An upper low was moving through the Central Plains. An associated cold front was moving through South-Central New Mexico with wind gusts ahead of it reaching 71 mph east of the Organ Mountains.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
An upper low was moving through the Central Plains. An associated cold front was moving through South-Central New Mexico with wind gusts ahead of it reaching 71 mph east of the Organ Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 9, 10:16 PM MST, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1016 PM MST Thu Dec 9 2021
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected. BKN-OVC skies will continue tonight with
bases between 050-100. SHRA is developing across the International
Border at this hour though much of it is likely not reaching the
ground. This will gradually change with light rain becoming
possible for all sites though with less confidence for TCS. SHRA
should end by morning.
Wind will be the main story with sustained speeds of 15 to 20
knots tonight and a few gusts up to 30 knots. Winds will be
gustiest beneath any showers. Winds will strengthen further
tomorrow afternoon with all sites expected to top 25-30 knots with
gusts of 35 to 40, possibly isolated higher to 45. LLWS and low
level turbulence will also be possible given strong signal for
mountain wave activity tonight into the morning hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...342 PM MST Thu Dec 9 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching upper level storm system will bring us strong winds
tonight and into Friday along with a chance of lowland rain and
mountain snow showers. Parts of the the Sacramento Mountains above
7,000 feet could see 3 to 6 inches of snow. We will also see
cooler temperatures on Friday, then on Saturday, we will be even
cooler with high temperatures running a few degrees below average.
For Sunday, we will be dry and start a warm up, so that by
Tuesday our high temperatures will be running 10 degrees above
average. For Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, we will see a
slight chance for rain west of the Continental Divide.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday...
Our two features of note are on satellite imagery, one racing down
CA and the other beginning to move east northeast as a response.
These two features will converge over the Borderland, and adjacent
northern areas of the Desert Southwest. As a result, winds aloft
begin increasing tonight, in addition to developing precipitation
chances. The trough and all it's pieces and glory will swing through
and begin moving east into Friday evening, and so much of the wind
will diminish, along with any leftover lingering precip chances for
area mountains.
For the details.. Winds increase tonight, especially along mountain
peaks and east, in response to a lowish level jet type feature and
increasing winds aloft. Starting a High Wind Warning at 04Z for
portions of the Sacs as a result. Fluttered between keeping it a
wind adv and upping it to a HWW, opted to upgrade to HWW. Speaking
of winds, values will increase along portions of the lowlands as
well, mainly from the mid to late morning hours through the
afternoon. Much of the winds will diminish below criteria, and in
general, by the end of the short term, Friday at 6PM. As the troughs
swing through, first the short wave near the Baja, minor rain
chances will develop across the lowlands, mainly from Midnight to
6AM. All amounts are expected to be light across the lowlands. Area
mountains, due to the combination of the first trough and being
clipped by the second trough to the north, in addition to the
orographic impacts, will experience 0.3 to 0.75" of precip, some of
the being snow. Models have come into better agreement, mostly, with
some of the hi-res remaining on the high end of totals, some near 10
to 12", and globals the lower end, 2 to 4". Think the actual amounts
will be between these two solutions, and so have 5 to 6 inches
across Cloudcroft and vicinity, enough for advisory level snows.
Snow will be heaviest during the predawn through the midday hours
Friday, with near blizzard like conditions at times. Snow will taper
to snow showers Friday afternoon, then diminish Friday evening if
had not done so already. All the products, wind and winter, expire
Friday evening. Temps will be a mix of slightly above seasonal along
the Rio Grande to a little below normal across area mtns.
High Wind Warning Values..30 to 40 mph Gusts to 60 mph.
Wind Advisory Values..25 to 35 mph Gusts to 45 mph.
Winter Weather Advisory..3 to 6 inches of snow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
The long term forecast picks up Friday night into Saturday. As we
head through the night on Friday, the moisture, clouds and
stronger winds will move off to our east and we will start the day
off cold, we will see lows temperatures Saturday morning 15 to 20
degrees cooler than what we will see Friday morning. But having
said that, our lows Saturday morning will still be a degree or two
above average. Saturday we will be sunny, but cool as the cool air
settles into the area. High temperatures on Saturday will run 2 to
5 degrees below average. But enjoy those cool temperatures,
because on Sunday a warm up begins. By Sunday afternoon, our flow
aloft will turn back toward the southwest and that will begin to
warm us up, slow at first, with high temperatures on Sunday
rebounding back to around 5 degrees above average. On Monday our
southwest flow aloft will continue and so does the warm up with
high temperatures running around 10 degrees above average. In
addition to the warmer temperatures, mid and high level moisture
will begin to move in aloft. On Tuesday the southwest flow
continues and we will add another 5 degrees to our afternoon
highs. More moisture will continue to stream across the western
part of the region. By Tuesday evening into Wednesday, previous
model runs had given the western half our our region a good chance
of rain (snow levels will be 10,000 feet or higher). The current
runs of the extended models keep most of the the rain west and
north of our area. We will see what future model runs will bring.
Wednesday afternoon will high temperatures running well above
average.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A storm approaches tonight with increased winds, especially across
area mountains. In addition, precipitation chances develop area
wide, focusing on the Gila and Sacramento mountains, with minor and
spotty rain accumulations for the lowlands. Snow levels look to
remain above 7500 ft with 3 to 6" of total snow accumulation
expected over the high peaks and ridges of the Sacs, and 2 to 4"
across the Blacks and higher elevations of the Gila through Friday
afternoon. Winds will remain gusty, 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts
from midnight Friday through the afternoon hours across the mtns.
Snow showers will wane as the storm lifts away Friday PM (dry across
the lowlands Friday PM).
On the backside of the system on Friday cooler conditions will
exist, lingering into Saturday. RH will be elevated as a result
(despite drying conditions). Quieter weather is expected this
weekend as high pressure builds aloft over the region.
Thanks in large part to increased winds, ventilation will be a mix
of Fair to Good today, then Good to Excellent tomorrow, degrading to
Poor this weekend.
&&
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 55 62 35 56 / 40 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 51 58 32 53 / 20 0 0 0
Las Cruces 48 58 28 53 / 30 10 0 0
Alamogordo 47 60 25 54 / 40 20 0 0
Cloudcroft 28 35 17 35 / 60 50 0 0
Truth or Consequences 49 59 26 51 / 10 10 0 0
Silver City 41 47 27 50 / 60 60 0 0
Deming 47 58 27 54 / 30 20 0 0
Lordsburg 41 55 25 55 / 50 60 0 0
West El Paso Metro 55 62 37 57 / 40 10 0 0
Dell City 37 62 30 57 / 30 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 45 66 32 60 / 20 10 0 0
Loma Linda 45 55 32 51 / 40 10 0 0
Fabens 49 64 33 58 / 30 10 0 0
Santa Teresa 46 60 30 55 / 40 10 0 0
White Sands HQ 53 60 33 54 / 40 10 0 0
Jornada Range 36 58 26 52 / 30 10 0 0
Hatch 43 59 26 54 / 20 10 0 0
Columbus 47 59 31 55 / 30 10 0 0
Orogrande 51 60 29 54 / 40 10 0 0
Mayhill 37 48 22 50 / 40 40 0 0
Mescalero 30 46 18 46 / 50 50 0 0
Timberon 29 44 18 44 / 50 40 0 0
Winston 35 50 15 50 / 30 30 0 0
Hillsboro 44 55 26 52 / 30 30 0 0
Spaceport 40 59 24 52 / 10 10 0 0
Lake Roberts 33 47 20 52 / 70 70 0 0
Hurley 42 50 22 51 / 50 50 0 0
Cliff 34 55 14 58 / 60 60 0 0
Mule Creek 33 50 25 52 / 60 60 0 0
Faywood 44 50 27 51 / 30 40 0 0
Animas 42 58 27 57 / 50 50 0 0
Hachita 42 57 25 55 / 40 30 0 0
Antelope Wells 42 58 32 56 / 40 30 0 0
Cloverdale 44 51 32 53 / 70 50 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for NMZ403-407>414-
417.
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for NMZ415-416.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Friday for NMZ415.
TX...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for TXZ418>424.
&&
35/15/34Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 617 AM MST Thu Dec 9 2021 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-101330- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 617 AM MST Thu Dec 9 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight An approaching Pacific storm system and cold front will make for breezy afternoon conditions across the Borderland today. Otherwise and mild temperatures and fair weather. This evening and overnight the storm system brings increased moisture and potential for isolated to scattered rain and mountain snow showers. Winds will also increase over area mountains and east slopes. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Sacramento mountains. Rain amounts should be generally light, in the trace to 0.25" range. Snow should remain above 7500 ft in the trace to 2.5" range. Some wet roads and gusty winds could make travel hazardous overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Friday the gusty and blustery winds continue through the midday hours as the storm system begins to exit and pulls a cold front through the region. Shower will be ending through the morning with clouds eroding and temperatures staying cooler. The weekend and early next week looks fair and dry with high pressure over the area. Breezy conditions return Wednesday with the approach of another Pacific storm. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. But real time reports of road conditions, possible blowing dust visibility, and wind damage always needed. Bird
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Salinas Peak Mesonet site reported a peak gust of 64 mph. The Apache site on the White Sands Missile Range recorded a gust to 59 mph.
A peak gust of 71 mph was recorded at the White Sands Missile Range Main Post. A gust of 62 mph was recorded at the White Sands Museum and 60 mph at the Globe Mesonet site.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 996363, 996366.