Cold air remained in place behind an Arctic front that moved through the region on Valentine's Day while another upper trough was deepening as it crossed the southern Rockies. Snowfall amounts up to 11 inches were reported in the Sacramento Mountains.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Cold air remained in place behind an Arctic front that moved through the region on Valentine's Day while another upper trough was deepening as it crossed the southern Rockies. Snowfall amounts up to 11 inches were reported in the Sacramento Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 4:26 AM MST, 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
426 AM MST Tue Feb 16 2021
.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
Generally VFR except at TCS where conditions remain IFR and will
likely remain in IFR through 16z with CIGS 005-010. Thereafter
CIGS for all TAFS will be 050-100 becoming 250 late in the period. Winds
will remain light through much of the morning but are expected to
increase by afternoon with 240-270 with sustained speeds of 15-20
and gusts 25-30 knots. Winds across LRU and ELP are a bit
uncertain with potential for higher than presently indicated in
TAFs. SHRA will also be possible this afternoon with SN possible
at TCS in the morning. Chances remain below 30 percent all
locations. Best timing for precip for TCS will be between 18 and
00z and 21 and 03z for DMN, LRU, and ELP. MVFR may occur during
any rain shower.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...238 AM MST Tue Feb 16 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
We will be warmer today, but we will also see a chance for lowland
rain showers and mountain snow showers. 6 to 10 inches of snow
will be possible in the Sacramento Mountains through Wednesday
morning. In addition to the precipitation chances we will see
windy afternoon conditions today. For Wednesday, we will continue
to see a slight chance for precipitation, but we won't be nearly
as windy. Thursday will be dry, but continued cool, then for
Friday and into the weekend, we will see warmer temperatures under
mostly clear skies. This weekend weather is looking very nice.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM..Today (Tuesday) and Tonight...
Our next storm system is a jet streak rounding the large trough
covering much of the CONUS. The jet streak is over CA and AZ and
will continue to move this way throughout the morning with plenty of
high clouds preceding it. As flow aloft increases, arctic air will
continue to be gradually displaced back east, and this process,
combined with increasing high clouds, will help keep morning lows
warmer than last night. Locally breezy conditions will also be
possible, especially towards the AZ border, but the stable, arctic
air mass will keep winds light for most locations the rest of this
morning.
As the day progresses, the nose of the jet will begin to enter
Southern NM, increasing lift. Precip chances will begin to increase
initially this morning for the Gila and Sacramento Mountains, then
the northern lowlands, before spreading south throughout the
afternoon and evening, departing southern Hudsepth county by
midnight Wednesday. Most of the precip will be rain for the lowlands
with snow levels above 6000 feet for much of the day. Lowlands could
see a brief wintry mix or periods of snow in the morning hours. This
is especially true for areas across Sierra county this morning and
for areas near the International Border tomorrow night. If any snow
reaches the lowlands, impacts should be low and/or brief. For the
mountains, snow will be more impactful with 1-3 inches across much
of the Gila with higher totals on the peaks leading to a winter
weather advisory for that area. The Sacramento Mountains look to see
the brunt of the snow with 6 to 9 inches though the NAM brings
totals closer to a foot. A winter storm warning is in effect for
locations above 7500 feet with an advisory for the surrounding
areas. For the lowlands, most locations will see rainfall totals
under 0.10".
Wind will be the other story with this system. A lee trough is
expected to develop across Eastern NM, on the eastern edge of the
eroding arctic air mass, with a trough axis trailing into the CWA.
Winds will increase area wide with strongest winds expected to be
across the Southwest where pressure gradients will be tightest.
Areas further east will be dependent on how quickly the arctic air
erodes as the cold air tends to keep pressure higher and conditions
more stable. There is a considerable difference in winds between the
NAM and GFS with winds, related to differences in pushing the arctic
air mass east. A wind advisory is in place for the southwest, but
one may be needed for the higher elevations of Otero and Hudspeth
county if the GFS verifies. Either way, winds will begin to subside
after sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM...
By Wednesday morning the main upper level trough axis will be just
to the east of New Mexico. The GFS, NAM, and EC models indicate
that a short wave will work down the back side of the trough and
across southern New Mexico. The short wave won't have much
moisture to work with, but it may have enough energy to give us a
continued slight chance for lowland rain showers and mountain
snow showers. Precipitation totals should be light in both the
mountains and lowlands. By Thursday, the upper level trough will
be well to our east and a dry and cool northwest flow aloft will
set up. This will clear out any remaining clouds, but it will
continue our below average temperatures.
On Friday, we will start a warming trend. High temperatures on
Friday will be 8 to 10 degrees warmer than Thursday's highs, but
that will still be around 5 degrees below average for this time of
year. For Saturday, we will see a zonal (west to east) flow
develop across the area which will help give another 8 to 10
degrees of warming which will put Saturday's highs 3 to 5 degrees
above average. For Sunday, we will see our upper level flow
becoming more from the southwest, as a short wave trough dashes
across New Mexico. This system will not have much moisture to work
with, but it will give us a breezy to windy afternoon on Sunday.
The short wave trough will usher in some slightly cooler air as
well, so that Monday's highs will cool a few degrees, but the
highs will still be a couple of degrees above average.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire concerns are relatively low for tomorrow. An approaching storm
system will bring precipitation and wind to the area. For the
lowlands, precipitation will primarily be rain though accumulations
will be light, generally under 0.10". The increased clouds and
precip will help to hold min RH values into the 40s. The mountains,
mainly above 6000 feet could see a few inches of snow in the Gila
and several inches in the Sacramento. Winds will be breezy to windy
with strongest winds across the southwest portion of New Mexico.
Vent rates will be varied with best vent rates in the Rio Grande
Valley and Bootheel and worst vent rates for the Tularosa Basin and
Texas counties.
Wednesday will feature quieter but drier weather. Min RH values will
be in teens across the Bootheel while in the 20s for remaining
lowland locations. Winds will be well below critical thresholds with
vent rates mainly good to excellent. Temperatures will cool for
Thursday, but then warm thereafter. Min RH values will drop, but
winds are expected to be light Wednesday through Friday.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 52 36 54 30 / 30 30 20 10
Sierra Blanca 50 31 49 25 / 30 30 30 30
Las Cruces 49 29 51 25 / 30 30 20 0
Alamogordo 45 23 47 21 / 60 20 10 10
Cloudcroft 24 11 26 9 / 80 30 20 20
Truth or Consequences 48 28 49 25 / 30 20 20 0
Silver City 37 24 41 22 / 70 30 20 0
Deming 50 26 52 21 / 30 30 10 0
Lordsburg 47 25 52 21 / 50 30 10 0
West El Paso Metro 52 35 54 32 / 30 30 20 10
Dell City 50 24 52 20 / 30 30 20 30
Fort Hancock 52 31 55 24 / 30 30 30 30
Loma Linda 44 30 47 26 / 30 30 20 20
Fabens 54 32 55 27 / 30 30 20 20
Santa Teresa 50 29 52 25 / 30 30 20 10
White Sands HQ 48 33 49 30 / 30 30 10 0
Jornada Range 47 26 49 23 / 30 30 10 0
Hatch 48 26 51 24 / 30 30 20 0
Columbus 53 31 54 27 / 30 30 20 0
Orogrande 47 26 49 23 / 40 30 20 20
Mayhill 36 18 38 15 / 70 30 10 20
Mescalero 33 14 35 11 / 80 30 20 20
Timberon 33 14 35 11 / 80 30 20 20
Winston 41 15 41 12 / 60 20 20 0
Hillsboro 45 21 48 20 / 50 30 20 0
Spaceport 47 24 48 22 / 30 20 20 0
Lake Roberts 37 18 41 14 / 80 40 20 0
Hurley 41 21 46 17 / 60 30 20 0
Cliff 44 24 49 20 / 80 30 20 0
Mule Creek 39 25 44 22 / 80 30 20 0
Faywood 42 24 46 23 / 50 30 20 0
Animas 53 27 54 22 / 40 40 10 0
Hachita 52 26 53 21 / 30 40 10 0
Antelope Wells 54 33 54 25 / 40 50 20 0
Cloverdale 47 31 49 27 / 40 40 20 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
for NMZ405>407.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for NMZ402-414-
416.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Wednesday for NMZ415.
TX...None.
&&
34-Brown/15-BriceThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall amounts around the zone included 7.0 inches 3 miles north of Bayard, 5.5 inches 4 miles north of Silver City and 5.0 inches 4 miles west-southwest of Silver City.
A maximum snowfall amount reported was 11.0 inches 2 miles southwest of Cloudcroft. Other reports included 10.4 inches in Sunspot and 7.3 inches in Cloudcroft.
The Cooperative Observer in Sacramento reported 7.0 inches of snow.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 942780, 942781, 942782.