. The general consensus is that activity will continue with the most widespread coverage across higher elevations. Lower elevations will see scattered showers and thunderstorms before all storms begin to dissipate late tonight. Uncertainty remains with location of these cells and strength. Potential hazards include flash flooding, frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds and hail in the strongest storms. Turn around, don't drown! Thursday through the weekend, the typical monsoonal induced thunderstorms look to persist in the afternoon hours. Storms will fire along the Rim and higher elevations before moving across lower elevations. Starting Monday, this looks to become more widespread across northern Arizona through, at least, mid-week. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Mainly VFR conditions prevail for the duration of the TAF period. Storms are currently moving across KPRC with the strongest storms dropping conditions to MVFR with gusts above 40 mph. Showers and thunderstorms with the same potential conditions will continue over higher terrain before moving into lower elevations into tonight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across northern Arizona through Thursday. Wetting rains and flash flooding are possible each day. Winds will remain between 5-15 mph, except near thunderstorms where gusty and erratic winds are favored. Friday through Sunday...Scattered thunderstorms continue into the weekend, most favored in east central Arizona. Expect mild temperatures and a low to moderate Haines Index each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM MST early this morning FOR AZZ018- 037-038. && PUBLIC...Kobold AVIATION...Kobold FIRE WEATHER...Kobold For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1040 PM MST TUE JUL 13 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 NW SUPAI 36.31N 112.76W
07/13/2021 COCONINO AZ OTHER FEDERAL
3.93 FOOT RISE ON HAVASU CREEK.
&&
BEPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
239 AM MST Wed Jul 14 2021
AZZ008-037-141015-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County Mountains-
239 AM MST Wed Jul 14 2021
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR YAVA, JUST WEST OF THE PRESCOTT AREA IN
YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 315 AM MST...
At 236 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Skull Valley, or 22 miles west of Prescott Valley, moving southeast
at 20 mph.
Half inch hail, heavy rainfall, and winds in excess of 30 mph will
be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Skull Valley, Kirkland and Yava.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3463 11297 3474 11291 3480 11280 3451 11258
3430 11278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0936Z 312DEG 17KT 3454 11279
ELSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 324 AM MST Wed Jul 14 2021 AZZ008-037-141100- Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County Mountains- 324 AM MST Wed Jul 14 2021 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE PRESCOTT AREA IN YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 400 AM MST... At 320 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near and southwest of Prescott Valley, moving southeast. Half inch hail, heavy rainfall, and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Prescott Valley, Prescott, Dewey-humboldt, Wilhoit, Walnut Grove, Groom Creek Subdivision, Kirkland, Walker, Poland Junction, Wagoner, Skull Valley, Prescott Gateway Mall, Iron Springs, Yavapai Campground, Downtown Prescott, Ponderosa Park, Mayer, Indian Hill West Prescott, Oak Knoll Village and Lower Wolf Creek Campground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding, especially on any burn scars including the Goodwin Scar. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 3448 11282 3467 11261 3450 11206 3407 11251 TIME...MOT...LOC 1020Z 312DEG 49KT 3430 11241 EL
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 159 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:31 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was flowing across a one mile stretch of Highway 61 west of St Johns between mile markers 362 and 363.
Heavy rain over the southern slopes of Mt Elden caused flash flooding in northeast Flagstaff. The water overwhelmed drainage systems and was flowing rapidly down streets (up to two feet deep). A video on social media showed a Prius floating down the street and crashing into a full sized pick-up truck. Water was flowing 6 feet deep in a low water crossing. Famous Route 66 had 2 feet of water flowing over it in town.
A flash flood rushed down the Tatahatso Wash/Slot Canyon into the Colorado River (38 miles down stream from Lees Ferry). A commercial river trip with 30 people and two large raft had set up camp at the mouth of the wash for the night. The flash flood washed away the camp. Four people were injured and one person died.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood, Coconino | 2021-07-14 | 29 | Female | Camping | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 977542, 977543, 978387.