A series of weather systems brought several rounds of winter weather to South Central Texas from February 11 through February 18. The next round of winter weather came February 16 and 17.
Every event with a place to put it; 20 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
A series of weather systems brought several rounds of winter weather to South Central Texas from February 11 through February 18. The next round of winter weather came February 16 and 17. A surface trough developed along the Texas coast and an upper level jet streak moved over the top of it. This created warm advection above the boundary layer and another round of freezing rain over the eastern half of the area. The final episode of winter precipitation came February 17 and 18. The main upper trough axis moved across Texas and cooled the deeper atmosphere. The height falls led to upward motion that produced precipitation. A few spots had a mix of wintry precipitation at the start of this episode, but it all turned quickly to snow.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 6:59 PM CST, 1 hour 46 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 659 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 .UPDATE... Overall, forecast is in good shape at the present time. Made some minor adjustments to the grids, the main being to add a mention of snow possibly mixing in across our extreme northern CWA with the onset of the precipitation. HRRR model soundings look favorable for this before the warm nose strengthens by midnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/ AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail, but MVFR then IFR conditions are expected overnight as moisture increases across the area. As the moisture increases, areas of freezing rain will be expected across the northern areas with AUS the most impacted. Will prevail freezing rain and sleet there as some sleet will also be possible. For SAT will tempo the mention of freezing rain as probabilities are less to the south. Precipitation should move east of the terminals by 12z with LIFR conditions possibly persisting through the morning and into the afternoon hours tomorrow. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/ .DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY... Key Messages: * Another round of mainly freezing rain and sleet will returns to South Central Texas tonight with a second round of Wintry Mix expected tomorrow night into Thursday. Additional ice accumulations will combine with existing ice on the ground to make outdoor travel dangerous through Thursday. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, blankets, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. * Rotating power outages expected to continue. * Check frequently on those without heat and water. Protect plants and pipes. Provide warm shelter for pets. SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... While we had another day of sunshine for most of the morning temperatures have remained below freezing across South Central Texas. Low 20s to a few 'lucky' areas seeing lower 30s are where temperatures are this afternoon. As of now cloud cover has begun to spread into South Central Texas from the south and from the northwest. While some western areas may see the sun again tomorrow, areas along the I-35 corridor will be entering another cloudy and wintry weather pattern. Synoptically the CONUS is experiencing a large scale trough with embedded shortwaves. One of those shortwaves will move across north Texas overnight tonight into tomorrow. At the same time a surface low pressure system will form across the middle Texas Coast. It is these two features that will provide the lift needed for the next round of wintry precipitation on the way tonight. Model soundings support mainly a freezing rain pattern for tonight as overnight lows again drop into the 20s area wide due to cold air advection at the surface. In the mid-levels areas of warm air advection will work to produce a slight warm nose. This could lead to some sleet mixing in across parts of the Hill Country, Austin Metro and parts of Williamson and Lee Counties. This will end up being a bit of a saving grace across these areas in terms of overall ice accumulations. In general across theses areas as much as a tenth (0.10) of an inch of new ice accumulation is possible. A few areas may see as much as a quarter (0.25) inch of new ice, especially across parts of Williamson and Lee Counties, but again, if more sleet is able to mix in these overall accumulations will be lower. Further south along the I-35 corridor towards the San Antonio, along the Coastal Plains and west across the Edwards Plateau as much as 0.05 inches of new ice are possible. In terms of timing the two areas of precipitation should begin to form late this evening into the overnight hours: one across the Hill Country with the shortwave, and the other across the southern Edwards Plateau and Coastal Plains with the Coastal Low. Precipitation should fill in and become widespread across all of South Central Texas by midnight. While no one should be out on the roads or really considering travel at this point, precipitation does generally come to an end after sunrise tomorrow, with lingering mix of rain and freezing rain east of Interstate 35 through the late morning to the noon hour. Tomorrow afternoon looks dry across the area with some sunshine returning across the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau. Afternoon highs should range from the low 30s across northern areas to the upper 40s and 50s in area that see sunshine. This should at least start to help melt the snow and ice across some areas. Takes Deep Breath, looks for the light at the end of the tunnel, one more event to go! The base of the trough will finally move across Texas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Models are still iffy with this event, having pushed it back more into the day on Thursday which will be discussed below. Of the two events (tonight vs. tomorrow night) this is certainly the lower confidence of the two, but it has started to become a clearer picture today. Rain mixed with freezing rain should begin during the evening and early overnight hours Wednesday across the Rio Grande Plains and then spread eastward through the night, changing to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow after midnight. Accumulations with this activity are expected to generally be light, but certainly won't help the ongoing situation with snow (from Sunday night) and ice (from tonight) on the ground. Based on the uncertainty with the second system we have elected to make no changes at this time to our Winter Weather Hazards. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for most of the area due to the threat of ice accumulations with tonights system. With lower impacts along the Rio Grande for tonights event have continued the Winter Weather Advisory in those areas. Future shifts will need to look at the second event and determine if an upgrade to Winter Storm Warning is needed, or if the Winter Weather Advisory will suffice. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... Wintry precipitation chances hold over into the day on Thursday as the base of an upper level trough advances across the region with a tailing cold front. The latest thinking is for the greatest concentration of wintry precip will occur to the west of I-35 across the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau. For further east, couldn't rule out a slight chance for wintry mix. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding this expected final round of wintry precip as the latest model guidance vary on the amount of QPF that develops with the associated lift from this system. The thermodynamic analysis show that the temperatures will be more marginal at the surface while colder air moves in aloft with the base of the trough, helping to erode the pre-existing warm nose. A wintry mix prevails into the morning on Thursday but may transition to nearly all snow later during the day with the last of the precipitation before the conditions dry out with the base of the trough moving eastward. Snowfall accumulations will continue to be refined regarding this system but areas mainly to the west across the Southern Edwards Plateau into the Rio Grande Plains are expected to see around an inch of accumulation while areas further east see little to no accumulation. Temperatures have been lowered slightly with areas seeing highs in the low to mid 30s to the north and east while locations further west and south may get into the low 40s during Thursday afternoon. With skies clearing into Thursday night, do expect another very cold night with temperatures in the teens to lower 20s when waking up Friday morning. Upper level pattern transitions to a more zonal flow from Friday into the weekend with a warming trend back towards climatological average by Sunday as surface winds finally become southerly as we go through the weekend. Plenty of sun will be expected early in the weekend before becoming more cloudy into Sunday. A shortwave trough passing across the central Plains on Sunday into early Monday sends a cold front across South-Central Texas sometime Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This frontal passage looks to stay generally dry but a stray light shower cannot be completely ruled out. Drier and slightly cooler air does push in behind the front into Sunday night and early Monday morning. Monday then warms up during the day as solar radiation takes over under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures continue to warm into Tuesday and midweek with zonal flow aloft and the return of a southerly surface flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 20 35 25 35 19 / 80 20 20 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 19 35 24 35 18 / 80 20 20 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 23 39 28 38 20 / 60 20 30 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 19 34 22 34 18 / 80 10 20 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 26 54 31 41 23 / 20 - 50 40 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 17 34 23 34 16 / 90 20 20 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 22 48 27 39 19 / 30 - 40 30 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 19 37 24 36 18 / 70 20 30 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 25 36 28 36 20 / 80 50 20 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 23 43 28 38 21 / 40 10 30 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 24 44 28 39 20 / 40 10 30 20 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for Atascosa-Bandera- Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Edwards-Fayette- Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Lavaca-Lee- Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for Dimmit-Frio- Kinney-Maverick-Uvalde-Val Verde-Zavala. && Short-Term/Aviation...Hampshire Long-Term...17
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 342 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-172145- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde- Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala- Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit- 342 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas.. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight. A Winter Storm Warning goes into effect at 6 pm this evening through tonight for most of South Central Texas for primarily freezing rain and some areas of sleet. Across western portions of South Central Texas where winter precipitation should be lighter, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6 pm this evening through tonight. Travel will remain difficult tonight as ice and snow persist on some roads and water on other roads refreezes tonight. Scattered power outages are also occurring. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect across South Central Texas through early Thursday morning. The first of two rounds of winter type precipitation continues into Wednesday morning, and a second round of winter weather is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Additional ice accumulations from the first round tonight into Wednesday morning will be in the 1/10 to 1/4 range across the warned area with lighter amounts below 5 hundredths of an inch possible in the advisory area. The freezing rain expected through Wednesday will bring renewed accumulation of ice on roads, especially on roads that continue to have ice from earlier systems. Light additional accumulations of ice and and snow will be possible from the second disturbance Wednesday night and for Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter are encouraged to submit ice and snow accumulations and reports of ice and snow related damages to the National Weather Service. Brady
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
20 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall on the 18th covered the county with one to four inches. Lake Medina Shore received 4.0 , one to two inches fell in Medina, and 1.3 in Camp Verde.
Freezing rain caused roads to ice quickly. An estimated quarter inch of ice accumulated on driveways near Cedar Creek.
Freezing drizzle reported in San Antonio and a light glaze developed. San Antonio International Airport reported 0.09 of ice accumulation. Freezing rain deposited 0.15 of ice at the KSAT studios in San Antonio. The ice event was followed by snow on the 18th. Snow totals ranged from 1.0 in several locations to 4.5 in Leon Valley. Some snow totals include 2.8 in Timberwood Park, 2.0 in western San Antonio near Sea World, 2.1 in China Grove, 2.0 in Shavano Park, 2.0 in Converse, 2.0 in Hollywood Park, and 2.3 at the San Antonio International Airport.
Freezing rain and sleet reported in Burnet at 10:51 pm on the 16th. A quarter inch of ice was measured on tree branches near Burnet.
A trained spotter in Lockhart measured 1.5 of snow.
Freezing drizzle was reported on I 35 between San Antonio and New Braunfels with a glaze of ice developing on roads. Freezing drizzle reported with roads glazing over with ice and becoming very difficult to drive on in New Braunfels. Freezing rain deposited 1/8 to 1/4 inch of ice on plants and exposed surfaces in northwestern New Braunfels. Approximately one tenth of an inch of radial ice reported in southeastern New Braunfels. Just over a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation in Spring Branch. The ice event was followed by snow on the 18th. Snowfall totals in the county ranged from 1.0 in several places to 5.3 in Canyon Lake. Some other snow totals include 2.6 in Bulverde, 2.7 in Spring Branch, and 2.4 in New Braunfels.
Snowfall on the 18th left 2.0 on the ground in Pearsall and 2.5 in Moore.
Freezing drizzle reported at the NWS office in New Braunfels. Sidewalks and roads began to glaze with ice. By the morning of the 17th of ice had accumulated. Freezing drizzle and icy conditions reported on I 10 in Seguin with multiple accidents. Freezing drizzle and icy road conditions reported in McQueeney. The emergency manager reported freezing rain accumulated 0.25 inches of ice in Seguin. The ice event was followed by snow on the 18th. Snowfall totals in the county ranged from 1.0 in Seguin to 2.5 in Cibolo. There was also 2.2 in Garden Ridge, 1.5 in Zorn, and 1.5 in Geronimo.
Freezing drizzle and rain glazed roads with ice in San Marcos. We found a picture on social media of measured 0.25 inches on trees in Buda. We received a picture of about four tenths of an inch of radial ice accumulated near Driftwood. Measured two tenths of an inch of radial ice accumulation near Kyle. The ice event was followed by snow on the 18th. Snowfall totals in the county ranged from 1.5 in Kyle to 2.5 in San Marcos.
Freezing rain and black ice reported by TxDOT on I 10 in both directions between Leon Springs and the Kerr/Kimble county line. A person measured 1/8 inch of ice on tree branches in Waring. The ice event was followed by snow on the 18th. Snowfall totals of 2.0 to 3.5 were reported in Boerne.
A home owner estimated between 1/2 and 3/4 inch of ice on trees and branches in Ingram. There were reports of a significant amount of power poles down across the county due to ice. The area from Mountain Home up through Harper was the hardest hit with widespread tree damage as well.
Snowfall on the 18th covered Brackettville with 7.5 .
Estimated 0.40 of ice accumulation near Long Mountain.
Snowfall on the 18th blanketed the county. Snow totals included 3.9 in Rio Medina and 2.5 in Hondo.
Snowfall on the 18th left 4.5 on the ground in Leakey.
Freezing rain and sleet, mixed with a few flurries, reported with a glaze developing quickly on sidewalks and roads. The ASOS at Austin Camp Mabry reported 0.18 ice accumulation. Broadcast media reported power flashes in the Austin area. Significant ice accumulation was leading to reports of power lines down and carports collapsing due to the weight of ice and snow. Ice buildup is estimated to be at least 1/4 inch. Picture on social media showed a 0.25 inch layer of ice measured from the Lakeway area. New ice and sleet accumulation of 0.25 inch occurred overnight in Leander. Ice accretion on tree branches and exposed surfaces had increased from 0.5 inches to 0.75 inches. More tree branches were breaking. We received a picture of measured half inch of ice in Leander. Estimated 0.2 inches of ice near Creedmore and Mustang Ridge. Approximately 2/5 inch of ice accumulation on tree branches in Wells Branch. A trained spotter reported 0.25 inches on tree branches in Lakeway. A person reported 3/16 inch of ice on tree branches in Pflugerville. Close to 1/4 inch of ice was measured on tree branches in South Austin. The ice event was followed by snow on the 18th. Snowfall totals in the county ranged from 1.2 in Lost Creek to 3.8 in Jollyville.
Snowfall on the 18th covered the county with 1.5 in Sabinal to 5.0 in Uvalde. There was also 3.5 in Concan.
A strong snow band setup over Val Verde County leading to record snowfall in Del Rio. The CO-OP observer there measured 11.2 which is the new record snowfall. Elsewhere in the county there was 5.0 in Lake View. Langtry Co-op station reported 13.5 for the event.
One quarter of an inch ice was measured at A. W. Grimes Blvd and US 79 in Round Rock. One quarter inch of radial ice accumulated in Jollyville. Freezing rain deposited 0.4 of ice in Cedar Park. A public report of 0.4 of ice in Brushy Creek. A trained spotter measured 1/4 inch of ice in Georgetown.
Snowfall on the 18th brought 0.3 to Pandora and 0.1 to Floresville and Stockdale.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 943756, 943757, 943758, 943760, 943761, 943763, 943764, 943765, 943766, 943767, 943769, 943770, 943771, 943772, 943773, 943775, 943776, 943778, 943779, 943780.